Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the earnings conference call of Hindalco Industries 4th Quarter Results for FY26. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference call over to Mr. Subir Sain, Head of Investor Relations at Hindalco. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, and a very good morning and evening, everyone. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, I welcome you all to the earnings call for the fourth quarter of financial year 2026. In this call, we will refer to the fourth quarter of financial year 2026 investor presentation posted on company's website. Some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature, and is covered by the Safe Harbor language on slide 2 of the said presentation. In this presentation, we have covered the key highlights of our consolidated performance for the fourth quarter, financial year 26, versus the corresponding period of the prior year. A segment-wise comparative financial analysis of Novelis and Indian Aluminium and Copper business is also provided. The corresponding segment information of prior periods have also been restated accordingly for a comparative analysis. Today, we have with us on this call from Hindalco's Management, Mr. Satish Bhai, Managing Director, and Mr. Bharat Goenka, Chief Financial Officer. From Nobilis's Management, we have Mr. Steve Fisher, President and CEO, and Mr. Dev Ahuja, Chief Financial Officer. Following this presentation, the forum will be open for questions and answers. Post this call, and audio replay will also be available on company's website. Now let me turn this call to Mr. Pai to take you through company's performance and key highlights in the fourth quarter of financial year 2026.

Thank you, Subir, and good morning and evening, everyone. On slides 5 to 10 of this presentation, you can see our achievements and progress across quarterly metrics of safety and sustainability for this quarter versus prior periods. I will now take you through the key highlights of these initiatives. Let me begin with a positive highlight. Hindalco has once again been featured in the S&P Global Yearbook 2026, ranking among the top 1% in S&P Global ESG scores within the aluminum industry. Notably, only 11 Indian companies have achieved this distinction. This recognition reinforces Hindalco's leadership in the aluminum sector and underscores our strong commitment and strategic focus on delivering long-term ESG excellence. At Hindalco, safety is always our highest priority. Our LTIFR for this year stood at 0.23, showing significant improvement over the prior period. During the year, we sadly reported three fatalities at our Indian operations. Thank you. We deeply regret this loss and remain firmly committed to implementing all necessary corrective actions to prevent such incidents in the future. We have significantly strengthened our safety capabilities by developing 295 safety SMEs, enhancing the effectiveness of risk controls across operations. This has been complemented by over 0.6 million line management-led safety interventions, which have helped sustain an ALRP risk environment while reinforcing overall operational safety resilience. In parallel, we are driving real-time experiential learning through the development of safety-themed paths across multiple units, embedding a culture of proactive and hands-on safety awareness across the organization. We are also implementing measures to prevent man-machine interface risk across all our manufacturing units. At Hindalco, we continue to make strong progress on circularity and responsible waste management. This year, 88% of the total waste generated was recycled or reused, indicating stronger waste management performance. We achieved 131% recycling of bauxite residue, excluding utkal, 106% recycling of ash, and 126% recycling of copper slag in fiscal 2026. Ash utilization has increased at Aditya, Rinusagar, and Utkal, driven by strong demand from the cement industry, as well as off-site low-lying area filling. At the same time, bauxite residue recycling has scaled up, supported by growing demand from cement manufacturing, road construction, and quarry backfilling applications. In addition, recycling of copper slag has also improved, led by higher off-take from abrasives and ready-mix concrete industries, further strengthening our overall base-to-value initiatives. We have made consistent progress in improving water efficiency across our operations. In the aluminum business, specific water consumption has steadily declined over the years, driven by a series of focused interventions such as adoption of zero-liquid discharge systems, optimization of cooling tower operations, and reuse practices. These initiatives have helped us significantly reduce dependence on freshwater sources while improving overall process efficiency. A similar trend is visible in the copper business as well, where fresh water consumption has also reduced over time, supported by better water management practices, recycling measures, and operational efficiencies. Together, these efforts underscore our strong commitment to sustainable water stewardship and resource conservation across the value chain. We remain deeply committed to preserving and enhancing our biodiversity in and around our areas of operation. Under our no net loss approach, we planted 1.3 lakh mangrove saplings near the edge, along with 0.2 lakh saplings at Aditya Aluminium, while total plantations increased to 8.7 lakhs across sites versus 5.3 lakhs in FY25. Through our biodiversity management plan, we have transplanted over 1,600 trees, developed 1.6 hectares of butterfly gardens, and removed invasive species across 7 hectares to restore ecological balance. Additionally, under our Red to Green initiatives, we are converting legacy sites into green ecosystems. Including transforming Moody's tailings dam pond into a 17.4-hectare biopark and undertaking the country's first quarry restoration using over 1 lakh tons of bauxite residue. At the end of this year, our renewable energy capacity stands at 470 megawatts powered by solar, wind, and hydel sources. We remain on track to add another 53 megawatts in the coming quarter. At the same time, we are making strong progress in our round-the-clock renewable energy initiatives with 30 megawatts of storage-based power scheduled for deployment this quarter, taking our total renewable capacity to 523 megawatts by the end of Q1 FY27. These achievements reflect our unwavering commitment to clean energy and reducing carbon intensity as we move towards greener, more sustainable future. Our aluminum-specific GHG footprint for fiscal 2026 stood at 19.2 tons of CO2 per ton of aluminum produced, marking the lowest level of heat. Importantly, this reduction is not a one-off outcome but a part of a structural and consistent downward trajectory in emissions intensity, underscoring the effectiveness of our decarbonization road mass. It reimposes our commitment to building a globally competitive low-carbon aluminum business, aligned with evolving customer expectations and long-term sustainability goals. Now, let me give you a glimpse of the current broader economic environment on slide 12. The current economic scenario is shrouded in geopolitical conflict and uncertainty. The IMF's reference forecast for 2026 pegs the global growth at 3.1%, lower than earlier expectation. This slowdown reflects the impact of the conflict in West Asia, in the absence of which the outlook would have been stronger. Advanced economies are expected to see a relatively modest impact from the conflict, with growth easing slightly from 1.9% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026. In contrast, growth in developing economies is projected to slow down from 4.4% to 3.9% in 2026, largely driven by the Middle East region, where growth is expected to moderate significantly from 3.6% to 1.9% due to the more direct impact of the conflict. The U.S. is projected to grow at 2.3% in 2026 versus 2.1% a year ago, supported by energy exports, fiscal policy and tax initiatives, and technology-related investment. China is projected to slow to 4.4% from 5.5%, while policy stimulus and lower U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are expected to cushion some of the negative impacts of the Middle East conflict. Global growth remains vulnerable to a combination of geopolitical escalation, energy shocks, inflation persistence, and financial tightening, with risk reinforcing each other. Global inflation is expected to rise in 2026 to 4.4 percent from 4.1 in 2025 due to higher energy and food prices, with strong upside risk if geopolitical disruptions persist. India has entered this crisis with a relatively stable macro performance. The National Statistical Office estimates the FY26 growth at 7.6, implying the Q4 FY26 at 7.3%. The economic momentum from the first half of FY26 continued into the second half, with fiscal measures like GST rationalization and monetary policy easing supporting the economy. Manufacturing activity remains steady, and business expectations and leading indicators point towards stability. On the demand side, the urban consumption is steadily improving while rural demand continues to hold. Sustained performance in the services and agricultural sectors continue to support economic activity. Against this backdrop, the RBI expects a GDP growth of 6.9% in FY27. However, the risks are tilted to the downside, with the growth conditional on further escalation and widespread of conflict, heightened volatility in the global financial markets, and weather-related events. Inflation is projected to more than double to 4.6% in FY27 versus 2.1% in FY26, with heightened upside risk. Moving to the industry outlook on slides 13 to 50, on slide 13, you can see that the aluminum prices have continued to strengthen during the quarter, supported by steady demand across key end-use segments such as packaging, electrical, machinery, and transportation. On the supply side, the conflict in West Asia, which has led to one of the most significant supply disruptions in the aluminum market. This is expected to tighten availability, particularly through Q2 and Q3 of calendar year 26. As a result, the market has moved from an earlier expectation of 0.3 million tons deficit to 1.5 million tons deficit for calendar year 26, which should support prices and drive visible inventory drawdowns. At the same time, we do expect a supply response to higher prices, including restarts in Europe and West Asia, along with faster ramp-ups in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, which should help rebalance the market over the medium term. Looking at the global aluminum market in Q1 calendar year 26, Chinese production stood at 11 million tons, with increases in Yunnan largely offset by closures in Shandong. Consumption also moderated to similar levels, impacted by softness in building and construction, solar, and new energy vehicles, resulting in a broadly balanced market in China. In the rest of the world, production increased marginally to about 7.5 million tons, led by capacity additions in Indonesia and Spain, partially offset by lower output from West Asia. However, consumption softened to around 7 million tons, primarily due to continued weakness in transport, although packaging and electrical demand remained resilient, leading to a surplus of 0.5 million tons. Overall, this resulted in the global market also being in a surplus of 0.5 million tons during this quarter. Turning to India as shown in slide 14, in Q4 FY26, aluminum demand is estimated around 1.6 million tons, reflecting an approximately 9% year-on-year growth. This growth remains broad-based, supported by structural drivers in automotive, continued strength in electrical demand, and stable packaging demand. Overall, the Indian market continues to outperform global markets, backed by stronger underlying demand fundamentals. Turning to the Indian copper industry on slide 15, in the domestic copper market demand this quarter, including domestic supply, scrap, and imports, And imports, excluding, rose by 10% year-on-year, reaching 402 KT compared to 364 KT in the same period last year. This strong growth was driven by infrastructure investment, increased electrical applications, and strong sectoral demand, particularly from white goods and winding wires. The global concentrate market remains in an unprecedented tight phase in 2026. Driven by a structural mismatch between smelting capacity and mine supply. Spot TCRCs are crunched to record lows in the range of minus 21 to 25 cents per pound, as stronger sulfuric acid realizations have partially offset weaker treatment terms, thus sustaining smelter buying interest. This tight market environment is expected to persist through the year. However, any restart or ramp-up of key mining operations in Africa or Central America could provide some relief and lead to some recovery in TCRC levels. Let me now give you a glimpse of our quarterly consolidated and business segment-wide performance versus the same quarter last year on slides 17 and 18. A consolidated business segment EBITDA was up 11% year-on-year at 10,812 crores this quarter. The consolidated profit after tax was down 51% on a year-on basis at 2,597 crores this quarter due to the impact of exceptional items, including the impact of the Novelis Oswego plant fire. If we adjust the impact of this exceptional item, our consolidated plan stands at 5,796 crores this quarter, up 10% year-on-year versus the prior period. At Hindalco India Business, our business segment EBITDA was up 17% year-on-year at 6,610 crores this quarter, whereas our quarterly profit after tax was at 3,549 crores, up 11% on a year-on-year basis. Coming to our business performance this quarter on slide 18, India upstream aluminum shipments were up 2% year-on-year, and revenues were up 11%. Our quarterly EBITDA was up 13% year-on-year at 5,448 crores, backed by our resilient performance across the value chain, fully aligned with our philosophy of operational excellence by design. This helped us deliver an EBITDA of $1,756 per ton this quarter. EBITDA margins were at 48% and continue to be among the best in the global industry. Our hedging position for aluminum in FY27. It stands at around 29% of the commodity at $3,013 per ton and 14% in currency at 90.13 rupees per dollar. Our Indian downstream aluminum business continues to deliver a strong performance where quarterly shipments were up 18% year-on-year at 124 KT. Aluminum downstream delivered a quarterly EBITDA of 255 crores, up 16% year-on-year versus 219 crores in the prior period. This was driven by higher-per-volumes product mix and premiumization. The resultant EBITDA per ton stood at $226 a ton this quarter. On Hindalco's copper business performance, our overall metal shipments were at 128 kT, down 5%.

Sorry to interrupt, ladies and gentlemen, we have lost the line for the management.

Please stay connected while we reconnect the line for the management.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for patiently holding. We have the line for the management reconnected. Yes, sir, please go ahead.

Okay, so I'm not sure where I got disconnected, but maybe I'll just start with the copper business performance this quarter. Our overall metal shipments were at 128 KT, down 5% year-on-year, of which CCR volumes were at 91 KT, up 11% year-on-year, with market recovery this quarter. Our quarterly copper EBITDA stood at a record 907 crores, up 48% year-on-year, on account of better realization in byproducts and operational efficiencies. Novelis recorded a shipment of 917 KT after adjusting for 73 KT lower shipments due to Oswego fire, reflecting a decline of 4% year-on-year over 957 KT shipments in the same period last year. Adjusting EBITDA for the quarter stood at $498 million or $543 per ton, reflecting a 5% year-on-year. This excludes the impact. Back in April 2025, we set an FY26 exit savings run rate target of $75 million, which we raised last quarter to $125 million. With another quarter of solid execution behind us, that run rate is now $200 million. Looking ahead, we remain committed to our three-year goal of permanently reducing our cost structure by $350 million to $400 million by FY28 exit. Additionally, scrap prices continue to move in a positive direction, supporting margin improvement. Coming to slide 22 in FY26, our businesses continue to generate healthy cash flows amounting to 21,858 crore. This represents a strong 11% year-on-year growth. This performance underscores the strength of our operating model and disciplined execution. At the same time, we continue to invest aggressively in future growth with capital expenditures of 31,619 crore, up 47% year-on-year. These investments are focused on capacity expansions that will drive long-term growth. The resulting increase in net debt is in line with our long-term value creation strategy, ensuring that we maintain a strong balance between growth investments and shareholder returns. At the consolidated level, we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with net debt to EBITDA below two times at 1.83 at the end of March 2026. Despite the temporary impact of Oswego fires, we remain committed to maintain our net leverage around two times at the console level. Details of the operational and financial performance in each of our business segments this quarter, compared to the corresponding period of last year, as well as previous quarters, are covered in further slides and annexures to this presentation. Let me now conclude today's presentation with some key takeaways in slide 29 and 30. At Novelis, our fourth quarter performance continued to highlight the strength of the underlying business. Even as we navigate near-term headwinds from Terrace and the temporary outage at the Oswego facility following the fire. In Q4F526, adjusting for these impacts, our underlying adjusted EBITDA per ton remains close to the $500 mark demonstrating the resilience of our operating model. The Oswego hotmail is on track to restart in the next few weeks, and we view the outage largely as a timing-related impact with the current year headwinds expected to substantially recover in the next fiscal year. Importantly, our long-term guidance of $600 per tonne remains intact. Supported by accelerated execution of our $350 million to $400 million structural cost reduction program, which is driving sustained improvements in efficiency and margins. In parallel, we continue to invest for growth with our 600 KT. Greenfield Rolling and Recycling Facility at Bay Minet scheduled for completion this year. This will position us well to meet growing demand across automotive, beverage packaging, and specialty aluminum segments, further strengthening our long-term growth outlook. Coming to our India business, in this quarter, in fiscal 2026, we once again delivered global industry-leading aluminum upstream EBITDA Pattan, re-informing our position firmly within the first decile of the global cost curve. This performance is a reflection of our strong operational efficiency, disciplined cost management, and consistent execution across cycles. All our key upstream expansion projects, including Aditya alumina refinery and aluminum smelters, are progressing well and remain on track as we advance with our strategy of doubling our upstream capacities. In addition, our captive coal mines are progressing well across stages where Chakla received stage 1 forest clearance, Minakshi is currently under stage 1 approval, and Banda has completed its box cut this quarter. Once operational, these mines will help reduce our upstream costs and support margin expansion and strengthen EBITDA. On the downstream side, we see strong momentum in scaling up operations. The Aditya FRP plant is ramping up well and contributing meaningfully to overall production. Our battery enclosure facility has reached full ramp up and is operating at optimal levels. The Aditya battery foil unit has been commissioned this quarter, while the Taloja AC pin facility has begun commissioning, with customer qualifications underway. In our specialty alumina business, the precipitate hydrate facility has also been commissioned this quarter and is currently undergoing customer approvals. Our copper business continues to remain resilient with copper smelter expansion, e-waste recycling, and other sustainability-led initiatives progressing as planned. The Inner Group Tube project is also in trial runs, further strengthening our downstream portfolio and value-added capabilities. Overall, Hindalco is well-positioned for the future, driven by our core philosophy of engineering better futures. Our strategic priorities are clearly defined in our accelerating upstream expansion in aluminum and copper, while driving a four-fold increase in downstream EBITDA in India by FY30. In parallel, Novelis continues to execute its mid-to-long-term 3x330 strategy, focusing on delivering sustainable growth and enhanced profitability by 2030. Together, these initiatives position us strongly to capture emerging opportunities and create long-term sustainable value for all stakeholders. Thank you for your attention, and we'll now open up the forum for any questions.

Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and then 1 on their touchstone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, You may press star and then 2. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Again, to register, please press star and 1. Your first question comes from the line of Sumangal Nivatya with Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good evening, and congratulations on a very strong set of numbers. A couple of questions. First one, I just want to understand the hedges better. We understand the aluminum part. So the currency part, when you're saying 14% of the currency is hedged at 90, is this broadly the right understanding when we say that, say, half of the aluminum hedges, the dollar is also fixed, currency is fixed, and half will be at the spot currency rate? For the 30%.

Sorry, Sumangal, so in FY27, I'm just going to repeat, we have 29% hedged at $3,013, and the currency, we have 14% hedged at $90.13.

Okay, okay.

So the hedges are done for the commodity and the currency separately.

And the currency is full India level or only aluminium?

No, it's at the India level, because it's a rupee. But with the hedge accounting, it will be towards the aluminium sales. It won't be applied towards copper.

Okay, okay. All right. Okay, that's clear. Overall, on the cost, can we share what is our outlook on the aluminum cost of production going up or down in the coming quarters? And with respect to the coal mines, given now we are very close to commissioning, is it possible to share what sort of volume we are expecting in FI 2728 from captive coal?

So, on the cost first, in Q4, the costs were up 2.4% versus Q3. And in Q4, we were just starting to see the impact of the war. So, I think in Q1, we are anticipating a 5% increase over Q4, and the majority is driven by furnace oil. Furnace oil prices have really gone up high, followed by CP, Coke, and Pitch, but furnace oil being the biggest one. The coal prices are more or less still under control. So we think that Q1, we are going to see about a 5% inflation in costs versus Q4. On the coal mines, we did the box cut of Banda, but it's a very high strip ratio. So you're going to see first coal only in FY28. Chakla, we are expecting to box cut in the next two months, and the first call may start to come from Q4 itself. So, that's the plan on the mines.

Okay, so 27 also, given it is back-ended, very minimal incremental volumes from captive coal, right?

That's correct. You are going to see meaningful coal starting to come in only in FY28, and that too, Chakla will be the main one, because Banda is a high strip ratio. It will take us a while to ramp up the production then.

Okay, and just one last question. For the Aditya refinery which is coming up, is the margins completely linked to the index alumina prices? And at the current spot level is around $300. What sort of margins do we expect from a thumb rule perspective from specialty alumina?

No, it's nothing to do with the specialty alumina business. There are two bits of it. Some part of it is linked to the index. Some part, which is especially the very high value added VAPs, are not linked to it at all. So, in our specialty business, probably roughly 50% is index linked and 50% is value added, which is not linked to the index. So as the precipitated hydrate project comes in and other, slowly our plan is to move the specialty business completely away from the index-linked business.

Got it. Understood. All right. Thanks, and all the best, sir.

Yeah, thanks, Amangus.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Pinakhin with HSBC. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thank you very much, sir. So my first question is the copper EBITDA rose sharply Q1Q, and you highlighted higher sulfuric acid prices. So I just wanted to understand that sulfuric acid prices are not parabolic. So does Q4 reflect the entire surge in sulfuric acid realizations, or should more of it come through over the next two quarters?

So, Pinnakim, the sulfur prices are up largely because of the conflict in the Middle East. So, Q1 prices are looking slightly higher than Q4 as well. But I wanted to caution that the moment any Strait of Hormuz opening or thing comes, then you will have to see there will be a correction in the sulfur prices because they're really high right now. Got it.

My second question is, FY26 CapEx was 31,619 crores, primarily given the surge in CapEx and Novelis. Now, can you give us a sense of the console CapEx across India and Novelis over the next three years, how it will play out between the two businesses?

Next three years, maybe not. Let me give you next year's, I mean, FY27, the India CapEx will be about 12,000 crores. And the Novelis CapEx will be between, I think, Dave has already announced on the call about 2.3 billion to 2.4, largely bay minute. I think it would be fair to say that when you go into FI28, the Venice CapEx will sharply drop once Baymanet is commissioned and they go into more of a maintenance CapEx frame. The India CapEx will go much higher than 12,000 crores because we'll be then getting into the full copper smelter, the Aditya phase 2 ramp ups. But I think FI28 numbers, I'll give you more closer to Q3 or Q4.

Sure. So is it fair to say that the console capex should broadly remain in the 30,000 crore range for the next few years? Or will the pickup in India capex will still be lower than where novelist capex is today?

I think the India CapEx, Kinakhin, 12,000 crores this year. Next year will be, I don't know, 15,000 to 17,000 crores. But it's not going to be at the same level as Baymanet was. So I do think the Consol CapEx of the two will be lower. Got it.

So that is very helpful. Thank you very much.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Rashi Chopra with Siti. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Could you just tell us a little bit about the TCRCs?

So, TCRCs are, yeah, the spot TCRCs are running at negative 21 cents, like negative $100 right now. And that's largely because the supply and demand is completely out of skew. There's a shutdown or problems in Grasberg. The Cobra mine in Panama is down. So, TCRCs are right now at a negative, and probably this year will continue to be negative.

So, for this year, you haven't contrasted yet?

No, we are contracted. More than 85% is contracted at the benchmark. So, we are going to frankly get TCRCs at close to zero or slightly negative.

And what were the fourth quarter hedges in Aluminium?

Fourth quarter, we were hedged about, where is it, yeah, 64% at 2807, and currency was 26% at 88 rupees.

Good. Fourth quarter, Aluminium failed, how much? And what do you expect?

Yeah, the fourth quarter Illumina sales was 211 KT, and in Q1, we expect to sell about 170.

170, is that? Okay, and this last question from me, how do you break up the net debt for the company on a consolidated level? As in, what was the India cash and the Nubalist net that we have? What was the India cash?

Yeah, so India's gross debt is 12,200 crores, cash is 18,000 crores, so net debt is minus 6,000 crores. Novella's gross debt is 75,000 crores, cash is 11,000, gives you a net debt of 63,000 crores. Got it.

Okay, thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Indrajit Agrawal with CLFA. Please go ahead.

Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity and congratulations on a good set of numbers. A couple of questions. Can you throw some light on the mid-Japanic sport premium that we are seeing? It has rocketed up, and how do you see that panning out, and are we better off more in the export market than domestic business today?

It's a good question. I think, you know, Midwest are now at $380. So the delta between domestic realization and exports has narrowed down. So, um, uh, it's, uh, I mean, I guess in Q1 probably our exports may be slightly higher. The Midwest, the MGT has jumped up because of the supply tightness as well as the freight prices going up, which is what the premiums reflect.

And secondly, do you have a peak net debt number in mind? I understand you have a net debt to EBITDA number in mind, but absolute net debt number, do you have something in mind?

Absolute gross debt or net debt? Net debt. So consolidated net debt peak should be between 80,000 and 90,000 crores over the next two years. This is helpful.

Thank you very much. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Vikas Singh with ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Great.

Good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity, and congratulations on a very good startup number. Sir, my first question pertains to Novalis. This pay-minute corn mill which we are going to operationalize, just wanted to understand how would be the spreads on the cold rolling only until your hot mill comes into play, and given that the overall commissioning would take a year's time, how should we look at the fixed costs associated with the startup?

Steve, you want to take this?

Sure. So when we talk about commissioning, we're just commissioning each asset as it comes up. So we started commissioning the cold mill. The commissioning process is typically in the four- to five-month time frame from cold conditioning to and through hot conditioning. So, we will begin commissioning of the hotmail next month, and so as that finishes commissioning, we will then also complete the commission of the remainder of the equipment. So by the back half of this year, the full calendar year, we will have all the equipment needed and commissioned so that we can begin qualifying coils or product with our customers and believe that we will enter fiscal 28. Uh, with, uh, commercial coils being sold at that point in time. Obviously, we've also talked about 18 to 24, uh, months to fully ramp up and get to the capacities that we've talked about of 600 KT. Uh, so, uh, as we continue to, uh, ramp up, uh, the facility will size our labor force as much as possible towards, uh, what we need at that point in time. So, there will be some startup costs that get excluded from EBITDA as we fully commission the plant. I don't know, Dev, if you want to add anything more on the fixed cost outlook.

Yeah. So, when it comes to startup costs during the ramp-up phase, principally, the fixed costs that are not getting absorbed from the point of view of, you know, the low-capacity utilization are typically, in principle, classified as startup costs, and they would basically go below the line. That is the way we would do it. And as Steve mentioned, our ramp-up period is 18 to 24 months. So by implication, we will reach the full potential of day-minute on a run rate basis, somewhere in that timeframe, you know, as we ramp up. That's really how it is.

So, just to follow up, when we talked about the $600 per ton long-term plans on a blended basis, do we factor in the start-up cost below the item as well as the current scrap spreads or the scrap plot is lagging behind a couple of quarters in our assumptions?

Yes, absolutely. We factor in the fact that during the ramp-up phase, The fixed costs that are not getting absorbed are below the line in net income. We have not factored in current scrap spreads. I mean, these current scrap spreads and the current scrap market conditions, we take it as... Not sustainable. Things will come back to normal, and there will be some tightness, which we are aware about. We have factored that in all our plans, including when we talk about $600 per ton, to your specific question. No, we are not assuming such optimistic metal prices, nor are we assuming spread staying at current levels. We are assuming that there will be tightening both on pricing as well as on spreads. So $600 per ton is more like we will achieve it on a sustainable level, not with special tailwinds that we are enjoying now.

No, sir. My second question pertains to our coal. Once we get our own coal, given the current, you know, prices between the FSAs and eOption versus our old coal extraction, on a landed coal basis, any idea what kind of savings we could still make? Because coal prices, when we bought the coal mines versus right now spot prices, there's a huge difference.

Well, you know, the whole point about having your own mines is that the coal prices go up and down in the market. So, you're absolutely right, Q4, the coal prices were low. But we are heading into a monsoon quarter. All we need is one good hard rain in some NCL mine and suddenly the spot premiums will jump up. So I think the way we should look at our captive mines is that our cost curve gets completely standardized and flat because we control the coal and the pricing for the next 15-20 years with these mines. So, to your point, if we take today's price of coal on the sort of auction price, yes, it is low. So, Chakla and Banda will probably be at the same level. Meenakshi will still be substantially lower than today's prices. But I again urge you to look at what it's doing to our cost curve on a sustainable basis.

No question. Thank you for the elaborator's answer and all the best for this.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Parthiv Jhonsa with Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you, sir, for the opportunity. So my first question pertains to the corporate business. Now, considering, you know, Grassberg is not ramping up as expected, number one. Number two, you know, your asset prices are up and your TCRCs are, because as you mentioned, you're 85% already contracted. So do you expect that this 900 crores of EBITDA on a quarterly basis is a new normal till the time, you know, global headwinds are not clear?

Our guidance has been 600 is what we look at.

Absolutely. That is the reason. 600 and 900, there's a substantial gap between the two. And considering the global macros where copper is already sustaining over 13,300-400 level, and also the crunch is expected to continue for some time now, do we expect this to remain around 900-2000-odd crores on a quarterly basis?

No. I think that, you know, Q1, to be fair, will also be in the same range because sulfuric prices are high. But I'm not going to stick my neck out to Q2 and Q3. I would still go back to the $600, $700 per quarter then.

Okay, okay. That's actually helpful, sir. And just continuing on the question around Nobilis, you know, considering 18 to 24 months of a timeframe for, you know, completely ramping up the facility, and, you know, would it mean that you would have a certain, you know, the timeframe to actually ramp it up beyond a certain level would take at least two to three years? So, will the volume expansion remain within a certain band for next two to three years?

I actually, Steve, if you got the question, you can answer it, but.

Yeah, so the ramp up from once we get to. Fully qualified coils, we will, it'll ramp fairly evenly over that 18 to 24 months at times. We'll have to add a shift here or there as we go up, but the guidance that Dev said that as we complete the full commission or the full ramp up after 24 months. We would be at the run rate of 600 KT, and the overall EBITDA per ton that we've been talking about off that facility would be north of $1,000 per ton.

And is it possible to quantify the startup cost? Just wanted to check on it.

We will do that closer to time, but it's not going to be... A humongous number. I mean, you know, it will be, if you ask me to say it now, it will be more like in a 100 to 150 million range annually. But let's just pass that for closer to time as we commission Bainanet.

Sure, sure. That's helpful.

Thank you so much. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Satyadeep Jain with Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you. Amitabh, just another question on sulfuric acid, the most optical thing. So, you talked about the West Asia crisis leading to this crisis. I also want to understand the news flow around China restricting export of sulfuric acid. Have you started seeing that? In the market, is that impacting supplies? And I believe most of sulfuric acid that you said, is it to Indian fertilizer and chemical industries?

And if that is the case in government, current cost prices are looking at controlling prices in any way.

Just trying to understand what's happening on sulfuric acid.

Is the sulfuric prices actually set by a global index on a dollar term just like LME is? And China restricting exports means that in the current April month and all the sulfuric prices have actually gone up further. And no, we don't only sell domestically, we also export sulfuric acids abroad as well.

So, let's say you mentioned this West Asia crisis, if state of hormones opens, then sulfuric prices will come down. But this China is taking export of sulfuric acid. Is there a possibility that these prices stay elevated?

So, Satchit, I have no problem if they stay elevated because it helps us because PCRCs are negative. That I understood.

I was just asking for your opinion.

No, I can't.

Yeah, sorry, go ahead. Secondly, on the Meenakshi mine, I know you mentioned Banda has highest tip ratios. It's going to take a long time, slightly longer ramp up for some box cut. Meenakshi has a very low tip ratio, so should we assume... I know it's still early for clearance, but should we assume some volume in FY29, and the ramp up from there would be similar to Chakla?

It would be even faster than Chakla, because, you know, it's got less than one strip ratio, so you should see reasonably substantial volumes coming in in FY29 from Meenakshi.

The aluminum smelter that you're expecting in 28 and the other one in 29, can you maybe talk about, you've placed some purchase orders, but what is the visibility in terms of civil construction and all for this smelter to get commissioned in F-28?

So calendar year, December 27, the first 180 pots of Aditya will get commissioned. And calendar year December 28th, the next 180 parts of Aditya will get commissioned. The timelines look fairly firm to us. The first 180 for sure by next year, December.

Thank you so much. Yeah, thanks. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Ritesh Shah with Investec. Please go ahead. Yeah, hi, sir.

Thanks for the opportunity. A couple of questions. We have operations in Ontario. Trump tariffs are still there. There are shipments which move from U.S. to Canada and back. Is there any de-risking mitigation moves at your plant, specifically with this particular aspect?

Steve, you want to take that?

Sure. Yes, we do have a rolling facility in Ontario, Canada, Kingston. It's fed from our Oswego, New York facility, and then that product is then dispersed primarily into the auto industry and specialty products as well. So, as we've been talking about on the last several calls, we have an overall mitigation strategy as it relates to tariff impacts by sourcing more domestic. We're able to utilize coal milk capacity inside of the U.S. so that now we can, as Oswego comes back from the fires in the next few weeks, we're able to utilize some of the coal milk capacity in the U.S. to mitigate the full impact associated with the tariffs, and we continue to work with both governments for further potential scenarios of relief associated with that.

So, just to take this further, with the new cold well expected to six months out, is it fair to assume that we won't ship cargo to Canada and there could be incremental savings given we will say something on the terrace?

So, the cold mill capacity that I'm referring to is not the Baymanet cold mill capacity. So, that is even additional. We've secured additional cold mill capacity with our partnership at Logan. So, that's the cold mill I'm referring to, and it's more key to getting that sweet little hot mill back up and running so that it can be supplied. And then we just need to work through the longer-term planning associated with the Kingston Mill that also does serve auto with some finishing equipment.

Perfect. Mr. Pai, a few questions for you, sir. Current cold mix, if you could please highlight, I think that's the first question. Second, if you could give some sense on basically where does the 90% of the cost curve currently stand? And the third question is, power has been chased by several other industries, primarily data centers globally. Given we have the advantage of procuring local coal, how do you see the cost of differential for Hidalco and the rest of the world? How structural do you see and some outlook over that?

So the coal mix for quarter four was 61% linkage, 37% team auction, and the last few were sort of own mines. Your second question was, where is the larger cost curve of the aluminum? So I think it would be fair to say that the majority of the Western smelters, etc., they are at least $300, $400 higher than what we have in India. So that cost curve is, I think, more about $2,000 to $2,200 per ton. Your third question, I think, was on power costs. So you're right. If you are drawing power from the grid, then you are competing with hyperscalers of data centers. But generally, aluminum smelters, whether it's Middle East, us, Norway, Canada, have long-term PPAs with the government and hence are not really buying power from the grid. Where they have a problem like Mozaal, they have already shut down, or where, you know, you have a grid-based power, there the prices of power are going way higher than what a smelter can sustain.

So, any sense on what percentage of global production or percentage of misdemeanor capacity which would be on grid-based power, wherein do you see this cost of finishing?

Sorry, it's based on green power, did you say? Grid, grid, grid, grid-based power. So, grid-based, grid-based. Even if it's grid, let's take Dunkirk, it is based on the grid, but it has a long-term PPA with the energy provider. So, even if it's on the grid, a smelter will not be running on spot power, let me tell you that. So, they'll have a long-term, whether it's two years, three years, they will have a long-term contract with the provider. So, I think that, you know, the hyperscaler demand is largely a U.S. phenomena right now, and there are very few smelters in the U.S., as you know. There's only Century, and probably Alcoa is a small one. So, that hyperscaler power thing is largely a European thing, where there's very little smelting today.

Perfect. Sir, just last question. Would it be possible to provide some cutter on special inventories? And secondly, you did touch upon Midwest. If you could provide some color, especially on Europe and NJP premiums as well. The reason to ask us is hypothetically, if Fed increases rates, where do you see the larger impact? Will it be on premiums or do you see it on LME?

So, look, let's keep talking about Midwest, but generally, aluminum inventory worldwide is around 8 million tons, which is 40 days. So, it has dramatically come down, especially with the West Asia conflict. The second thing is the premiums generally reflect... So, the LME tends to work on the supply-demand, whereas the premiums reflect local availability and the cost of transportation. Steve, you want to add anything more on the Midwest?

No, no, I think you've highlighted tariffs because the majority of the primary aluminum coming from Canada into the U.S., the 50 percent tariffs is what's driving the higher Midwest premium.

Great. Thank you so much for the answers. I wish you all the very best. Thank you.

Yeah, thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Dushar Chaudhary with Prabhu Das Gliathir Private Limited. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks a lot for the opportunity. Congratulations on a good set of numbers, sir. Sir, can you give us some detailed update on our mitigation efforts for scrap sourcing, which we discussed last year, for example, diversion of landfilling scrap. Do we got any approvals on it as it started? Some details will be helpful.

Dave? I'll take that. Oh, Dave, okay. Oh, sorry, Steve. Okay, so we are working on a number of runs, as we have been saying. to diversify scrap sources. So to some of the things about, you know, landfill, no, we don't need any approvals. Here it is more about working with municipal recycling facilities, putting in technology, and extracting UBCs or scrap that would otherwise go into landfill. So this is not like a few-month initiative. This is an initiative that we have started to pilot, and then over time, we will expand it to... to a larger number of these facilities. But the main thing, which is actually very exciting, and that is what we should be really Feeling very good and positive about is that we will have a lot more scrap input coming from end-of-life automotive, where we already have a partner who has brought in the technology for scrap sortation as we speak. The aluminum-intensive vehicles, which have been produced over the last about 15 years, will start more and more to reach scrapyards, and that is where we are creating a supply chain to be able to get very valuable end-of-life scrap for automotive, and that will have a very positive impact on the margin. It is part of the strategy that will give us access to over $600 per ton of EBITDA. On the other side, you know, our initiatives are focused on more diversified scrap versus over-dependence on UBCs. So, basically, we want to really, you know, get into more scrap types. So, there is a pretty comprehensive slew of initiatives on all the matters that I just mentioned, and we are expecting to get positive results from that over time, in short.

That's true. Understood. And, sir, on domestic, can you give some more details on the smaller projects which we are doing on copper side? So, we are around spending around 5,000 crores in, like, battery-grade copper foil, e-waste, ICT. So, any EBITDA potential at full ramp-up will be helpful.

So the... One by one. Copper inner group tube project is undergoing qualification with customers today. So, that's 35 kt of copper tube that will go for air conditioning manufacturing. The 50 kt recycling package and plant will commission in August. So, once that is commissioned, we are going to process copper and debris scrap to get 50 kt of copper. So, these are the two projects that are in the immediate horizon that are going to immediately impact the copper performance over the next year. The copper smelter will be a few years out. We are just starting that in three years.

And the battery-grade copper foil is FY28, which we had given earlier.

Yes, and we are going to commission a much smaller one because, honestly, we are seeing that the battery manufacturing in India has not really taken off as fast as we expected. So, that's why we are going to time it a little bit, but a smaller capacity based on even exports we will be coming up with in the next two years.

Okay, thanks a lot, sir. Best of luck.

Yeah, thank you. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, this was the last question.

You can connect with the Investor Relations team for your further questions.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Pai for closing remarks.

Thank you, everyone. So, as you can see, I think the India business is on a solid footing, but I think more important is that Novelis is now coming back. Q4 was a good quarter, and then if Oswego starts in Q1 of this quarter, and Baymanet gets commissioned, so I think that Novelis is heading to a recovery year in FY27. So I think overall, that's an important point for us. So thank you very much for your attention.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Indalko Industries, that concludes this conference. Thank you, everyone, for joining us and Human Outers Connect Your Lines.