Planet Labs (PL) Q3 FY27 Earnings Preview and Forecast

Planet Labs (PL $12.55 +10.38%) reports results for its fiscal third quarter, the three months ended October 31, 2026, in early to mid December. The date is not announced yet; last year Planet reported its Q3 on December 10.

Planet guided Q3 revenue to $101 million to $105 million, below the $116.1 million it reported for Q2. That looks like a slowdown, but it is mostly an accounting step. Q2 included $14.1 million of point-in-time revenue, most of it from handing over the first Pelican satellite built for the Swedish Armed Forces, which management had expected in Q3. Take that out and Q2 revenue recognized over time, the data subscriptions and services delivered through the quarter, was $102.0 million. The Q3 guide midpoint sits only $1.0 million above it.

We think that is too low. Over-time revenue grew $9.7 million from Q1 to Q2 and about 40% from a year earlier, and backlog due in the next twelve months rose to about $407 million. We forecast Q3 revenue of $108.5 million, 3.9% above the $104.4 million consensus. The caveat is real, though: last quarter's beat came from the satellite handover, and the over-time revenue alone landed at the bottom of the Q2 guide. The stock closed at $12.55 on November 6, 75% below its $51.14 close of May 29.

How we built the forecast

We built the model from Planet's own filings: the Q2 FY27 10-Q and earnings release, the two most recent earnings call transcripts, and the FY26 10-K for the full-year split by customer. The quarterly figures are on Planet's financials page, the consensus on its analyst estimates page, and the positioning data on the short interest, options chain and insider trading pages. Planet's fiscal year ends on January 31, so Q3 FY27 is August to October 2026.

Why Q3 will beat

Management's guide treats Q3 as Q2 without the satellite handover. The CFO said so directly on the September call: the Q2 outperformance came "in part" from handing over the commissioned satellite in Q2 rather than Q3. Planet's 10-Q now splits revenue by recognition model, and the split shows how lumpy that piece is. Point-in-time revenue was $1.4 million in Q1 FY26, $0.8 million in Q2 FY26, $1.8 million in Q1 FY27 and then $14.1 million in Q2 FY27.

Over-time revenue is the steady part, and it has not stalled. It was $64.8 million in Q1 FY26 and $72.6 million in Q2 FY26, then $92.3 million in Q1 FY27 and $102.0 million in Q2 FY27, growth of 42.4% and 40.5% from a year earlier. The guide midpoint of $103 million is 26.8% above last year's Q3 revenue of $81.3 million. Point-in-time revenue was under 2% of revenue in the first half of last year, so the guide implies over-time growth falling from about 40% to under 30% in one quarter.

The backlog points the other way. At the end of Q2, Planet had about $814.9 million of backlog, with about 50% due in the next twelve months, up from 37% at the end of January. That is about $407 million from contracts already signed, or roughly $102 million a quarter on average, and it excludes the usage, renewals and new wins that land within a quarter. In Q1, the CFO credited the beat "primarily" to new wins.

Planet's record with its own guidance is strong. It met or beat the guide in each of the last eight settled comparisons, and in the last four quarters it beat the guide midpoint by 5.8% to 12.1%. We do not lean on that record alone, because Q2's beat came from the handover. Our forecast adds $5.0 million of over-time growth, about half of last quarter's gain, plus $1.5 million of point-in-time revenue, close to Q1's level.

Our forecast for Q3 and Q4

The Q4 range is what the full-year guide leaves after the first half's $210.2 million and a Q3 at the guide midpoint. Consensus figures are from the snapshot captured on November 3, 2026.

The EPS consensus carries no basis label, but it matches the company's non-GAAP measure. Run the guide midpoint through Q2's bridge from adjusted EBITDA (depreciation, interest and tax) and non-GAAP EPS comes to about -$0.027, almost exactly the -$0.025 consensus. Our -$0.02 is in line with it.

The bridge from Q2 to Q3

Q3 starts from Q2's $116.1 million, loses the $14.1 million of point-in-time revenue, adds our $5.0 million of over-time growth and $1.5 million of new point-in-time revenue.

Satellite services are the lumpy part

Planet sells three things: data subscriptions, AI-enabled solutions built on that data, and satellite services, where a government buys its own satellites or dedicated capacity on Planet's fleet. Satellite services sit in the defense and intelligence line, which was $81.0 million of Q2's $116.1 million, up 93% from a year earlier. The 10-Q credits that jump mainly to large contract expansions with existing customers and partly to the satellite delivery. Civil government was $17.5 million, up 6.5%, and commercial was $17.6 million, up 16.7%.

When a customer takes ownership of a satellite, Planet books that revenue at a point in time, on acceptance. Sweden's first Pelican launched in May, four months after the contract, and was handed over in Q2. In August, Germany awarded Planet a dedicated-capacity tender worth up to €25 million over five years. Management said the satellite services pipeline holds over $4 billion of identified opportunities, more than a quarter of it qualified as near-term.

Q4 is where these deliveries matter. The full-year guide implies Q4 revenue of $116.8 million to $127.8 million if Q3 lands at the guide midpoint. Over-time revenue on our trend reaches about $112 million in Q4, so the top half of that range needs more satellite acceptances. We forecast Q4 at $122.0 million, with $10.0 million from point-in-time deliveries.

Margins

Planet guided Q3 non-GAAP gross margin to 56% to 58%, after 59% in Q2 and 56% in Q1. On a GAAP basis, gross margin has moved between 53.5% and 57.6% over the last six quarters, pulled down by satellite services costs and depreciation from new Pelican launches. We forecast 57.5% non-GAAP and about 55.1% GAAP for Q3.

The bigger swing is in adjusted EBITDA. Planet earned $13.9 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 and guided Q3 to a loss of $1 million to $6 million, which the CFO tied to its “focus on investing to drive sustained growth”. Our extra $5.5 million of revenue at the guide's margin lifts that to about break-even, a loss near $0.4 million.

Below adjusted EBITDA, we assume depreciation of about $11.5 million as new satellites enter service, net interest income of about $4.9 million on $865 million of cash and investments, and taxes of $0.8 million. Stock-based compensation was $17.1 million in Q2; at $17.5 million in Q3, it turns our non-GAAP loss of about $6.8 million into a GAAP loss of about $25 million, or -$0.07 a share.

Balance sheet and dilution

Planet ended Q2 with $865 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, up from about $640 million at the end of January. Three things funded the increase. Holders exercised public warrants for about $108 million in Q1. Planet generated $21.3 million of free cash flow in the first half. And it sold 3,782,460 shares through its new at-the-market program in Q2, for $122.4 million before $1.6 million of costs, an average of about $32 a share.

The at-the-market program, set up on June 5, allows up to $1.5 billion of share sales, so up to about $1.38 billion remained at the end of July. Planet had 340.4 million Class A and 23.5 million Class B shares outstanding on August 27, 363.8 million in total, against 309.2 million weighted shares a year earlier.

The other source of dilution is the $460 million of 0.50% convertible notes due 2030. Each $1,000 converts into 83.6715 shares, a conversion price of $11.95 and 38.5 million shares if all of them convert. The stock traded above 130% of that price for long enough that holders could convert between August 1 and October 31; the Q3 10-Q will show whether any did. Planet can settle conversions in shares, and capped call contracts bought with the notes are meant to offset part of that dilution, up to a cap. At $12.55, the stock is now only 5% above it.

Capital spending is rising. Planet raised its full-year capex guide to $100 million to $115 million, from $80 million to $95 million, and guided Q3 to $30 million to $37 million, after $27.3 million in Q2.

Total backlog fell from $906 million at the end of April to $814.9 million at the end of July as Planet delivered on it, while the part due within a year kept rising.

What management said

On why Q3 is guided below Q2:

“As a reminder, our strong Q2 revenue outperformance was due in part to the timing of the handover of our commissioned satellite in Q2 rather than Q3, shifting revenue between the two quarters without changing our full-year outlook.”

Ashley Johnson, CFO, Q2 FY27 earnings call, September 3, 2026

On the backlog:

“This implies that by executing on contracts already in our backlog, we could recognize over $400 million in revenue over the next four quarters, not including the impact of any new business or renewals closed during that period.”

Ashley Johnson, CFO, Q2 FY27 earnings call, September 3, 2026

On the satellite services pipeline:

“Today, we have over $4 billion of identified opportunities for satellite services, over 25% of which is qualified as near-term pipeline.”

Will Marshall, CEO, Q2 FY27 earnings call, September 3, 2026

On how lumpy the new revenue will be:

“While we scale our satellite services business, we expect to experience variability in this metric quarter-to-quarter.”

Ashley Johnson, CFO, Q2 FY27 earnings call, September 3, 2026, on point-in-time revenue

Positioning

Short sellers have been adding. FINRA reported 36.8 million shares sold short at the October 15 settlement, 10.1% of the 363.8 million shares outstanding and 3.3 days of average volume, up from 27.7 million on August 14. To compare it with other heavily shorted names, see our most-shorted stocks list (MOST-SHORTED).

Options price a large move. The December 18 at-the-money straddle cost about $3.73 on November 6, an expected move of 29.7% from the $12.55 close, with implied volatility near 102%. That expiry should include the report, but it also covers two weeks after it.

Insiders have sold, not bought. Since June, the CEO, CFO, co-founder and several directors have sold shares under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans, including 200,000 shares by CEO Will Marshall at $25.92 on July 10. No insider has bought shares on the open market in the past year.

At $12.55, Planet's market value is about $4.57 billion. Adding the $460 million of notes and subtracting the $865 million of cash gives an enterprise value of about $4.16 billion, 9.4 times our FY27 revenue forecast. On trailing sales, the stock trades at 12.1 times, against a median of 4.0 times for similar-size aerospace and defense companies.

Our assumptions

All three cases use depreciation of $11.5 million, net interest income of $4.9 million, stock-based compensation of $17.5 million, taxes of $0.8 million and 365 million weighted shares.

The downside case is what happens if over-time revenue stops growing, as the guide assumes, and a customer satellite acceptance slips past January. Q3 would land at the guide midpoint, a small miss against consensus, and the full year would fall below the $430 million floor, which would mean a guide cut. The upside case needs another satellite handover in Q3 and over-time growth close to last quarter's.

Risks

• Q2's recurring revenue was weaker than the beat suggests. Without the handover, over-time revenue of $102.0 million sat at the bottom of the $102 million to $107 million Q2 guide. If the guide was built that way, management's Q3 figure may simply be accurate.
• Concentration in defense and intelligence. That line was 70% of Q2 revenue. A pause in government spending, a delayed award or a contract terminated for convenience would show up quickly.
• Satellite acceptance timing. Point-in-time revenue arrives only when a customer accepts a satellite or ground station, and one slip can move $10 million or more between quarters, or out of the fiscal year.
• Dilution. Up to about $1.38 billion of the share program remained at the end of July, and the convertible notes are close to the money.
• Spending. Adjusted EBITDA is guided to a loss for Q3, and capex is rising, so a revenue miss would hit cash flow harder than in past years.

What to watch on the call

• The over-time and point-in-time split. Over-time revenue above $105 million would confirm our thesis; anything near $102 million would support the guide.
• The Q4 guide. Whether it holds the implied $116.8 million to $127.8 million, and how much of it depends on satellite acceptances.
• Backlog and the next-twelve-months share. A rise above $407 million due within a year would point to more growth in FY28.
• New satellite services contracts. Any conversion of the $4 billion pipeline into signed deals, and the German capacity tender's first revenue.
• Share sales and conversions. How many shares Planet sold in Q3, and whether any noteholders converted before October 31.
• Launches. The second Tanager hyperspectral satellite and 18 SuperDoves were shipped for SpaceX's Transporter-18 mission this fall, and a Pelican is booked on an Isar Aerospace launch next year.

Sources

• Q2 FY27 10-Q, filed September 3, 2026, accession 0001193125-26-382016: revenue by recognition model, customer type and region; at-the-market sales; convertible notes
• Q2 FY27 earnings release (8-K), filed September 3, 2026, accession 0001193125-26-381874: guidance, backlog, RPO and non-GAAP reconciliations
• Q2 FY27 earnings call transcript, September 3, 2026
• Q1 FY27 earnings call transcript, June 4, 2026
• Q1 FY27 10-Q, filed June 5, 2026, accession 0001193125-26-258304: quarterly figures
• Q3 FY26 10-Q, filed December 10, 2025, accession 0001193125-25-314295: revenue by customer type
• FY26 10-K, filed March 23, 2026, accession 0001193125-26-119957: full-year revenue by customer type
• At-the-market program 8-K, filed June 5, 2026, accession 0001140361-26-024109: equity distribution agreement
• Analyst consensus captured November 3, 2026; short interest from FINRA settlement October 15, 2026; options and prices at the November 6, 2026 close.

This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.