Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Aye Finance Q2 FY27 Earnings Conference
Call hosted by IIFL Capital. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode,
and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should
you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then
zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Viral Shah from IIFL Capital. Thank you, and over to
you, Mr. Shah.
Viral Shah:
Yes, thanks Renju. Good morning, everyone. This is Viral Shah from IIFL Capital. Welcome to
the 2Q FY27 Earnings Conference Call of Aye Finance. On behalf of IIFL Capital, I would like
to thank the management of Aye Finance for giving us this opportunity to host the call.
From the management team today, we have Mr. Sanjay Sharma, Managing Director and CoFounder, and other senior members of the management team. We will have opening comments
from the management team, post which we will open the floor for Q&A.
With that, I would like to transfer the call to Sanjay-ji for his opening remarks. Over to you.
Sanjay Sharma:
Thanks Viral. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I am Sanjay Sharma.
On behalf of Aye Finance Limited, I extend a warm welcome to all participants on our quarter
2 FY27 Earnings Call.
Joining me today are Mr. Niraj Kaushik, Deputy CEO, Mr. Gaurav Seth, Chief Financial Officer,
and Mr. Sovan Satyaprakash, Chief Strategy and Investor Relations Officer. Also joining us is
our Investor Relations Advisors from Strategic Growth Advisors. Our financial results, investor
presentation, and press release are all available on the stock exchanges as well as on the website
for your guidance.
Aye Finance continues to make a solid headway towards our mission to provide inclusive formal
credit to micro-entrepreneurs across India, and with 6.9 lakh active borrowers, which span over
18 states and three union territories. Lending to Indian micro and MSME segment continues to
remain a significantly underpenetrated area, and this offers a substantial long-term structural
opportunity to us.
We occupy a dominant position in this market and have a deep understanding of this segment.
Our differentiated approach, which combines proprietary underwriting models, physical branch
origination, enhanced with AI and machine learning, uniquely position us to capture this market
responsibly.
To summarize Q2 FY27, this was a quarter of steady and encouraging progress. Year-on-year,
the AUM grew by 26%. The credit cost decreased to 3.82%, improving for the seventh
consecutive quarter, and it now lies within our guided range.
The operating expense ratio also declined to 8.6%, roughly a 32 basis points improvement over
last quarter, and all this resulted in profit after tax more than doubling. So, this solid first half
has significantly enhanced our conviction to deliver on our stated FY27 guidance.
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Now, let me briefly touch upon the operating environment before I get into the quarterly
performance in a little more detail. The grassroot micro-MSME segment in India is showing a
steady momentum supported by government initiatives for increasing formalization, and we
continue to see this constructive demand in our markets for working capital across our core
segments.
The year FY27 has started on a good note as reflected in the robust trends in our business metrics.
Our performance in Q1, which is typically a slower quarter, was rather robust, and the quarter 2
performance has continued to build the positive trajectory, and we are today trending happily
towards our guidance target for the year on all the salient metrics.
The possibility of inflation or El Niño effects or rainfall have not materially impacted our
customer segment and their trade demand. I had highlighted in my last quarter call the IMD
forecast of below normal rainfall in Central India and Southern peninsula. Droughts have finally
been declared in some parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh, so that's not a
surprise.
Together, these states account for about 18% of our AUM, and we have consciously slowed our
disbursements in some of these districts, as we believe that in lending discretion should be a
better part of valor.
Otherwise, the lending environment remains encouraging, with resilient asset quality through
the seasonally weaker July to September quarter. Our largest states, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and
Rajasthan, were largely unaffected by the monsoon, as can be seen in the Slide 26 in the investor
presentation. The credit demand held up well, and we are seeing early signs of festive pick-up
as we move into the second half of the year.
On growth, our assets under management stood at INR7,597 crores, which is up 26% year-onyear and 4% quarter-on-quarter, keeping us within our full-year guidance of 25% to 30% growth.
Against this backdrop, our disbursements for Q2 FY27 stood at INR1,403 crores, up 10% yearon-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, and we added 49,000 new borrowers added in this quarter.
While the fresh disbursements grew at a brisk pace, and fresh disbursements of 49,000 new
customers translates to about 23% growth in our disbursements year-on-year and 11% growth
quarter-on-quarter, it is our repeat loans where we saw some deferment of loans, and I think it's
primarily because the festive season has shifted into the third quarter.
In repeat loans, we saw, against the year-on-year, a 3% lesser disbursement, and against quarteron-quarter, we were plus 10% of disbursements. Repeat is an area where I think we will make
up because the customer ultimately needs money before the festive season, so we should see a
better quarter in quarter 3.
This took our first half FY27 disbursements to 2,622 crores, which is 15% up year-on-year.
Historically, the first half year typically accounts for around 40% of our annual disbursements.
The approaching festive season typically provides a lift in disbursements in the second half of
the year, so we are well-positioned to benefit from this seasonality.
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We ended quarter 2 without adding to our tally of 571 branches, which we started with the year,
but in quarter 3, 30-plus new branches will also become operational, and this will further add
fillip to our disbursements, and this is as per plan.
Looking at efficiency and portfolio quality, driving efficiency by reducing unit costs and
improving the asset quality remain the two key priorities for FY27. I had said that in my earlier
investor call, and I repeat that again.
And you can see demonstrated performance against these two parameters. First of all, our AUM
per employee increased to 0.67 crores in quarter 2 as compared to 0.57 crores in the
corresponding quarter of last year, which is an improvement of almost 18%. The AUM per
branch also improved to 13.3 crores in quarter 2 versus 12.8 crores in quarter 1.
The operating expense ratio, which fell down to 8.61% in quarter 2 versus 8.93% in quarter 1,
so in a single quarter, we have seen a 32 basis points reduction in operating expense ratio. This
is the reason our cost-to-income has reduced to 49%. All these summarize our efforts to make
better use of our existing operational infrastructure and drive greater efficiency as we scale the
business, and we see further rooms for improvement in the remaining year to come.
Turning to asset quality, portfolio performance continued to improve during the quarter. Our
GNPA has now declined for seven consecutive quarters and stood at 4.20% as of September
2026. This is 30 basis points lower than the last quarter and 70 basis points lower year-on-year.
PAR X stood at 6.94%, which is down 7 basis points sequentially and 109 points year-on-year
from the 8.03% in Q2 FY26. These trends reflect the progress we have made in strengthening
our portfolio quality. We target to get the PAR X to move gradually to a range below 6.5% by
the end of the year.
The vintage of our portfolio provides further comfort. As of September 2026, 95% of our current
book was originated after June 2024. So, this is a book that has been originated after the volatile
period of industry-wide overlending.
On the credit costs, our credit costs for the quarter came in at 3.82%, which is an 21 basis points
improvement from 4.03% in quarter 1, and 119 basis points year-on-year. We are now within
our FY27 guided range for credit costs where we had guided for 3.5% to 4%.
This reduction in credit costs was driven by 3 factors, tighter underwriting, stronger collections,
and better repayment behavior of our customers as their business cash flows improved. We
expect credit costs for the full year to remain within our guided range. Collections remained
healthy, with overall non-OD collection efficiency at 99.2% and Bucket 1 collection efficiency
at 52.8%.
As mentioned earlier, these are very good collection efficiencies, and the large states of Bihar,
Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan, which account for a significant share of our portfolio, continue to
deliver very good collection efficiencies, which is shown in our investor presentation.
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Looking at balance sheet and debt funding, our balance sheet is ready for growth. With a capital
adequacy of 41%, as we mentioned last quarter, our current capital is sufficient to support our
growth for around the next 2 years without needing fresh equity.
Funding cost also continued to ease, and our incremental cost of borrowing declined to 10.04%
in quarter 2 against the 10.20% in quarter 1. And this decline seems to be against the grain of
increasing interest rates, but this is driven by an improved funding mix and our recent rating
upgrade to IND A+.
The overall blended cost of borrowing also, not only the incremental cost, but blended cost
overall has declined 15 basis points to 10.63% in Q2 FY27 as compared to 10.78% in quarter 1.
As older, higher-cost borrowings are repaid, we expect this benefit to flow through progressively
over the coming quarters.
Our financial performance also strengthened during the quarter. And let's talk of profits and
margins. Gross total income for Q2 FY27 was INR527 crores compared to INR427 crores in Q2
FY26, an increase of 23% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter. Net interest margin was
15.6%, comfortably above our full-year guidance of 14.25% to 14.75%.
A lot of people might think that there's a gap between what we are actually seeing in net interest
margin and our guidance. The primary reason is that our guidance had factored in more
aggressive increase in repo rates. Also, we had not factored in the rating upgrade, which we were
expecting, but we thought it prudent not to factor it into our forecast.
Pre-provision operating profit grew to a 54% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter to
INR198 crores. This translated into stronger profitability, with profit after tax of INR87 crores,
which is up 151% year-on-year and up 16% quarter-on-quarter.
On costs, our operating expense ratio for Q2 was 8.6% compared to 8.9% in Q1, which I
mentioned before. These improvements have resulted in the ROA, and return on total assets,
improving to 4% in quarter 2 compared to 3.7% in quarter 1.
For the first half of FY27, gross total income was INR1,017 crores, up 23% year-on-year, with
net interest margin of 15.9%. Pre-provision operating profit also grew 47% year-on-year to
INR377 crores. And profit after tax rose to INR162 crores from INR65 crores compared to the
first half of FY26, which is an increase of 148%.
Return on asset and return on equity for first half FY27 stood at 3.89% and 12.32%, respectively.
At the half-way mark, we are on track to deliver on each of the salient metrics of our annual
guidance. At the start of the year, we guided for AUM growth of 25% to 30%, credit cost of
3.5% to 4%, net interest margin of 14.25% to 14.75%, and operating expenses of 8.25% to
8.75%, yielding a return on asset of 4% to 4.5%, and these are return on total assets.
AUM growth and credit costs are already within our guided range, and NIM continues to run
comfortably ahead of our guidance. As volumes build in the second half, we expect the operating
expenses and the return on asset to move into their guided ranges in line with the seasonal
patterns of our business.
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As we enter the seasonally stronger second half, our aim remains to build on this momentum
while remaining mindful of our operating environment. The rising interest rate environment is
already factored into our NIM guidance, as I mentioned. We are mindful of the prospective
insurance commission recommendations, and we shall work on levers to compensate for this
impact.
And the levers are going to be, reduction in operating expense ratio, which will continue, the
benefit that we are getting from reduction in the blended cost of borrowing, and the falling credit
costs. We will continue to pursue our growth plans, strengthen our collection, and improve
operational efficiency, and maintain discipline and underwriting standards.
What is the vision beyond? Beyond this year, our focus remains on building a stronger and more
sustainable lending franchise in line with the 3-year vision that we had shared in July, which
essentially targets 28% to 33% AUM growth CAGR, return on assets of 4% to 4.5%, and as part
of this, we are also evaluating gold loans and other secured products for our customers and will
update you on these plans as they take shape.
Our approach on these is to create a basket which addresses all the needs of our target segment,
which is micro-enterprise borrowers, and I think we hope to see this take shape later in the year.
With that, I would like to conclude my opening remarks and open the floor to questions.
Moderator:
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question comes from
the line of Akhilesh Bhatter with Ampersand Capital. Please go ahead.
Akhilesh Bhatter:
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. Sir, just wanted to understand one thing, that how confident,
given that second half is going to be very good for you. So how confident are you to deliver your
guidance in terms of the upper end of what you have already guided in terms of AUM growth
and credit cost, 30% AUM growth specifically?
Sanjay Sharma:
See, I think the second half, typically, as I said, that contributes 60% of the disbursement. And
therefore, we feel that we are definitely in that range. Can it be on the higher end? I wouldn't say
that that's not possible or not likely to happen. But I think it will all depend on how the second
half plays out and there are no other surprises.
As I told you that, we will probably push further on repeat, because repeat was one area where
if we wanted to push it, we would have seen much higher growth in the AUM. So, we have that
lever available to us. And repeat loans in generally perform very well on the credit cost. So, I
think that will be one of the areas that will pick up.
If we decide and launch our gold loan product, that will also add to that. And besides that, the
branches that are opening up will also contribute. So, all in all, my answer would be that, we
will be in the range. Whether we will be in the closer to 30%, I wouldn't like to commit now.
But is it possible? Yes, it is definitely on our hindsight.
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Akhilesh Bhatter:
Got it, sir. Sir, just wanted to understand one more question on the ROE. So, what is your
sustainable target for ROE in the next 3-4 years? And where do you see that number going up
to?
Sanjay Sharma:
Yes. I think we have given a guidance of ROA, which is roughly 4.5% median. ROE is more a
factor of how we leverage. And today, because we have just taken primary money through the
IPO, our leverage is low. Our expectation is that we should be looking at going into a leverage
of 4x to 4.5x.
So, if we can deliver a 4.5% ROTA and deliver 4.5 times leverage, we should be in the high
teens or lower 20s. That would be the range. But this will happen gradually as more and more
debt gets picked up.
Akhilesh Bhatter:
And sir, have you factored in the level of dilution that's going to happen in the next 2 years? And
are you confident that despite that, we will be able to reach that?
Sanjay Sharma:
Yes. So, given our net worth, which is about INR2,600-plus crores, if we leverage it about 4.5
times, we have enough trajectory to grow for the next 2 years. So, I don't see dilution happening
in the next 2 financial years.
Akhilesh Bhatter:
Got it, sir. Thank you.
Sanjay Sharma:
Thank you, Akhilesh.
Moderator:
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Renish with ICICI. Please go ahead.
Renish:
Yes. Hi, sir. Congrats on a good set of numbers. So, just two things. One, on the asset quality,
so we've been managed to navigate first half much better against all odds, but now, we are at
some troughs and also some threats around gold loan by a couple of large vendors. So, just
wanted to understand how are we placed in second half in terms of asset quality and credit cost
trends?
And also related to that, historically, how is your livestock portfolio behaved during an
inflationary environment, given we have almost 24-hour exposure in that particular industry?
Sanjay Sharma:
Yes. Thanks, Renish. These are excellent questions. See, first of all, we have seen our credit cost
decrease for seven consecutive quarters, so we have a fairly good way of estimating that which
direction we will see in the remaining half of the year.
Sanjay Sharma:
We believe that our credit cost will continue to drop. And we do believe that we will be in that
closer to 3.5%, which means that our exit from the year will be even lower than that. That is
something that we can see, because we are already at 3.82%, so getting to that sort of number
doesn't look unlikely.
Renish:
Got it.
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Sanjay Sharma:
Second is that you asked us about cattle portfolio. See, interestingly, we always had a very
different way of underwriting our cattle portfolio, because of which it has behaved very
differently from the rest of the market.
And some of the pieces in there, I would highlight are, that one is that we don't give it to marginal
dairy farmers. The dairy farmers have to have high-yielding cattle with minimum of four cattle,
and in some areas, we look for six cattle as a minimum. Second is there is a lot of focus on
ensuring that there's no operational misselling or possibility of someone showing us the incorrect
dairy count.
Renish:
Sanjay Sharma:
Okay.
Even today, when we look at our dairy portfolio, the cattle portfolio is actually in terms of static
pool data, is showing a better profile than the rest, I would say, marginally better, but is not any
worse.
Now, we still don't want to aggressively grow the cattle book, because cattle book is very easy
to grow, but we believe that we want to still maintain that diversification, which is diversified
into multiple states, and hold ourselves in the 25% to 27%, 28% range, although it's a very
attractive business, and it is doing very well. So, cattle is not a challenge for us. We are
specifically mindful of cattle-related lending in the drought states, and so far, we have not seen
any weakness in collection there.
Renish:
Got it. And so, basically, inflationary environment typically is beneficial to cattle growers,
because the milk prices tend to go up. Is that a fair understanding?
Sanjay Sharma:
See, I think we factor in the variation of milk prices. So, for example, I don't want to get into too
much detail, but essentially the milk price in Northern part of India is often higher than the milk
prices in South and West. And I think that is factored into our lending, and I think these are the
nuances that go into our underwriting which make our portfolio that much stable rather than a
broad-brush underwriting.
Renish:
Got it. This is very helpful, sir. My second question is around this employee addition. So, we
have not added significant headcount in past three quarters, but this quarter, we added almost 90
to 100 employees without any branch addition. So, just wanted to understand which roles this
branch hiring has happened?
And also, when I look at past four, five quarters' trend, it suggests that the number per employees
per month is static around two and a half to three, five. And hence, I'm wondering what is the
internal target we work with in terms of number of files per month per sales officer? And where
do we stand currently?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
Sure. I'll just pick up that question. So, with respect to employee count, for this financial year,
we had budgeted for an employee growth between 12% to 15%. Now, most of the employee
count goes into three verticals. One is on the distribution side, which is ideally addition of new
branches as well as splitting of new branches that will happen in the second part of the financial
year.
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Then the second part is a credit-related resource growth that is going to play out. But the biggest
part also goes to collection-related activities, purely basis the enlargement of the portfolio size.
Now, that would mean soft collectors as well as hard collectors, purely basis the load levels that
we want to maintain at various, branches.
Preparing for the second part of the financial year, where the portfolio significantly grows with
60% disbursements coming in the second part of the financial year, we start building up the
collection infrastructure in many parts of the country.
The new branch hiring has started kicking in. Obviously, the operationing of those new branches
will happen in quarter 3. So, that is the type of jump that we will see with respect to manpower
over the next two quarters also, a majority of that happening in quarter 3, but some spillover
happening in quarter 4.
With respect to productivity that we benchmark, this year, we had targeted a productivity per
loan officer for the hypothecation loan at about five loans per month, which was 4.2 files in the
previous financial year. Right now, for the last quarter, we had a productivity of 4.85 compared
to last financial year quarter 2, where the productivity was hovering at about four files also.
So, there is a significant improvement that has played out in the productivity as per the plans
that we had baked into our budget, which is also reflecting in the operational expenses dropping
significantly in the first two quarters. And as the AUM builds up in quarter 3 and significantly
in quarter 4, the new employee will also get productive, and that the trajectory of improvement
will continue during the course of the year.
Sanjay Sharma:
Renish, to summarize, what we will do is that our staffing, the reason it has not moved from last
year is because I had mentioned that last year we had taken on the extra people that we needed
for collection, for mortgage business, etcetera, which will not repeat in this year, and which is
what is getting demonstrated.
Second is, in the second half of the year, where we stand today, we will probably add 5% to 7%
more staff, so it's not a significant increase, whereas the AUM will grow substantially, which is
what Sovan was mentioning. So, I think that's why we believe that operating expense ratios will
continue to come down.
Moderator:
Thank you. Mr. Renish, please rejoin the queue for more questions. Next question comes from
the line of Pavan Kumar with Edelweiss Public Alternates. Please go ahead.
Pavan Kumar:
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Couple of questions. Number one, on the ECL provision
that you have made, I think in Q1 disclosures you have mentioned it is like INR39 crores for
Stage 2 and INR194 crores for Stage 3. But in the current disclosures, you have increased it to
INR48 crores and INR197 crores. Can you explain that, one reason?
Second reason, now that, you know, from the time that we have made the monthly disclosures,
it's been like 15 days, 20 days. So, how are you seeing the credit quality staying up or like, you
know, improvement in disbursements, because the festive season is almost here, and probably
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be seeing like all the merchants be, you know, putting taking on all the additional inventoryrelated loans? Yes, those two questions.
Gaurav Seth:
Yes. Hi. This is Gaurav. I'll take the first part, and then I'll pass it on. The last quarter, when we
disclosed the ECL provisions, we had not included the management overlays. Now, this quarter,
to make the numbers more transparent, we've included the management overlays, and we've put
them into the various stages. So, last quarter, we had a management overlay that was built into
Stage 2. That is why it has increased from Rs. 42 crore to Rs. 48 crore. And the Stage 3 has
increased as well. That is the reason for the movement of the numbers between last quarter and
this quarter.
Pavan Kumar:
Sir, can just a follow-up.
Gaurav Seth:
Yes.
Pavan Kumar:
Gaurav, just a follow-up. So, then what is the write-off this quarter? Is it like INR95 crores
approximately?
Gaurav Seth:
So, yes, that's a fair question. Yes, it is. Because what we did was we had nearly INR45 crores
of book, which was 100% provisioned.
Pavan Kumar:
Okay.
Gaurav Seth:
Now, we have actually written off that book. And therefore, while the write-off has increased a
tad bit, however, the credit cost is flat, because we had already created provisions at 100% in the
past, and now, we've just done the accounting entry of writing them off.
Pavan Kumar:
Got it. That makes sense, sir.
Gaurav Seth:
Now, for the next part, I'll pass it on to Niraj to share his inputs.
Niraj Kaushik:
Hi, Niraj Kaushik this side. And for the company, actually, for the past years, we have seen that
in first half, in general, we disbursed 40%, and second half around 60% of the total disbursement.
Yes, of course, now the festive season is started, and we are witnessing there is improvement in
the, you can say, disbursements.
So, going forward, we are very much confident in this quarter as well as in the next quarter, the
way we demonstrated in past years, this year also we will demonstrate. This year, in first half,
we are already like from 4 file per person productivity increased to 4.8 year-on-year. And
similarly, in this quarter also, we are expecting the similar trend increase in the productivity.
This will be due to two reasons: one is increase in the efficiency, and at the same time, the
festival impact, actually.
Pavan Kumar:
Sanjay Sharma:
Just a follow up.
Here, I'll just add that we're not using average ticket size to build up our book. Our average ticket
size remains the same, so we are using the better lever of productivity to build a book in the rest
of the year.
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Niraj Kaushik:
And I think you were referring some collection piece as well. So, in collection, second half
always relatively better than the first half in collection also. First half, we have seen improvement
vis-a-vis first 2 quarters. And this quarter, due to festive season, probably 1 month we may see
some dip, otherwise, in general, second quarter, third quarter and fourth quarter, our collection
efficiency remains robust.
So, we are very much optimistic, and the way Sovan already mentioned, we have, you can say,
added good number of collection resources in our overall, you can say, infrastructure to take
care of the, you can say, bouncing. So, we are very much confident in this quarter and going
forward, our collection will remain well within, you can say, guided lines.
Pavan Kumar:
Just a follow-up question, if I may.
Sanjay Sharma:
Yes. Sure.
Pavan Kumar:
So, like we would have done like INR500 crores of disbursements in September, right? Like
October would probably be looking at INR600 or like INR550 kind of number. In terms of the
fund raise, particularly with the interest rates going up, and then the RBI doing various measures
to remove the liquidity in the market, are you seeing any, you know, difficulty in fundraising in
any of your conversation with banks, you know, any tightening that you're seeing from banks or
like the institutions? Or everything is good?
Gaurav Seth:
So, Pavan, I'll say everything is good for two reasons. One is, if I look at the quarter one and
quarter two, our borrowings are actually going up. So, quarter one, we borrowed near to
INR1,100 crores; quarter two, we've borrowed closer to INR1,200 crores.
The second is, as all a lot of the borrowings, as you are also aware, come towards the later part
of the quarter, and therefore, while the rates had gone up, while the banks were sort of, as you
said, there was tightening, however, we've not seen any sort of downside there.
The third is, when I look at the bank's share, last quarter, our bank share was 32%. That, this
quarter, has gone up to 35%. And therefore, we -- to sort of cut it short for myself, I'll say, we've
been borrowing at lower rates, and we've been borrowing aggressively with the banks. We are
not seeing any challenges.
Pavan Kumar:
Perfect, sir. Thank you so much, and wish you all the best.
Moderator:
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Vinit Agarwal with Bajaj Alternates. Please
go ahead.
Vinit Agarwal:
Thank you for the opportunity. Couple of questions. Like, first, I want to understand what
percentage or share of your customers have MFI or other unsecured loans, and what is their
average number of lenders and total exposure?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
So, if you look at a individual primary borrower level, the MFI overlap would be about 8%- 9%.
But because in the loan structure, we do add co-applicants, would be female member of the
family, so when you look at a group level or at a family level, the MFI exposure or people who
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October 22, 2026
would have an MFI loan would be in the range of about 30-odd percentage to 32-odd percentage.
We account for the entire household liabilities into our FOIR computation, including the MFI
loans.
With respect to other unsecured facility, usually we have not seen a major personal loan lines on
the customers. Having said that, there are small ticket size loans that we had seen during the last
2 years when the over-lending scenario was playing out, typically in the ranges of about 25,000
to 30,000 kind of ticket size. But those would be even like I think about 50%, 60% of the
customers might have, but this would not be multiple lines of these loans.
Vinit Agarwal:
Okay. And secondly, since 32% of the loan are now underwritten with AI/ML scores, how do
delinquencies on these compared with loans under underwritten using the cluster methodology?
Sanjay Sharma:
Yes. I think on the AI and ML, we have been using these data science tools for the last 7 years,
at least. Some of them have been there for 7 years, some have been about 5 years. And before
implementing anything, we do a detailed parallel test of the model. So, first is that you train the
model and then you have a testing of the model in line.
And thanks to that, we have always found that the AI/ML models, whether it is underwriting
related, whether it's collection related, or it could even be customer calling and repeat loans
related, they have all behaved well. We review these every 6 months, and once in a year, we also
have an external review from the risk department for these models.
So far, these models have done very well, because we've not gone with a very aggressive
approach on saying that let's in 1 day suddenly change over to all the AI models. We've taken a
calibrated approach, and it's worked very well for us. This is one of the reasons we continue to
see improvement in our productivity, whether it is at the front end in the loan officers or the
collection officers, or in the back end where underwriting is done.
Vinit Agarwal:
Understood. Just lastly, like UP is your second largest state wherein, if I see, bucket 1collection
efficiency, that is continuously it's falling, while PAR X trend is also increasing. So, anything to
read on that? Like what is driving this, or any corrective actions have you taken?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
So, with respect to UP, in general, I think while the dip in the DPD bucket 1 has been about 5%
if you compare it to April, but in general, the bucket 1 collection has dipped over the last three,
four months. If you look at the past trends, the way Niraj was putting it, in the first half before
the festive season kicking in, we see fluctuation in the bucket 1 or the DPD bucket collection
efficiency, which then steadily improve post the festive season as the cash flows improve.
At this point of time, we have not identified any particular reason for the dip in UP or other
states. So, I believe, as the festive season passes by and the cash flows improve, I think postNovember, I think there should be a steady improvement in bucket collection efficiencies, as
well as the 99.2% also would inch up over the last four months of the financial year.
Sanjay Sharma:
See, I think I would add that that I think the trends are in the range that is comfortable for us.
And compared to the rest of the country, they are still performing better. One thing you will also
notice from these graphs that while August, in every place, has shown a slight aberration, the
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reason August collections were slightly weaker is primarily because of the way that month was
placed.
We had Raksha Bandhan at the end of the month, and then it was followed by Saturday and
Sunday. So, when this happens and we lose three days all together, you'll find that specifically
in the Northern regions, we saw a slightly lower collection efficiency, which we have picked up
back in September, so that was just a one-off that happened in August.
Niraj Kaushik:
I will just add what just Sanjay mentioned. In the month of August, actually, this Rakhi, end of
the month, besides in Northern part of the UP, there is a Kanwar Yatra also take place, and
because of that, there is some impact in the collection efficiency, because majority of that region,
Moradabad and that piece, Meerut, there a lot of activity happens due to Kanwar. So, this is a
yearly phenomenon. This is nothing new for us, and we are very much, you can say, equipped
to take care for the rest of the months or quarters, actually.
Vinit Agarwal:
Great, great. Thank you for answering my questions, and all the best for future quarters. Thank
you.
Moderator:
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Viral Shah with IIFL Capital. Please go ahead.
Viral Shah:
Yes, thanks, Renju. Thanks, Sanjayji. I have a couple of questions. One is, you touched upon
the insurance piece, and you also mentioned that you have mitigants. I understand, of course,
this is draft, but could you quantify, say, what is the kind of mitigation in terms of, say, a
percentage terms that you can do through various measures, be it say an ROI or the opex or any
other means that you would have? That's my first question.
Sanjay Sharma:
Sure. Viral, roughly, I expect that while in this year, we will see our operating expense come
down to roughly 8.5%, we believe that in the year to follow, which is where the impact of the
insurance will be felt, assuming it is implemented, the operating expense ratio itself will have
an upside of 50 basis points for us.
So, what I'm saying is from 8.5%, we will hopefully look at 8% as an average for the year, or
better. Second is, I believe that our credit costs also will continue to drop. We intend to average
around 3.5% plus/minus a few basis points for this year, and I think next year, we should see a
10 basis points to 25 basis points improvement further.
Third is the interest rate itself. In our case, the interesting thing is that while for the rest of the
markets, interest rate costs are likely to increase, in our case, because our blended rate is already
at 10.63% and we are borrowing at 10.04%, even a 25 basis points increase in that borrowing
still makes our interest rate drop.
And therefore, the interest rate will also give us a 25 basis point upside, and this is without
factoring any sort of a rating change. So, roughly 50 basis points in OER, 25 basis points in
interest rate, and another 10 basis points to 25 basis points in credit costs. This is much more
than the impact of the interest rate on our books.
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So, these will compensate, and essentially, without repricing the product for our customers, we
can absorb this. Besides that, we look at other ways of cross-selling and improve our top-line,
so that is in addition. So, I think we have the ability to absorb this change if it happens.
Viral Shah:
Got it. So, basically, there should be no material impact on a net basis, is what you are referring
to, right?
Viral Shah:
Even in the worst-case scenario.
Sanjay Sharma:
I think our guidance for ROA should stay untouched.
Viral Shah:
Got it, Sanjayji. My second question was, Sovan, you were mentioning about the collection
efficiency and the PAR numbers in UP, I understand. But when you refer to the overall numbers
also, the bucket 1 collection efficiency, on a sequential basis, that is showing some dip, is that
basically more, I would say, stickiness of the delinquent accounts, or is there anything to read
over there?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
Not really. So, typically, what we have observed in the past also is, just before the festive season,
there's some cash flow tightening at a business micro-enterprise level. Primarily, people build
up their inventory and everything. So, there is always some fluctuation in the collection
efficiencies. The good part that we have observed for this financial year is that the non-OD
collection efficiency has stayed stable even during this period, which is just prior to the festive
season.
The bucket 1 collection efficiency has dipped for us over the last three months or so. We would
say it's more attributable to the tightening of cash flows before just before the festive season,
and which gets improved post the festive season. Even in the last financial year, during the
difficult times, we had seen post the October festive season, November onwards, the collection
efficiency steadily improving.
I think that would play out even for this financial year. The only shift would be this November
could become a December, but I think from thereon, it keeps on building on the collection
efficiency strength.
Sanjay Sharma:
Viral, I would also mention that while it's natural for us to look at timeline trends, and everyone
says that if it was better the month before, why has it worsened, and we ask the same question
to our teams, but the absolute level of PAR X, which for us is below 7%, is truly has to be seen
against the market. So, we are far more capable of keeping our PAR X or OD buckets down.
Even our stage two bucket is only 1.2% or there 1.24, I think. So, these buckets are very tightly
managed. A 10 basis point movement here or there, we do notice it, but it's not that it changes
materially how we perceive the business or we need to tighten the business or suddenly take
knee-jerk reaction. So, I think that's where I would say that look at our PAR X versus also the
industry.
Viral Shah:
Got it. No, that's fair. And my last question, Sanjay-ji, is on the gold loans, you touched on it.
Of course, currently, it's pilot phase, but what is the business model that you are thinking about?
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Will it be the same branches? And any initial sense on how are you thinking about building this
out?
Sanjay Sharma:
See, on gold loans, we realize that our existing micro-enterprise customer, almost 20% of them
have some gold loan either before we lent to them or even after we lent to them. So, that's a
market that we want to retain and increase our share of wallet with the customer, so that is the
primary approach that we're taking.
And here, we are going to set up new branch setups, but in the same cities where the existing
branches are. So, infrastructure will be new. We're not going to do a very aggressive push into
all the branches, but we'll selectively look at some branches to progress this. Our strengths in
distribution are, to large extent, in the North where the penetration of gold loans is lower.
Even the leveraging of gold loans is a lot lower. So, I think that will be our natural ground to
start, although right now, when we start looking at branches, we'll also look at other regions like
the West, the East, and South to do the gold business.
Viral Shah:
Sovan Satyaprakash:
Got it. And that doesn't basically impact our opex guidances, right?
No, Viral. I think there's enough of buffer on our opex plans to absorb a couple of pilot branches
for this financial year. And as Sanjay was mentioning, I think we will diversify the sourcing
depending on the new acquisition that we are generating, the rejection pool that we do as part of
the hypothecation loan, as well as new sourcing for gold loans.
Viral Shah:
Got it. Thank you, and all the very best.
Sovan Satyaprakash:
Thank you.
Moderator:
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Rudraksh Raheja with Ithought Financial
Consulting. Please go ahead.
Rudraksh Raheja:
Yes, thank you for the opportunity, sir. Sir, any specific states or regions that we may be more
cautious about disbursements going forward, anything that you are seeing on ground?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
So, I think we had highlighted that earlier also, one, couple of districts where there's a droughtrelated announcements of Maharashtra, MP, and Karnataka. We will be tracking the non-OD
collection efficiencies, as well as the bounce rate, which are very early indicators of how the
portfolio would behave.
At least at this point of time, there's no deterioration that we observe in the non-OD collection
efficiencies in these states, so that is one area that we will be focusing on. We have done a certain
tightening with respect to the micro-LAP disbursement, that is also observed in the deck that we
have provided.
Again, certain branches in MP and Gujarat, so we have taken a branch-based approach to identify
where exactly there are slippages that are happening, and we have taken a call with respect to
those specific branches rather than taking a broad view with respect to a particular state or
industry.
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Sanjay Sharma:
Rudraksh, here, the fact that we are highly diversified is exactly for these sort of challenges
where if there's a drought in some part of the country, and being in 18 states actually enables us
to respond to these challenges without too much stress on our portfolio. So, I think this is one
area where we are well positioned to tackle this challenge.
Rudraksh Raheja:
Understood, sir. And sir, compared to what we already were aware of that this would be an El
Niño year, where you must have prepared for what could happen on the ground, and what actual
situation is, do you find any variance in what is actually happening and what we planned for?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
At an optical number level, I think we are tracking to our plan. With respect to PAR X, we did
believe that we'll be able to bring it down below 7% by the half-yearly, which should gradually
come down below 6.5% by the end of the financial year. Non-OD collection efficiency should
be tracking the 99.2% 99.3% kind of a bracket.
So, I think many of those indicators are fairly stable for us that we had planned during the course
of the beginning of the financial year. So, we have not seen any major divergence from those
plans that we had put. Obviously, at a branch level, as I highlighted, we keep on tracking at a
branch level, and we take credit calls at a branch level wherever there are any slippages or
identified movement in the collection efficiencies.
Rudraksh Raheja:
Got it, sir. And sir, how is collection efficiency and asset quality on the mortgage loans,
specifically that book?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
So, on the mortgage front, we have seen that PAR X has jumped by about 1% in the last one
quarter, but still the PAR X levels of mortgage today are trending at about 6%, lower than the
hypothecation loan, which should be the case, and significantly better than the overall industry
averages that we are tracking.
Again, just the way I highlighted, the 1% movement that we have seen, we have identified which
specific branches are contributing to that. We have identified some part of MP, some part of
Gujarat are contributing to that. So, one, we have taken a credit view with respect to tightening
of the policies, which is reflected on the overall disbursement for mortgage.
And as we believe that once the collection stabilizes in these pocket of branches, as well as the
collection infrastructure builds, maybe in quarter 4 or quarter 1, again the disbursements of
micro-LAP also should scale up gradually.
Rudraksh Raheja:
Got it, sir. Got it. Thank you so much.
Moderator:
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Rahul Kumar with Vaikarya Fund. Please go
ahead.
Rahul Kumar:
Yes, hi. Just one question. So, what is the linkage of our portfolio to the rural, you know, sector?
And basis our previous experience in a weak sort of a macro for rural, how does our portfolio
behave?
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Sovan Satyaprakash:
Rahul, we had tracked the data, analyzed the data of past drought-like scenarios in specific
pockets of the country and overall credit cost trends. What we have observed is that at a overall
level, we have not seen any deterioration with respect to credit cost when a specific pockets
undergo a drought-like scenario over the last five years or so.
So, one, while there could be state-level changes or variations that start playing out at a branch
level or at a state level, we don't believe that the credit cost at a Pan-India level will see a major
change, and primarily because of the diversification that Sanjay was highlighting earlier.
Sanjay Sharma:
Also, Rahul, we have 571 branches. None of the branch is in a rural area. They're all in Tier 2
and Tier 3 towns. So, there is very little overlap with agri business. We don't do agri lending,
and nor do we do rural-based lending, so that impact does not come on to our book.
Rahul Kumar:
Moderator:
Okay. Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Sameer Bhise with Dymon Asia. Please go
ahead.
Sameer Bhise:
Yes, hi. Thanks for the opportunity and congrats on strong numbers. You explained well on how
you are placed on liabilities with respect to, say, the rising interest rate scenario. On asset side,
have you taken any action in terms of fresh disbursement? Or you think there is still some time
or threshold to achieve before you start hiking lending rates on asset side?
Sanjay Sharma:
Okay. Thanks, Sameer. I think our thought was that if the interest rates had remained where they
were, and the insurance commission, etcetera, would not have happened, we would have been
in a position to not only increase our ROAs to over 4.5%, but also probably pass something back
to the customer. So, in our case, while we have the pricing power to increase rates, we don't
believe that we'll have to do that.
Yes, the benefit that we might have passed on to the customer will not happen that early. And
as I mentioned, that we clearly see a 50 basis points operating expense ratio addition accretion
in the next year, 10 to 25 basis points credit costs, and 25 basis interest cost benefit, so these
will, in a way, work for us without having to reprice our loans. Although, as I mentioned, that
we have that ability to reprice, because we are a dominant player, and we don't have a
competition in the hypothecation loan segment.
Sameer Bhise:
Sure, this is useful. And secondly, on the margin guidance, like we have done pretty well in first
half, maybe you didn't raise some liabilities in 4Q end and then maybe partly even in 1Q, which
helped, but how does one think on say, this cost as we go ahead? while there is a gap on book
versus the incremental cost, your absolute leverage also is going up. So, is that why the guidance
is kind of maintained around 14.25% to 14.75%?
Gaurav Seth:
So, Sameer, the borrowing, as you rightly mentioned, it will continue to be in the range of so,
I'll put it differently. See, I today borrow at 10.02%. Now, even if I was to add in the 25 bps
increase, I'll still continue to borrow at far lower rates than my existing blended cost.
Sameer Bhise:
Yes. yes.
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Gaurav Seth:
Now, now the reason why we've maintained the 14.25% - 14.75% are two. One is, as we go
ahead, the ML book will start accumulating, and therefore, there will that will create some
pressure on the yield.
The second is the repeat business has been slow currently, that will also start accumulating and
that will also create some additional pressure on the on the yield. While and the third is the
interest rates. Given that there is an interest rate hike, we might not have a significant increase,
but there will be some increase because of the additional costs.
So, all of it taken together, we've maintained we wanted to maintain for this quarter a 14.25% to
14.75%. However, at the beginning, we are seeing an upside, and if we continue to see this
upside, probably in Q3, we will relook, and we'll come back and share a revised number then.
Sanjay Sharma:
Sameer, on that, we have simulated our forward numbers, and we believe that if the interest rates
go up by 25 basis points, it'll have a 3 basis point impact on our ROA in FY27 and 6 basis points
in '28. And if it goes up by 50 basis point, then that impact in FY27 is going to be only 7 basis
points, and in '28, it will be 15basis points. So, it's not a very large change in the impact that we
will see.
Sameer Bhise:
This 50 bps from here or including the one which happened in October earlier?
Gaurav Seth:
This includes the 25 that happened already. So, we've factored another 25 bps happening again.
Sameer Bhise:
Sure. Okay. Yes. This is helpful. Thank you, and all the best.
Gaurav Seth:
Thank you.
Moderator:
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Aditya Miglani with Burman Capital. Please
go ahead.
Aditya Miglani:
Hi, sir. Congratulations on a good set of results. One or two things I just wanted to check. One,
could you just clarify what is our mix between fixed versus floating both on the advances and
borrowing side?
Gaurav Seth:
So, on the advances side, we only do fixed. We don't do floating. On the borrowing side, 60%
is fixed, 40% is floating.
Aditya Miglani:
Got it. And secondly, sir, I saw that foreclosure rates, if we compare probably FY26 versus 1H
FY27, not materially higher, but they are inching higher. Is there anything to read through in
that specific path?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
On the hypothecation loan, we don't see that foreclosure rate increasing that has played out over
the last couple of quarters. What we have seen, the foreclosure rates on the mortgage piece
inching up, and today it's almost 22%, 23% of the portfolio. That's inching the blended
foreclosure rates.
Also, to keep in mind, the mortgage foreclosure rates over the last one year, obviously, would
be lower because of the lower vintage of the portfolio on the mortgage that we generated last
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three years. So, I think this inch-up is primarily because of the mortgage part of the portfolio.
On the hypothecation loan, we still do believe that we are the dominant player, we don't see that
level of competition on the hypothecation loan, so those foreclosure rates there are fairly stable.
Aditya Miglani:
Sure. So, basically, the read-through would be that the foreclosure rates are higher because of
the vintage increasing on the mortgage side, right?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
Aditya Miglani:
Yes.
All right. And lastly, sir, quickly, we have seen that the branch count throughout FY26 and now
1H FY27 has largely been flat. So, just going forward, till what is the timeline, if any, which you
see eventually we will need to do some branch expansion? And what will be the translation into
opex at that point of time?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
Okay. So, I think last year we had split 45-odd branches, which were typically in the bracket of
about INR20 crores or so even. And that was the increase that we saw in the last financial year.
For the first half of this financial year, one, we have not split anything, or we have not opened
any new branches.
During the course of the year, 35-odd branches will be opened, which are new branches, as well
as certain branches would also be split. Or in the split branches, we don't see major change in
the opex increase, it's just infrastructure increase that plays out. The manpower gets split, and
we tap into the newer geography or the peripheral geography. So, I think this would be the trend.
So, while we'll open somewhere around 35 to 40-odd branches year-on-year, and these are new
branches where new manpower will be deployed, another 30 branches, 40 branches can also be
split every year. So, that is how the optical count will increase somewhere between 80 to 90.
However, new infrastructure is only would be in the range of about 40 branches.
We have also shared a slide with respect to the potential capacity of the existing branch
infrastructure that we are already having. If you look at it by vintage, the oldest set of branches
have touched about INR21 crores or so again. Anything post-6 years kind of vintage is ideally
the set of branches which were impacted during COVID.
But for the existing infrastructure that we already have, I think somewhere around Rs. 4,000
crore to Rs. 4,500-plus crore kind of capacity is available that can be built over the next near
term on the existing infrastructure. So, from a growth perspective, we don't heavily rely on the
new branches, while they will fasten the process of growth. But I think existing infrastructure
carries still carry a lot of value with respect to growth in the next three years or so.
Aditya Miglani:
Sure. And incrementally, if the branches roughly 35 that you did say would possibly come up,
which geographies are you planning, which geographies are you targeting mostly?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
So, across all the zones, North will see some increase in the branches in Punjab, as well as UP.
In East, we are looking at some branches in Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, as well as West Bengal.
And in South, we are looking at Tamil Nadu…
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Niraj Kaushik:
Rajasthan.
Sovan Satyaprakash:
Rajasthan also, we are adding. So, across states, we are adding.
Niraj Kaushik:
So, branches is splitted across various states wherever we are getting, like Rajasthan, we are
getting good performance, we have given good branches to Rajasthan. Some in Northern part of
the country, UP, we have given some branches. Some in Bihar, Orissa. So, it is across the
country. It is not and beside these branches, we have close to 40 branches. We have to split it up
even.
So, these plus put together these, we have close to 80 branches which we will add in this financial
year. However, the major volume from these branches is coming going forward. So, this year,
we will not see much impact in the volume. From a split branch, definitely we will see. However,
from new branch, the full impact will come from the next financial year.
Moderator:
Thank you. Mr. Miglani, please rejoin the queue for more questions. Next question comes from
the line of Varun Dubey with Share India Securities. Please go ahead.
Varun Dubey:
Good morning, sir, and thank you for giving me time to ask a question. Just have one question,
sir. Because you have highlighted that you have slowed disbursement in some of the areas where
drought have been declared. So, if this condition intensifies and impacts your collection and
asset quality, how covered or how insured are we to tackle this situation?
Because there are several microfinance companies who actually have Nat Cat insurance for the
products, which actually protect them from, 3 or 4 months in conditions of drought. So, how
does your company, protect your overall asset quality in such situation? I know you have…
Sovan Satyaprakash:
Varun, your line isn't clear. Can you come again with that question?
Varun Dubey:
One second, sir.
Moderator:
Mr. Dubey, please go ahead.
Varun Dubey:
Okay. I meant, I just wanted to understand, if there is a drought-like situation, and if this
intensifies, and it impacts your overall collections and asset quality going ahead, how covered
are, or insured are we to tackle this situation? Because there are several microfinance companies
who actually take Nat Cat insurance for their products.
And that covers them for 3 months or 4 months in conditions of drought. So, do we also bundle
such type of products, or do we insure our products with Nat Cat insurance or something like
that? I know we take credit life, but does that protect us in such type of situation like drought or
any natural calamity?
Sanjay Sharma:
Varun, on insurance, I think mostly the Nat Cat sort of insurance applies where agri-based
lending is done. We have, in any case, looked at various ways of insuring our book, including
the available CGFMU schemes, etcetera. And since our loss rate is not very high and it's not
very volatile, we find that insuring the entire book is not a preferred option, because that will
end up not being accretive to our ROA. So, even CGFMU we use selectively. There are bonds
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October 22, 2026
available which can give you some payouts based on the drought-like conditions in a particular
state. We have evaluated it, and we have not favored them.
Varun Dubey:
Okay. So, in that case, how much portion of a book is covered under CGFMU?
Sovan Satyaprakash:
Today, would be about INR200 to INR300-odd crores that is covered under CGFMU.
Sanjay Sharma:
You see, even that is very small, INR300 crores out of INR7,500.
Varun Dubey:
Okay. So, I mean, I just wanted to understand, because if there is a drought-like condition and
there are repayment issues, so the credit life insurance that we actually bundle the product…
Moderator:
Varun Dubey:
Mr. Dubey, sorry for interrupting. Your voice is breaking. Can you come in the range and talk?
One second. I just wanted to understand that, if there is a drought-like condition, and your asset
quality gets impacted, then the credit life insurance that, I think so, you give with your product
is not going to help you that much, right?
Sanjay Sharma:
Yes, credit like. Because credit life is a life insurance product, so it will not help.
Management:
It will not help, yes.
Varun Dubey:
Okay. That's it. Thank you, sir. Thanks for taking my question, and thank you for giving me this
chance. Thank you, sir.
Moderator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. We have reached at the
end of question and answer session. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Viral Shah for closing
comments.
Viral Shah:
Yes, hi. Thank you. Thank you, Sanjay ji, and the Aye Finance team. Sanjay, do you want to
make any closing comments?
Sanjay Sharma:
Yes, thanks, Viral. I would also like to thank everyone who joined us today for the continued
interest in Aye Finance. And we do appreciate your time and participation. Any other questions
you have, please feel free to get in touch with any of the team here or directly you can also speak
to Strategic Growth Advisors, which is our investor relations advisor. And we look forward to
updating you on the progress next quarter. I hope you have a wonderful – you've had a wonderful
Dusshera and wish you a very happy Diwali.
Moderator:
On behalf of IIFL Capital, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you
may now disconnect your lines.
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