Good morning. My name is Audra and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the General Mills Third Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. All lines have been muted to minimize background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference over to Jeff Siemon, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Audra, and good morning to everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning for our Q&A session on our third quarter fiscal 2024 results. I hope everyone had time to review the press release, listen to our prepared remarks, and view our presentation materials, which we made available this morning on our Investor Relations website. It's important to note that in our Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. Please refer to this morning's press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information, which may be discussed on today's call. I'm here this morning with Jeffrey Harmening, our Chairman and CEO; and Kofi Bruce, our CFO. Let's go ahead and get right to the first question. So, Audra, if you can get us started, please.

We'll now take our first question from Andrew Lazar at Barclays.

Great, thanks very much. Good morning, everybody.

Good morning, Andrew.

Hi there. Jeff, in the prepared remarks you mentioned the expected impact in the fourth quarter in terms of reported results from the lapping of the trade expense benefit last year. If we put that aside, which sort of seems like more mechanical. How do we think about momentum for the company in the fourth quarter in terms of what you'd expect in terms of in-market performance and consumption right as the company looks to really build momentum going into fiscal ’25? Would you expect sort of an acceleration from what we saw in fiscal 3Q or something similar to 4Q?

Thank you, Andrew. I agree with your point. The timing of the trade phasing is primarily mechanical. Overall, we are pleased with the third quarter results and the improvement we observed in our underlying performance, particularly in North America retail and pet segments. As we mentioned prior to the quarter, we anticipated three external factors that would influence our performance in the latter half of the year. The first factor was the lapping of last year's pricing, which we expected to benefit from, and we're seeing positive effects in the third quarter. The second factor relates to lapping the reduction in SNAP benefits from a year ago, which we anticipated seeing as early as March and April, and there are indications that this is starting to improve. The third factor involves lapping shelf availability. We have noted some impact from the first factor in our third quarter results, which is encouraging. Outside of the mechanical issue you highlighted related to trade phasing, we project our fourth quarter sales to resemble the third quarter in terms of year-over-year performance. While exact predictions are challenging due to inventory fluctuations and other variables, we expect performance to be fairly similar to the third quarter. However, there are many variables at play in the fourth quarter, so we will monitor how these factors evolve in relation to the external environment.

Got it. Got it. And then obviously Pet was a significant source of upside to organic sales versus at least sort of street expectations. What really drove the outperformance and I guess more importantly do you see this as sustainable? I didn't know if you had like an all channel consumption number for Pet this quarter and whether you see that sort of continuing to improve sequentially from here? Or should we not get ahead of ourselves based on what we saw on 3Q. Thanks so much.

The third quarter results for Pet were quite strong and exceeded our expectations. We observed better performance, particularly driven by the life protection formula and improvements in our cat dry business, Tastefuls, as well as our wet business. However, we recognize that there is still a significant amount of work to be done in Pet, especially concerning Wilderness and specific channels. What gives me confidence about the third quarter is that our focused efforts have led to notable improvements, indicating the strength of the Blue Buffalo brand and that we are addressing the right issues. We are aware of the challenges facing Wilderness and have a plan to get it back on track, though it will take a couple of quarters rather than just a month or two. I'm cautious about declaring victory in Pet, despite the encouraging signs that our strategies are effective. Additionally, we achieved good profitability increases in the quarter, and our productivity is high in Pet. We are also in the process of addressing the disruption costs incurred during the pandemic, which is reflected in the third quarter results. Overall, I'm pleased with our execution, but it's still early to predict the future trajectory, although we do see some positive indicators in Pet.

Great. Thank you so much.

Yes.

We'll move next to Ken Goldman at JPMorgan.

Hi, thank you. You know with the understanding it's too soon to quantify or really even discuss next fiscal year. I just wanted to clarify something at first. And that's at CAGNY, I believe you said you were hoping for a year, even though it's too early, that was relatively benign. And with the understanding, again, no numbers at this time, I assume, what does relatively benign mean in the context of your longer term outlook? And I'm asking because you have easy comparisons in Pet, you're hopefully still performing well in market. You said previously you'll have H&M savings above 4% or you hope to. Inflation should be, you know, disinflationary for lack of a better word. You're going to get help from lapping SNAP. I could reel off a lot of potential positives into next year, but you weren't yet ready to kind of say it would be on track and I'm just trying to get a better sense of, you know, a month later than CAGNY you're in a little bit of better position to be somewhat more specific about how to think about maybe some of the puts and takes for next year?

Ken, you mentioned a lot of points we discussed at CAGNY, and it's great to hear that. You're correct that when I refer to a more favorable environment, I'm hoping for a couple of things, particularly regarding inflation. Currently, it's at 4%, down from double digits last year, and the long-term expectation has been around 2% to 3%. Hopefully, we're moving in the right direction. We'll provide guidance in June about our outlook for next year. Ideally, if we can experience a more stable inflationary situation and avoid supply chain disruptions while maintaining strong productivity, that would set a positive foundation. However, we still need to determine how various external factors will affect us in the fourth quarter, especially as we address SNAP, on-shelf availability, and competition. It’s still too early to draw firm conclusions. I can say that the third quarter unfolded as we anticipated, with the advantages of prior pricing changes coming through as expected. While I won't comment on fiscal year 2025 right now, I do want to emphasize that our productivity remains strong and inflation is easing, though it still persists. We'll have a clearer picture of our top-line performance in the coming months.

I knew going in I'd be partially unsatisfied, but that was helpful. Thank you. And then quick follow-up, you mentioned that, and just now, again, you mentioned SNAP reductions coming in the U.S. In a number of states, a decent chunk of those reductions have already been lapped. I don't know if your data would show this, but I don't mean to put you on the spot, but is it fair to say that you've seen improvements in these states? Or is it just a little more complicated than that? I'm just trying to get a sense, because so much of what you're talking about depends on a little bit of that macro and how consumers react?

Yes, we have observed a small benefit in the states where we've lapped the SNAP benefits. However, it's important to note that this will take time to fully unfold; it's not an immediate change. Additionally, while we have seen some benefit, it's not substantial. There are complicating factors at play, such as changes in pricing and on-shelf availability, which add to the complexity and make it harder to establish a clear correlation. In summary, we are seeing a slight benefit in the areas where we've lapped the SNAP program so far.

Thank you so much.

Yes.

We'll move next to Max Gumport at BNP Paribas.

Hey, thanks for the question. So first on Pet, it looks like the action plans you discussed for the Pet segment last quarter are starting to bear fruit. So on wet pet food specifically, I think you inflected from a minus double-digit decline in 2Q to growth in 3Q. I was hoping you could talk about any early signs of success you might be seeing with these more value-oriented multipacks? And how they may or may not inform your view of what the '24-pound bag could be doing for Wilderness over the coming quarters in pet retail? Thanks.

Yes, we have definitely seen improvements in the wet pet food sector, though I’m not sure if we are back to full growth yet. We have observed positive changes in this business where we adjusted our price points to be more favorable. While we haven't restored these price points everywhere, it's a process that will continue into the fourth quarter. We are optimistic that the measures we've taken are yielding the benefits we anticipated. Regarding Wilderness and the 24-pound bags, it's a more complex situation. We need to return to advertising Wilderness in a way that resonates with consumers. We have some strategies in the works for that. Collaborating with the Pet Specialty channel, which has faced challenges with Wilderness, is also crucial. Although they are eager to work with us, we still have more work ahead in that area and need to bring back certain SKUs. I wish the situation with Wilderness were as straightforward as simply reintroducing the 24-pound bags, but it will likely be more complicated and take longer. That said, we are encouraged by the findings from our analysis of wet pet food and the actions we have undertaken that appear to be aligning with our expectations.

Max, this is Jeff Siemon. I just want to add a point regarding the net sales of wet food that you mentioned were up, which we did not include in our prepared remarks. That was accurate. They have increased modestly. There are some inventory differences when you look at the individual sublines. Therefore, retail sales of wet food are still down. They are improving, but we still have some work to do to fully enhance their performance. However, you are correct that from a net sales perspective, they were up slightly in the quarter.

Yes, I think I saw that in the slide deck. And then one follow-up would be just given the clean balance sheet and the continued emphasis on portfolio reshaping, I think it's safe to assume you're actively looking at acquisitions. I think past commentary would suggest you're focused on snacking and pet food categories and also businesses that play in your eight-core geographies? That said, I'm just curious, given some of the recent industry news, how you might view Ice Cream, especially knowing that it is one of your global platforms? Thanks, I'll leave it there.

Thank you for the question. Regarding portfolio shaping, our approach hasn't changed. We are satisfied with the progress we've made, including the 20% adjustment so far. However, we recognize there's more to accomplish through both acquisitions and divestitures to return to our desired growth levels. We have been careful in our acquisition strategy and will only pursue opportunities that benefit shareholders rather than just aim for growth. We continue to maintain this discipline. We are exploring areas that could enhance growth, including the pet category and certain snack and meal categories. Additionally, while I won't comment on recent developments in the Ice Cream sector, I want to emphasize our strong position in that market. Haagen-Dazs is a fantastic brand, performing well in Europe and Asia, and it's one of our five key global platforms. We are optimistic about this brand, especially since it is in the premium segment and is experiencing growth.

Next, we'll go to Chris Carey at Wells Fargo.

Hey, good morning. So, just one follow-up and another question. Jeff, you mentioned in response to Andrew's question that fiscal Q4 revenue should look similar to Q3. Were you referring to the consumption or actual organic sales growth in the quarter?

I was referring to the consumption growth; looking at the timing of some of our expense phasing, there was probably about a 3 point headwind on what we report. What I meant was the sales out, if you will.

Yes, perfect. Okay. That's what I thought. And Kofi, just on, you know, clearly sales were better-than-expected. Gross margins, I think were a bit light relative to street expectations, namely given positive pricing, easing inflation, strong productivity. Can you just expand a bit on maybe some of the key factors in the quarter that offset some of those positives? I think, you know, inventory work down, the volume deleverage relative to the year ago growth? Just any context on those items and how durable they might be into your Q4 and potentially a bit more medium term? Thanks.

Yes, sure. I appreciate the question and I think you've got the plot on the key drivers. The only thing I think would be helpful to add, just to give you some additional perspective, is that the inventory absorption, which was frankly one of the side benefits of supply chain stabilization as we've been able to take down our levels of inventory we're carrying and while that was a benefit to working capital and cash flow it was about a 70 basis point headwind on gross margin, which I think would probably close most of the gap that you're referring to.

Okay, perfect. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

You bet.

Next is Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

Thank you very much. I have a broader question. Within NAR, there seems to be some increased pressure in areas like meals, baking, and snacks, while other segments appear to be doing well. I'm curious if, after this significant pricing phase, you've noticed any general changes in consumption within these categories. Do consumers seem to be engaging more in some areas compared to others? I'm trying to understand any shifts in the value proposition of your brands and the overall positioning of the category. Thank you.

Yes, I'll start with. Let me start in a little bit different place and I'll work my way back maybe to your question. I would say one of the shifts we've seen since the beginning of the pandemic is more food consumption at home. And so food consumption at home is a couple points higher than it was going into the pandemic. So roughly about 86% of food is served at home. And the reason for that is because food served at home is such a great value. And it's about 4 times less expensive to eat at home than it is to eat out at a restaurant on average. And so as Americans have felt the challenges with inflation, part of the way they deal with value is that they eat food at home rather than out. And obviously, we were a great source of value when it comes to that. That's actually probably one of the biggest shifts. Interestingly, private label shares are about the same now as where they were before the pandemic. In the categories that we're in, private label is about 10% of the category. In fact, they're down 10 basis points from when the pandemic began. And overall, food and beverage is about 19 points. And so we haven't actually seen a big shift when it comes to value there. When it comes to specific categories, one of the things I'm most pleased with our performance over the last few years is our ability to hold our growth share in half our categories over that time. And so that's so it's broad-based. And, you know, we've seen some big gains in our business, like Pillsbury, refrigerated dough, which has done quite well and, and meals and baking over time. The same with fruit snacks. Both of those businesses are up 60% over the last few years. And we've consistently gained market share in those businesses. Obviously we haven't in Pillsbury this year because private labels getting back on shelf, but over the course of time. So we feel really good about that. We've had some struggles in bars as you well know. But I can say one of the things I'm pleased with as we look at our business now, Nature Valley is back to growing share. And it was even before one of our competitors had a big recall. So it's not a recall induced kind of activity. We've had some good new product innovation in Nature Valley. Our marketing is working in Nature Valley. I think we shared some of that at CAGNY. And so, but broadly speaking, I would say we haven't seen huge changes category by category in consumption.

All right, fair enough. And then just quickly, you called out in the prepared remarks, just a little bit of pressure, maybe from the consumer in China and also Brazil. And you just kind of give us the quick kind of state of the union, what you're seeing in both countries. That's all. Thank you so much.

In China, the biggest factor affecting our business is the Wanchai Ferry frozen dumplings. Last year, Chinese consumers were mostly at home due to lockdowns, leading to higher at-home consumption, making our comparisons very difficult this year. This is the main challenge we face in China. Additionally, store traffic in China has decreased slightly compared to previous levels, likely because consumers are feeling the impact of a slowing economy. In Brazil, we are facing a situation similar to that in the U.S., where we are dealing with pricing comparisons from last year. We hope to see our Brazilian business stabilize over the next quarter or two. The key challenge in Brazil has been significant increases in commodity prices, which have raised our input costs. We are currently working through those comparisons in Brazil just as we are here in the U.S., and I hope that as we approach the fourth quarter, the comparisons will start to ease.

All right, super. Thank you so much.

We'll move next to Robert Moskow at TD Cowen.

Good morning, everyone. This is Jacob Aiken-Phillips on for Rob. Two quick ones, so I understand the trade timing 3% impact this year in 4Q. But last 4Q, you talked a lot about inventory reduction headwinds, and you said about 3% then. So did you ship ahead in 3Q? Or is there some other factors that we're missing?

Yes, let me answer that to the best of my ability. If I didn't get the question exactly right, feel free to ask it again, as I'm not trying to avoid it. In the third quarter, we built inventory a year ago, and this year was relatively stable. If you look at our Nielsen data in North America retail, there's a 2-point difference. Some of that is due to our growth in unmeasured channels, which is outpacing measured channels, and only a portion of it is due to inventory growth. Our inventory is in a good position as we exit the third quarter. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, it's hard to predict what will happen. Last year, we accumulated several points of inventory in the fourth quarter. So, you might wonder if we will build inventory this year as well. The answer is I'm not really sure; predicting inventory changes is quite challenging. What I can say is that we feel we are in a solid position with our retail customers, both in North America retail and in Pet. We don't have excess inventory, but we have enough. We're not expecting any significant changes in the fourth quarter, and if there are any changes, we believe they will be modest. We'll let that develop as we move forward.

Yes, you raised a good question. Thank you. Kofi, regarding the reduction in incentive compensation, I understand there's a trade timing headwind in the fourth quarter, but are there any changes to your expectations for investing in media or in the brands as we move into the fourth quarter? Or do you anticipate it will be similar to last quarter?

No, I appreciate the question. One of the things that worked really well, and I want to emphasize it didn't get overshadowed by our strong profit performance this quarter, is that we have continued to invest in our brands at a mid-single-digit rate. I do not anticipate that changing as we head into Q4, even as we achieve better-than-expected profitability in a year where we have experienced some pressure on the top line. From my perspective, we will continue to maintain our current approach. I do not foresee a significant change. Therefore, I expect an increase in our media investment around the mid-single-digit range, which will position us solidly ahead of our top line expectations.

Thank you so much.

You bet.

We'll take our next question from David Palmer at Evercore ISI.

Hi. A question on North America retail and what you're looking to see from that segment as you think about fiscal 2025. Obviously, that's a key high-margin segment, and there's some big categories that make a lot of money for you in that segment. And I'm wondering, for those of us that are watching the scanner data and thinking about how you'll be thinking about the business and whether you can be sort of on track for fiscal '25? What should we be looking for that will give you that confidence? For example, do you need to see volume approach flat year-over-year? Are there a couple of categories that you're reviewing a little bit more closely than others?

Yes, I would say, without providing guidance for fiscal '25, I'm trying to address the essence of your question. I believe we can expect continued improvement in North America retail, and hopefully, in the Pet segment as well. Since you inquired about North America retail, I’m optimistic about ongoing enhancement. We noticed some positive movement in the third quarter, and we’ll see how the fourth quarter unfolds, particularly regarding volume improvements. We hope to see this trend broadly across the board. Naturally, we always keep an eye on the cereal category and our performance there, as well as snacks in Mexico, among other major categories. Generally speaking, our goal is to return to a position of growth as a company, and we will keep investing in marketing to support that growth. In a year where we anticipate strong productivity and with inflation being relatively manageable, we hope to reinvest some of that productivity into marketing expenditures, enabling us to continue growing our top line. We’ve performed well in the middle of the profit and loss statement, but the primary challenge this year has been achieving growth. It is crucial for us as a company—and really for everyone—to get back to a growth trajectory.

You mentioned early signs of the lack of SNAP subsidy being a headwind. What are you observing? Is this something you've noticed in the past week or two? Is it related to specific categories that are more family-oriented or meal-oriented? What insights do you have on this? Thank you.

Yes, I want to highlight a couple of important points about SNAP, which I've mentioned before, but I feel it's necessary to reiterate because they are significant. Firstly, we've observed some benefit, but it's not going to be a major change. It won't happen suddenly and will gradually increase over time. The benefits we anticipate will be modest. While we believe there will be some gain, it will be relatively minor. Additionally, I want to emphasize that the advantages accrue based on specific categories. They will not be uniform across all categories. As we analyze this, we will combine the data for simplicity, but some categories will perform differently than others. Particularly, when it comes to serving families, certain categories within our portfolio tend to gain more from SNAP benefits compared to others.

Hi, good morning.

Good morning.

Hi, Pam.

Just in thinking about some of the headwinds that may be abating over the couple of quarters, do you have an estimate of how much you think that SNAP may have impacted your overall growth or industry growth? And also just the improvement in on-shelf availability, how much of a tailwind can that be to your growth outlook?

I appreciate your question, Pam, and I apologize for not providing a quantifiable answer. There are too many variables at play. We are also dealing with the current pricing climate. However, I believe the impact of SNAP benefits is fairly modest. They are present, but not significant. Nonetheless, I welcome any benefit, no matter how small, at this time. Additionally, improvements in on-shelf availability will also offer a small advantage, but that will develop gradually rather than being a one-off event. We expect to begin noticing the effects of this improvement towards the end of April and the beginning of May, which should carry into our first quarter. When we speak with you in June, we hope to provide a clearer picture of what we've observed, as both of these factors will have had some time to manifest by then.

Okay, understood. And then just on corporate expense, on a pretty notable reduction year-on-year. What's contributing to that? And should we be extrapolating these levels going forward?

I appreciate the question. The primary driver in the quarter was a reduction in our incentive-based comp accrual as we obviously are tracking a lower top line performance and comping last year. where we had to increase it pretty sizably on outstripping our top and bottom line performance last year. So I expect this to be a benefit that we'll see specific to the quarter. The other item is related to our recall insurance recovery, which we booked in the quarter. So those are specific to the quarter, and I wouldn't expect that to be part of the base expectation going forward.

Okay, thank you.

You bet.

We'll go to the next question from John Baumgartner at Mizuho Securities.

Good morning. Thanks for the question. Jeff, I wanted to come back to the value-seeking consumer. And in North America retail, the areas where volumes have still been lagging. You look at cereal, go, frozen snacks where category pricing is up one-third to 50% in 2019. What can we do at this point? Any levers left to maybe enhance the volumes that are a bit more independent of the macro. I mean can you go to the pack change as you're doing in pet, can you innovate or market consumers into higher prices? Or is it just that some categories overshot on pricing, relative to what consumers can bear and now it's down either taking prices the other way or just waiting for consumers to grow into these levels financially?

Thank you, John. I’d like to highlight a few points. Firstly, there has been a noticeable increase in input cost inflation across the categories you mentioned, specifically over 30%, with a figure around 32% in the past three years. This inflation is the primary reason behind the rising prices we've experienced. When we analyze each category, we believe our pricing is in line with levels seen before the pandemic. It's crucial to understand that consumers have different ways of seeking value. They appreciate the benefits our brands offer, which is why we continue to invest in media and marketing. Our products deliver valuable attributes; for example, Pillsbury offers quick, easy meal solutions. Additionally, consumers look for value through different purchasing behaviors. Some opt for bulk buying at discount stores, like large boxes of cereal or multiple packages of snacks, while others may buy fewer items at dollar stores. This shows that there isn't a single type of consumer; everyone seeks value in various ways, particularly when feeding their families. We don’t believe our pricing has surpassed inflation; in fact, it hasn’t. We feel confident about our position in the market. As we address some past issues related to on-shelf availability and pricing, we believe we can continue to grow. In the third quarter, for instance, we gained market share in about 45% of our categories in North America retail, which is a significant improvement from the previous quarter. We anticipate further progress as we overcome these challenges.

Alright. Thanks, Jeff.

Okay. I think that's all the time we have. Before we wrap here. I think I'll pass it back to Jeff for some closing comments.

Thank you all for joining us this morning. I want to express our optimism regarding our third quarter results, especially the progress we’ve made in our competitive position within our categories. We are performing effectively, as anticipated. Much of this success stems from our previous pricing strategies and our ability to maintain strong execution. Our innovation efforts have been fruitful, and we’ve expanded our distribution. Overall, we are implementing our plans successfully. As we approach the fourth quarter, we are aware of some timing-related issues with expenses. However, we anticipate that our sales from the third quarter will roughly mirror those results in the fourth quarter. Our primary objective now is to regain top-line growth while remaining disciplined in managing our costs. We believe this combination will benefit us moving forward. There are several factors we will navigate in the coming months, including the expiration of the SNAP benefits and our on-shelf availability. We will provide a clearer outlook for fiscal '25 by June, including the benefits we expect to see in the next few months.

Great. So we'll wrap it there. Thanks, everyone, for the time this morning. Feel free to reach out if you've got follow-up questions throughout the day. Have a good day, everyone. Thanks.

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.