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VRLLOG 340.0000 INR +2.04%
VRLLOG · VRL Logistics Limited
340.00 INR +6.80 (+2.04%) At close · Nov 13
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Earnings call · FY2027 Q2

VRL Logistics Limited (VRLLOG) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript

Concluded Nov 5, 2026 Audio replay
Nov 5, 2026 42:59 90 turns
Period
FY2027 Q2
Runtime
42:59
Sources
3 artifacts
Open full screen Slides 34

Transcript & audio

42:59 Audio
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to VRL Logistics Q2 F527 Earnings Conference Call, hosted by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Alok Dionar from Murtilal Oswal. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Alok Deora Analyst — Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the 2QFI27 earnings call of AI Logistics. So, from the management side, we have Mr. Sunil Nalwadi, the CFO of the company. I will now hand over the call to Mr. Nalwadi for his opening comments, and then we can take up the Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Yeah, thank you, Alupji. Good morning to all the participants. I am Sunil Nalwadi, CFO of VRL Logistics. I warmly welcome you all to VRL Logistics Q2 and half-year FI27 earning conference call. Thank you. Thank you for taking the time to join us today. Our financial results and investor presentations of the quarter and half year ended September 26 have been uploaded to the stock exchanges and are also available on our company website. The first half of FY27 has been particularly encouraging and marks a robust new beginning for VRL Logistics Limited with strong profitable growth. Significant margin expansion, improved cash generation, and balance sheet strengthening. We have witnessed a meaningful improvement in our operating and financial performance, supported by the benefits of our earlier freight rate hikes and rationalization initiatives. Strong customer engagement, improved network penetration, and continued emphasis on operational efficiency. I am also pleased to share that the company has delivered a strong performance during Q2 of FI27, with significant improvement across total income, EBITDA, and profitability. More importantly, this performance reflects an improvement in the quality of our earnings, with higher freight relations, better cost absorption, and stronger operating leverage contributing to our expanding margins. Let me begin with our financial performance for the quarter on a year-on-year basis. Our total income for the quarter 2 is increased by approximately around 20% year-on-year to 967 crores compared with 804 crores in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. This growth was primarily supported by an approximately 11% increase in goods transport volumes from 10,07,000 tons to 10,79,000 tons. Along with a 9% improvement in freight realization per turn from Rs 8,799 to Rs 8,840. The improvement in realization reflects the positive impact of our freight rate hike and rationalization initiatives. Our continued focus on securing remunerative business and maintaining pricing discipline has enabled us to improve revenue quality while retaining and expanding our customer base. Our EBITDA for the quarter increased to 226 crores from 158 crores in quarter 2, registering an impressive growth of 43%. Correspondingly, the EBITDA margin expanded to 23.3% from 19.7% in the corresponding quarter last year, an improvement of 367 basis points. Profit after tax also witnessed a substantial improvement, increasing to 1.03 crore from 50 crores, representing growth of approximately 1.06%. The PAT margin improved significantly to 10.7% from 6.2%. And also here I would like to mention that the quarter PAT is more than the last year, half year profit. The operating... Operating environments during this quarter remain challenging, particularly due to geopolitical developments, crude oil price, volatility, and the resulting increase in fuel procurement cost. Fuel continues to be one of our major operating expenses during the period. The cost per litre increased significantly from approximately 85 rupees to 97 rupees, putting pressure on our operating cost structure. The increase also affected the benefits we traditionally derive from bulk fuel procurement. However, through timely and calibrated prior trade adjustments, we were able to pass on a substantial part of these cost increases to our customers while maintaining healthy volume growth. At the same time, our continued focus on cost management and operating leverage helped us to contain the impact of inflation across most of the operating expenses, including employee costs. Employee cost declined from 18% to 16.48%. Of total income, in spite of increase in absolute terms from 147 crores to 159 crores, administrative expenses declined from 2.28% to 1.43%, largely reflecting lower legal and professional expenses incurred in the last year. Other operating expenses also declined from 10.48% to 10.06%. And we also maintained better control over toll and dhammali expenses as a proportion of income, notwithstanding the increase in toll plaza, higher roll toll rates effective from April 1, and increased transportation volumes as well. There were some moderate increase in vehicle running expenses primarily associated with higher driver incentives along with modest increase in laurier service. Overall, these improvements in expenses ratio demonstrate our ability to manage costs effectively, improve asset utilization, and protect operating margins in a challenging cost environment. On the business front, our primary focus continues to be the expansion of our Wolfstein Police business through a wider branch network and deeper penetration into existing and new markets. During this quarter, we added 51 branches, taking as a total number of new branches added during the first half to 67 numbers. This expansion has strengthened our geographical reach and enabled us to access new customer segments and business opportunities. We have also seen encouraging traction in customer acquisition alongside onboarding new customers. We have successfully regained business and tonnage from certain customers who had earlier discontinued services following our freight rate rationalization and strategic withdrawal from low-margin contracts. This is an important development because it demonstrates that our disciplined pricing approach along with unmatched service quality is helping us improve productivity without compromising our ability to retain and attract customers. As you are aware, VR has a strong presence in the B2B less-than-truck load segment, supported by a diversified customer base of over 10 lakh customers across multiple industries. One of the key strengths of our business model is our collection mechanism. A substantial majority of our LTL business operates through paid and to pay segments, under which the freight is collected either at the time of bookings or upon delivery of the containment. This substantially reduces our dependence on extended customer credit and supports efficient working capital management. Consequently, our trade receivable cycle remains very healthy at approximately hardly around 10 to 11 days. Our diversified customer base, relatively low customer concentration, and extensive branch network and owned asset operating model continue to provide us with a competitive edge over other operators in the industry. Similarly, the sequential performance is also on a growth trend, and both Q1, Q1, Q2, Q2 put together, the H1 results are also commendable numbers. An important highlight of the first half has been our strong cash generation. The cash generated from operations before working capital changes is around 415 crores compared to around 314 crores in the last first half year. Net cash generated from operating activities increased to 357 crores from 334 crores. We have strategically developed these internal generated funds towards business expansion, infrastructure development, and strengthening our balance sheet. Our capital expenditure for the first half stood at around 158 crores, comprising around 76 crores in quarter 1 and 82 crores in quarter 2. The expenditure was primarily towards the addition of commercial vehicles and investment in land and building facilities at a strategically important location including Vijayawada, Nagpur, Lucknow and Raipur. These investments are intended to strengthen our operational infrastructures, support future network expansion and facilitate long-term consolidation of our logistics hubs. Despite these investments, we have successfully reduced our net debt to 337 crores as of 30th September, compared with 440 crores as on 31st March 2026. Our net-to-debtivity ratio has consequently improved to 0.3 times from 0.4 times at the end of FI 26. Our own assess strategy continues to remain an important differentiator for VRL. As of the end of H1-FI27, our fleet comprised 5,941 vehicles. We continue to follow a disciplined fleet rationalization program involving the replacement and crafting of older vehicles while improving the utilization of our existing own fleet. Approximately 76% of our total fleet is jet-free, while around 11% is fully depreciated and continues to operate in optimal condition. Thank you. This provides us with a meaningful advantage in terms of lower finance costs, better asset utilization, and operating leverage. Before concluding, I would like to update you on the company's share-by-back program. Considering the substantial improvement in productivity, healthy cash generation, and the strength of our balance sheet, the board had recommended a share-by-back program aggregating up to Rs. 280 crores at a price of 320 per equity shares. The proposed wayback covers up to 87 For 87.5 lakh equity shares, representing approximately 5% of the company's paid-off equity share capital, the shareholders approved the proposal through a postal ballot concluded on October 3, 2026. The recall date for determining the shareholder eligibility was October 22, and the tendering window operated from October 27 to November 2, 2026. The tundering window has now closed, and settlement of the bids is scheduled for November 9, 2026. The promoters are not participating in this buyback. We believe this program represents a responsible allocation of surplus capital and reflects our confidence in the company's financial strength and long-term prospects. The consequential reduction on equity share capital and other equity will be reflected in the financial results for the 9-month period ending December 31, 2026. Following completion and settlement of the buyback, in accordance with the applicable requirements, the reduction in equity will also support further improvement on return on equity, return on capital employed, as well as earning per share going forward. With this, I would like to conclude my initial remark. Now the session is open for question and answer. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking her question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Jainam Shah from Equidus Securities. Please go ahead.

Jainam Shah Analyst — Equirus Securities

Yeah, thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on your good side of numbers. Sir, if we have a strategy over the last two and a half years since June 2024, we started doing this price hike and all those adjustments to our business. Our realization has improved from around six rupees per kg to around nine rupees per kg as of now. Over a period of time, there has been, of course, some, you can say, volume that has gone from our, you can say, books to some other parties. And now, we are eventually back on, you can say, double-digit kind of a volume book, which probably we have not seen over last, maybe 10-12 odd quarters. How do we see going forward 2-H panning out and also for next few years? Like the strategy of passing on to the cost will continue or will there be any competitive pressure because of our pricing or what is your view on this pricing to volume kind of like pricing and volume you can say settlement strategy?

Yeah, one thing on the pricing front, initially, for the current financial year also, we expected our tonnage growth at around 8% at the beginning of the year. Now, in the first half, we already reached around 10% growth in our tonnage. So, this shows very clearly that there is no pressure of the freight rate on the customers. So considering the inflation cost of CB with beta increase in fuel cost, labor cost, so many other increases. Now, most of the operators in the industry, actually, they are increasing the rates. So considering this environment, it will not bring any pressure on the volume's growth.

Jainam Shah Analyst — Equirus Securities

Good morning, sir. And how do we see volume growth going forward for the 2H and for, let's say, near to medium term on next 2 to 3 years' time? This growth trajectory will eventually continue given that we are back on the, this is the world again kind of a growth?

Yeah, basically, this 9 to 10% growth in the volume growth will continue. And this first half, we already did around 9.5% growth in the 10H. The similar growth we are expecting even in the second half of the year.

Jainam Shah Analyst — Equirus Securities

Got it, sir, got it. And, sir, one more thing on, you can say, commodity parts, any specific commodity or, let's say, goods that has been doing really well for us in terms of volume roll, or it's across that has been playing out for us?

No, across all industries, because it is a widespread operation for what we are having, but considering these festival seasons and all, now, SMCG and Textile, there is a good growth compared to the industrial and other segments, but those are, again, steady growth across all the segments.

Jainam Shah Analyst — Equirus Securities

And just last question from my side, we have been always suggesting EBITDA margin of 21% whereas we are quitting the guidance overall. So by doing any kind of rate adjustment, what kind of margin do we have in mind or we should take this margin going forward as well for the future years?

Yeah, around 21-22% is a sustainable EBITDA margin even going forward.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Krupa Shankar from Aventus. Please go ahead.

Krupa Shankar Analyst — Aventus

Good morning, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. Congrats on the creature of numbers. So, my question first was on the cash generation part, sir. So, it has been quite strong, quite robust. So, just wanted to get a sense around how do you look to deploy cash over the medium term? Would you primarily focus on more KPIs towards land for hubs or would it be towards trucks or are you looking at more of dividend payout?

Basically, in the second half, again, we are expecting a catalyst expenditure of around 150-160 crores, which is including the vehicles as well as some of the one or two properties what we are planning. And the rest of the cash flows will be used for the time being reduction in a debt further.

Krupa Shankar Analyst — Aventus

I was talking more about longer-term, sir, I think, because you have seen very strong...

Longer-term, again, see, our capex is going to be continued on the investment on vehicles and some of the selective properties. And the properties where actually we are investing, most of the investments again we are looking to, by the existing properties which we are using for the last 10-12 years, which are more suitable for our operation. For example, the Naupur where we acquired, it is an existing facility. The Bangalore what we acquired just around one and a half year back, again it's an existing facility. Similar to that actually we are looking in other places, but it all depends on the cash flows and again the debt structure, but the capital expenditure will be at least around 250-300 crores every year it will continue.

Krupa Shankar Analyst — Aventus

Considered a good question. Yeah. Understood. So, sir, looking at the teenage growth being quite a percent for this year, while on a low basis, on a structural basis, are you... Seeing any volumes coming back because of elevated pricing in an express business or something, or is it, is there some structural trends you are looking at with respect to your business on your overall growth, sir? So, can you estimate the, yeah, sorry.

The structural is basically since we are opening up more and more branches, those branches are contributing good volumes. And that trend is going to be continued. Say, for example, again, I would like to mention the state like UP, Bihar, West Bengal. Our presence is not up to the mark even as of today. So we are concentrating on those areas to add more and more number of branches and structural changes. Say, for example, we are very strong at south and western market and north market as of today. So be it interstate as well as intrastate. But in southern market, on the both side, interstate and intrastate, we are very strong. So considering these, you know, experience, we want to replicate in the other zones as well. For example, now considering our branch expansion in northern and eastern part, the most of June-to-June actually the growth is very good compared to the southern market. So that is giving a lot of value addition or volume and sense in our overall growth in Tanish.

Krupa Shankar Analyst — Aventus

Understood. And this will also promote a lot of intercity movement, which will also have a favorable realization per turn. That understanding is also correct, right, sir? Good. Okay, understood. Fine, sir. I have more questions, but I'll get back in the queue. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mr. Archer Lohade from Nuama Institutional Act Equities. Please go ahead.

Archer Lohade Analyst — Nuwama Institutional Equities

Yeah. Good morning, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, two questions. First, you know, in terms of the volume growth, you said, you know, 19%. That is for second half. But what about medium term? You know, are we talking about 9-10% or the 7-8% what earlier we used to talk about?

Yeah, considering the present development, what we are seeing from the market, the 9-10% is an achievable target.

Archer Lohade Analyst — Nuwama Institutional Equities

Even for a medium term, sir? And if you could remind us, you know, what is the contribution of the new branches led volume, you know, how it has trended in last two, three, four quarters, if you could give us some sense. And how do you see it, that playing out?

Yeah, now the 60 plus branches, what we opened in the current year, those are contributing almost around 2% in the first half year, out of the overall 10% growth in volume.

Archer Lohade Analyst — Nuwama Institutional Equities

Right. Okay. Understood. The second part is, you know, the fuel prices. If, let's say, theoretically, fuel prices were to kind of come off, what happens in that case? Is there any automatic pass-through or, you know, you will be able to retain that benefit in that case?

No, in that case, basically, with the contractual customers, most of the agreements as of today, we are having a fuel escalation clause. So, based on that formula, whatever changes will happen, either it is increased or decreased accordingly, we have to pass it on to the customers. In case of non-contractual customers, again, the decision is, you know, on us, and there actually we are having a flexibility considering the route-wise analysis and the region-wise analysis, we can take a call, or even some commodity basis, we can increase or decrease the rates, depending on the fuel price.

Archer Lohade Analyst — Nuwama Institutional Equities

What's the contribution of the contractual customers, sir, in the total volume?

It's around 17 to 18% revenue as of now.

Archer Lohade Analyst — Nuwama Institutional Equities

Understood. Understood. Sorry, I missed on the margin. You think 21% to 22% is the new sustainable EBITDA margin? Have I understood that?

Yes, yes.

Archer Lohade Analyst — Nuwama Institutional Equities

Okay, got it. Thank you. I'll fall back in the future for any follow-up.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Madhuzati from Counter-Cyclic Investments. Please go ahead.

Madhuzati Analyst — Counter-Cyclical Investments

Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, I wanted to understand how does increasing commercial vehicle prices affect our freight rates? Do we see a one-time jump or how does the market generally, historically, how has that evolved into freight rate increases?

Normally, freight rate is not completely depending on the capital cost. Most of the freight rates are related to the fuel rates, actually how industry works, in India especially. Most of the freight rate, you know, determines based on the fuel price increase or decrease. About the capital cost, yes, there is one time some minor improvement or increase or decrease will happen, but it is not a direct link with the freight rates.

Madhuzati Analyst — Counter-Cyclical Investments

Got it. And sir, if I were to look at VRL from the next two to three years, because we are adding a lot of these branches, how should we see the realization per ton or realization improving either via more long-haul routes or would we like to continue our current route density in the sense that we are doing seven and a half, eight times capacity turns, if you can help us understand.

So basically, now the realization, the current year improvement, it is basically on account of increase in the freight rates. We did an increase at the beginning of the year from April 1st around 5% and in mid of May, we increased around 4%. So there is a 9% increase in the freight rates. So that is what is reflecting in the improvement in the realization. Now, going forward, because of addition of new branches and new roots, that is not a significant contribution to the realization. The realization is directly related to the freight rates.

Madhuzati Analyst — Counter-Cyclical Investments

No, sir, I was asking that would we like to move towards more longer haul routes where the realization is higher?

No, our, see, for example, in our case, wherever, of course, it is actually we wish to operate, but it is not a short haul or long haul. Now, for example, within the southern states, we are having more volumes within the state as well. So, margin-wise, across, if you take within state or interstate or interstate, more or less, it will be a similar number.

Madhuzati Analyst — Counter-Cyclical Investments

Got it. And sir, just one question was on these land and building investments that we are doing, sir. How do we decide the IRR or payback of these assets versus renting these out, if you can help us understand?

Their investments, see, for example, the facility what we acquired in Bangalore and all, we worked very strictly on the IRR. So there actually the return payback period was in the range of around 10 to 12 years. But in smaller acquisition, normally it is on a need basis and it is based on the requirement. So there actually, there is some, you know, variance will be there, but in spite of that, considering the requirement of those assets, actually we acquire those assets.

Madhuzati Analyst — Counter-Cyclical Investments

Sir, so how do we think about the overall ROC of our company because these are lower ROC assets if there is a 10 to 12 year payback period?

Now, considering our high margin business, definitely the ROCE will be much better. If you see, in the last year, we did almost around 25%. Now, considering the buyback and reduction in the capital, this year, we are expecting our ROCE will be at least around 30% plus.

Madhuzati Analyst — Counter-Cyclical Investments

Got it. Sir, that was from mine. Thank you so much and all the best.

Alok Deora Analyst — Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Yeah, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Krupa Shankar from Avengers. Please go ahead.

Krupa Shankar Analyst — Aventus

Yes, sir. Thank you for the follow-up. Just one question on the fleet side, sir. So, as I can see that the net vision of fleet has, or rather, you've scrapped more vehicles or sold more vehicles. And that's why the underlying tonnage is going up, right? So just wanted to get a sense around when you start procuring fleet, given that you've given a favorable outlook on the tonnage growth as well. And the second part is that you've also seen that most of the vehicles which have been scrapped or which are reduced is also of the higher tonnage. So just wanted to get a sense around your fleet procurement strategy. If you would stick to your 15 to 20 or if the density is improving, would you prefer to go higher up with respect to your sourcing around 25 to 30 tons?

Yeah, basically, we are looking for further expansion in the fleet, basically on a higher capacity vehicle going forward. And the numbers will be less, but overall capacity increase will be more or less equivalent to our tonnage growth. And predominantly, as a company policy, we wish to prefer to use our own vehicle or own capacity in the tonnage growth as well. To maintain, you know, good, higher operating margins compared to optional vehicles.

Krupa Shankar Analyst — Aventus

Understood. So, is it fair to assume that, you know, the scrappage of older trucks, which we were doing it for last a year and a half or so, to large degrees, is more or less the end of 10. And from here on, you would see that the gross addition would be much higher than the… Definitely. Right. Okay. Okay. Understood, sir. And second question was primarily on the profitability side. So, we typically see the employee hikes coming through in the third quarter. In the past, we have seen that. Any hikes or any cost elements which I missed out? Do you see any inflationary trend over there over the next six months or so, sir?

Yeah, we are examining, you know, again to consider the increment process, but shortly we'll inform about it. As of today, there is no specific timeline as such, but definitely we are working around it.

Krupa Shankar Analyst — Aventus

Right. So, as a broader sense, do you feel confident now that incremental cost escalations, be it your toll cost increase or non-fuel cost increase, can be passed on to customers and this price hikes, what you have been taking quite consistently over the last two years or so, would be a sustained trend over the medium term that confidence is still there with the management?

Definitely, see now the EBITDA level reached to almost around 23% plus. So considering all increase in toll expenses, other overhead costs, whatever it is, that impact will be not more than 1.5%. So considering given such increases, our EBITDA level definitely will be in the range of around 21-22%.

Krupa Shankar Analyst — Aventus

Understood, understood. That's all from my session. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Jain from Fair Value Equity Advisory. Please go ahead.

Nitin Jain Analyst — Fair Value Equity Advisory

Yeah, thank you for the opportunity and congratulations on an excellent spotter. My question is regarding fuel prices. As we know that everything is quite volatile now, and for the last two days, we have seen a meaningful correction in fuel prices. So, is there a possibility that if this situation persists, maybe in the next month or two months, we might have to take a correction in the fuel prices where we have taken a hike in the last two, three quarters? Is there a possibility that we'll have to take a reduction, and what kind of impact do we see that having on our growth as well as margins? That's all from me. Thank you.

Yeah, basically, if any fuel price changes, fuel price in India is completely regulated by the government. If any reduction on the fuel price, that too in a substantial number, at least around 5%, more than 5% or so, then definitely we have to rethink on the freight rates. If that is a scenario, then definitely we can pass it on that benefit to the customers, considering our optimum level of EBITDA percentages, EBITDA margins as of today.

Nitin Jain Analyst — Fair Value Equity Advisory

So, in that case, would we still be able to maintain our market?

Definitely. See, in that case, actually, we will have a further savings mode. Means, we can make some money out of it, even though reduction is there. But ultimately, we will take a call and pass it on to the customer, considering our optimum EBITDA margin size of today. We don't want to wish further make margin out of that.

Nitin Jain Analyst — Fair Value Equity Advisory

Right, right, right. And just one follow-up to that. So, in that case, will the bulk purchases become more efficient?

Definitely. See, the bulk purchases as of today, what is happening again, it is directly linked to the crude oil price. Now, see, the fuel, what we are getting from the, you know, if it is, say, 100 rupees as of today, 9,800 rupees. So, the bulk purchases, it is in the range of around 120-125 rupees. So considering this rate as of today, we are unable to buy the bulk purchase. If tomorrow assume that the scenario changes, definitely that option will be always open with us. And whatever savings we will do out of the bulk purchase, that is again will benefit to improving the margins and no need to pass on that benefit to the customers.

Nitin Jain Analyst — Fair Value Equity Advisory

Right. And just one last one from my side. If we take a correction in the fuel prices, would we see a temporary impact on the revenue growth then?

Yeah, obviously, revenue is a multiplication of volume and relation. If any small correction in the relation, that will impact on the revenue.

Nitin Jain Analyst — Fair Value Equity Advisory

Okay, okay, okay. That's very helpful. Thank you and all the best. Yeah, thanks.

Operator

Thank you. A reminder to all the participants, you can press star and 1 to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Divesh Jawar, an individual investor. Please go ahead.

Divesh Jawar Analyst — Individual Investor

Hello, am I audible? Yes, sir.

Operator

Yes, sir.

Divesh Jawar Analyst — Individual Investor

Yeah, so congratulations on a great quarter. I just want to... Check with the management that have we raised the Capex guidance any further after a good set, or we would continue with the Capex earlier projected?

Yeah, we wish to continue with the Capex what we projected.

Divesh Jawar Analyst — Individual Investor

Thanks, that's all from my side.

Krupa Shankar Analyst — Aventus

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Alok Deora from Mutilal Oswald. Please go ahead.

Alok Deora Analyst — Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Yes, sir. Just wanted to understand how the margin project works if we are going to do the similar version growth in 2H and if the cost structure remains largely the same or can only... Hello. Can you hear?

Yeah, please.

Alok Deora Analyst — Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Yeah, I was just trying to understand how the margins could shape up, because if the volume growth trajectory remains similar to what we have done in 1H, and if the cost structure would be similar or rather can just improve marginally, so don't you think the margins could sustain at these current levels, and any reason why it could actually come down from what we delivered in quarter 3, quarter 2, sorry.

No, definitely it is a sustainable, but because of some small increase in other costs, say, for example, the toll charge, some loading and loading cost, or any, you know, change in the rates of these things, definitely there is a small correction in the margin. But as of now, considering these volumes and the current cost structure, whatever it is there, the 23 plus margin is sustainable. But any increase in overhead cost or something, to that extent, actually, there will be some small correction.

Alok Deora Analyst — Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Got it. And this revenue growth of 20%, which we are seeing, which is combination of 9% odd realization and 10-11% volume. So this will continue through the fourth quarter. I mean, in terms of the realization improvement at least. And after that, we'll see mainly the volume growth driving the revenue growth. I mean, unless we take any further price change. The revenue growth will be more normalized at around 8% to 10% kind of a number. Is that understanding correct?

Yeah, in that sense, actually, we can expect at least around 10% to 12% growth in the revenue. Assume that there will not be no price relation change or something. Basically, one thing what will happen, we are expecting the teenage growth in the range of around 9% to 10%, that's one. And whatever correction in the realization from Q1 to Q2 now, again, that will also lead to some 1 or 2% increase in the revenue.

Alok Deora Analyst — Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Okay. Okay.

So overall, we assume that there is no change in the realization from now onward. For the next year, at least the guidance will be the revenue will increase at least around 10 to 12%.

Alok Deora Analyst — Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Got it. And with 10 to 12%, the margins will kind of be at around 21% or so. 21-22% different. Okay. Okay. Got it. Sir, just last question. So, you know, we have been delivering margins which are not seen anywhere in the industry, listed or even unlisted side. So, how are we sustaining that? I mean, it's since been many quarters, since we are doing almost 19-20% and now we have moved to a new trajectory of 23%. So, and now, you know, even for this year and even next year, we are maintaining a 21-22% kind of a range. So, how are we kind of doing this? And if you could just. Spend a minute on this, whether what is actually making and how much is, what is making this possible and how much of this is due to our internal, you know, cost-saving initiatives or strategies and how much of this would be more of market-driven where things can also change in future.

Yeah. See, one is, see, our service level is excellent as compared to other operators in India. Just I want to give one example. See, during the month of this October, it was a very peak season of festival, the most of the textile goods which are booking from Ahmedabad to Suraj, many of the competitors or many of the operators, they were unable to book the confinement because of non-availability of the vehicles. In our case, what happened, we have never stopped even single minute that the booking has been stopped in these locations. So, because of own infrastructure facility, because of the, you know, the network what we are having today, because of the customer base of 10 lakh plus customers, without depending on any industry specific, these are all, you know, key differentiations between other operators in India. And because of this, whatever demand actually we met, we are in a position to give the service. Our tunnel growth in the month of October is around 20% plus compared to year on year. It is a 20% growth in Tennessee in October. So, these are the key differentiations as compared to other operators versus where. And when it goes to the freight rate to the customers, we are not charging any premium or something much different from the other competitors. But at a service level, we are much efficient as compared to others. See, our claim ratio is hardly in decimal as compared to the other operator, if you compare it, is at least in the range of around 10 to 12 percent claim ratio. But in our case, it is hardly any decimals.

Alok Deora Analyst — Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Got it.

So that's the reason we are in a position to retain the customers, and moreover, who of our customers, because of a short period, because of some fray traditionalization, they left us. Again, they came back to us and started the business. And currently now our strategy, how we are changing is, see, for example, if any corporate customer, if we are providing, say, service in Karnataka or South States, then why can't in North, why can't in VVS? We are identifying such customers and we are approaching at a top level to get all India contracts as well.

Alok Deora Analyst — Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Got it. So, just last question. Also, if with this recent correction in global crude prices, suppose the diesel prices were to get reduced by, say, 5 rupees, and in that scenario, you also take a price cut of, say, approximately, where realization comes down by, say, 5 percent. Then how does the margin, how would the margin shape up? Because one of the key reasons for margin also has been the realization improvement which you, because of the price hike you took in 1Q. Now, if you, if it is reversed partially, then how the revenues and the margin shape up?

See, margin will be again at a optimum level. See, margin will be, it will support further, you know, little bit we can add to the margin, but always how the maths will work. For every two rupees change in the freight fuel rate, there is a 1% change in the freight rates. Okay. See, for example, tomorrow if there is a 5% reduction in the fuel rate, then there is a possibility that around 2.5% realization rate it is. Okay. Okay. Yeah. And moreover, during that time, again, we will have some time gap and all and selectively some routes wherever we do not have much of a competition. We can retain our existing price rather than passing that benefit to the customers. And wherever we are having a competition, actually, there actually we can pass on that benefit to the customer. Like that, you know, it is again some good exercise we have to do and we have to effectively pass it on to the customers. Got it. But effectively, if 5 rupees is reduced in the fuel rate, we can expect around 2-2.5% reduction in the relation. And in that scenario, the margins will be maintained. The margins will not change.

Alok Deora Analyst — Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Got it. Got it. That's all from my side. So, thank you.

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. That was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

Yeah, thank you all participants. Basically, we are very confident on the Tannage growth. Just as I mentioned in the last question, our Tannage growth in the month of October, we reached almost 20% because of some good festival demand. And we also acknowledge from the market that some of the operators are unable to provide service whenever there is a very high demand in specific markets because they are completely depending on the outside vehicle or higher vehicles. Since we are having our own infrastructure, the own vehicle facility, wherever there is a peak demand in some of the sectors, definitely we can take that advantage and that will further add to our volume growth. And considering the various cost structure, the change in fuel, or so many things, always we will monitor the expenditure very keenly on a monthly basis or regular basis, and we will try to maintain the EBITDA margins at least around 21% plus going forward. With this closing remark, I would like to conclude this call. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of Moti Lalo Sual Financial Services Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your line.

Analyst Q&A · 10 questions
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