BAWAG Group AG (BAWAY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, everyone. Before we start with the call, let me remind you of the following. In regards of the planned transaction of permanent TSB, be reminded that the transaction is regulated by the Irish takeover rules and therefore are restricted in the information we can provide on this call. As a result, we will not take Q&A in relation to the PTSB transaction, and any updates will be communicated by regulatory announcements. With that, I hand over to our CEO, Anna Zabuzakuk.

Thanks, Utah. I hope everyone is doing well this morning. I am joined by Enver, our CFO. Let us start with the summary of third quarter results on slide three. We delivered net profit of 248 million euros, EPS of 3 euros 18 cents, and a return on tangible common equity of 27% during the third quarter. The operating performance of our business was very strong, with core revenues of $599 million, up 8% versus prior year, pre-provisioned profits of $425 million, and a cost-income ratio of 30%. We continue to realize the benefits of investments over the years as we build out a pan-European and U.S. banking group. Total risk costs were $79 million, translating into a risk-cost ratio of 56 basis points. We have a low NPL ratio of 1% and continue to see solid credit performance across our businesses. In terms of our balance sheet and capital, average customer loans were flat, and average customer funding was down 1% quarter over quarter. We have a Fortress balance sheet with 13 billion euros of cash, equal to approximately 19% of our balance sheet, an LCR of 197%, and overall strong asset quality. During the first three quarters of the year, we worked diligently to ensure we positioned ourselves to fully self-fund the PTSB transaction. As of the third quarter, we landed on a CET1 ratio of 17.1%, translating into over $1 billion of excess capital required to self-fund the deal. We have invested considerable time and resources in the PTSP transaction, and we look forward to the upcoming High Court decision at the end of the month and receipt of the remaining regulatory approval. We started this process in November of 2025 when we made a strategic decision to enter the announced public auction. We spent six months of due diligence as part of a competitive auction process that required thorough analysis, planning, and coordination, and we were pleased to emerge from that process as a successful bidder. After the signing of the transaction and subsequent shareholder approval in July, we have spent a significant amount of time communicating with regulators, the PTSB board and leadership team, and many other stakeholders introducing ourselves and our business. Our goal has been to listen, learn, and prepare for a smooth and seamless integration. We are confident in having put our best foot forward, being patient, staying disciplined, working constructively and transparently at every stage of the process, all while rising above the noise. If the PTSP transaction is approved, this will be our 15th acquisition since 2015. 15. Acquisitions are a key plank of our strategy as we continue to build a pan-European and U.S. banking group with the capabilities and scale to effectively compete and deliver sustainable results long into the future. PTSP would be our first public company acquisition with different dynamics, but always staying consistent to our principles. We focus on delivering results through our actions and avoiding empty slogans and self-promotion, as our actions speak louder than our words. We have been consistent about our views of the Irish market and key focus. Ireland is one of the most attractive markets across Europe, with all the ingredients for successful banking, pro-growth economic policies, rich in human capital, and a bridge to the EU, the UK, and the US. We aim to drive competition through significant investment and innovation, supporting PTSB's customers and, more broadly, the Irish economy, while delivering long-term sustainable growth. We are excited to get to work and embrace the journey ahead. We will provide an updated midterm outlook with full-year earnings, assuming a successful close of the PTSB transaction. Excluding any potential PTSB impact, we reconfirm all of our 2026 targets with net profit over at €960 million, return on tangible common equity over 20%, and a cost-income ratio under 33%. Moving to slide four, as far as capital development, our reported CET1 ratio landed at 17.1 percent, equal to over 1 billion euros of excess capital above our CET1 target of 12.5 percent. This puts us in the position to fully self-fund the PTSB acquisition, which requires approximately 450 basis points of capital, subject to high court and regulatory approvals. We generated 116 basis points of gross capital from earnings during the third quarter. RWA growth accounted for approximately 30 basis points of capital, reflecting the changing asset mix and growth in our consumer and SME business, which has been on a positive trajectory the past few quarters. We also restarted our dividend accrual, accruing 100% of earnings in the third quarter equal to 248 million euros of net profit, or 3 euros and 21 cents per share, And plan to do the same for the fourth quarter as well. With that, I'll hand it over to Enver.

Thank you, Enes. Moving to slide six, our P&L and balance sheet overview. We delivered a strong third quarter with net profit of 248 million euros and a profit before tax of 335 million euros. Net profit was down 3% versus prior quarter due to a positive tax effect in the second quarter following a participation sale, While profit before tax was up 1%. Return on tangible common equity was 27%, based on a current CT1 ratio of 17.1%. Core revenues amounted to 599 million euros, up 8% versus the prior year, and 2% versus prior quarter, while pre-provision profit reached 425 million euros. The cost-income ratio was below 30%, with synergy gains materializing faster than anticipated. Risk costs amounted to 79 million euros, translating into a risk-cost ratio of 56 basis points, reflecting the changing asset mix. Underlying credit performance remained solid, with an MPL ratio of 1%. Earnings generated 116 basis points of gross capital during the third quarter, supporting a reported C to 1 ratio of 17.1%. We also resumed the dividend accrual at 100% of third quarter earnings, which is already deducted in the C to 1 ratio. In terms of balance sheet, average customer loans were flat, and average customer funding declined by 1% quarter over quarter. However, we continue to maintain a fortress balance sheet with 13 billion euros in cash, representing 19% of total assets, an LCR of 197%, and a strong asset quality. Moving to slide 7, core revenues. Net interest income increased by 2% in the quarter, with customer loans flat in Q326, and supported by a continued positive trend in consumer SME, including credit cards. Mortgage volumes remain subdued. Net interest margin at 350 base points reflect the ongoing changing asset mix, while the deposit beta decreased to 28%. NI rate sensitivity is unchanged. Every 25 base points increase delivers 25 million per year after 12 months and 50 million euros per year after 24 months. Net commission income with a stable development at €102 million results across business lines of retail SME continue to perform well. For the fourth quarter, we expect net interest income to grow gradually at a stable development in net commission income. On slide eight, operating expenses amounted to €181 million, representing a 2% quarterly decline with a cost-income ratio Our initiatives across the group develop better than anticipated, therefore expect to outperform our outlook. Risk costs for the quarter came in at 79 million euros, up 3 million versus product order. The increase reflects continued shift in asset mix toward high-margin consumer and unsecured lending. Unfortunately, underlying credit performance remains strong with an NPL ratio of just 1%. On slide 9, the retail SME segment delivered net profit of 218 million euros, a return on tangible common equity of 35.8%. Pre-provision profits amounted to 379 million euros, 4% higher than the previous quarter. Risk costs amounted to 75 million euros or 77 basis points. Driven by the asset mix change, wild credit quality remained solid with an NPL ratio of 1.6%. We expect continued growth across the franchise. On corporate, real estate, and public sector, the segment delivered net profit of 35 million euros with a return on tangible common equity of 23.2%. We saw more redemptions in the quarter, but our focus remains unchanged on discipline, underwriting, and risk-adjusted returns. Finally, on slide 10, we are entering the last quarter of the year. Profitability remains robust, Plus, capital generation continues to be strong, asset quality is resilient, and we remain on track to deliver our 2026 targets while preparing for the next phase of growth through the planned acquisition of PTSP. And as mentioned earlier, we'll provide updated midterm targets with our full-year results in February. And with that, operator, let's open the call for Q&A. Thank you.

Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. We will now go to the first question. One moment, please. And your first question today comes from the line of Gulnara Sekulova from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Thank you for presentation, and thank you for taking my questions. The first question on the deposit momentum and NII, can you please unpack the key drivers behind the deposit outlaws, with the corporate, real estate, and public sector down 26% year and retail and SME down 2%? And where are you seeing the most intense competition across products and geographies for the deposits? And looking ahead, where do you expect the deposit And related to that, to what extent can the shift towards high-yielding lending upset funding pressures and support NAI growth? And when should we expect the benefits from this asset mix shift to become visible in NAI? And the second question on risk-weighted assets, how should we think about the risk-weighted assets growth relative to organic growth going forward, particularly as the portfolio shifts towards high-risk assets? Do you expect the resulting capital headbands to persist going forward, and what levers could you pull to mitigate the impact on capital generation? Thank you.

Okay, great. Hi, Kunara. That was a lot to digest.

Yeah, let me take the first one. I think you asked about the deposits momentum, the outflows. So more of the same that we have seen in the past. It's mainly two products. One is the The online German deposit business, we decided a few quarters ago not to compete in the market because we think it's overpriced, and we are still seeing outflows in that segment. And the second one is the Austrian public sector deposit base, where the competition comes from the Austrian Bundesrat, so the government offer, which is again, you know, above why we decided not to compete. But all the other franchises, all their deposits are quite stable or growing. You asked about civilization. Well, I think once that normalizes, but we see already lower outflows

compared to the product orders in that segment.

I think the second block of questions was about asset growth, I guess, and also RWA's. There was just, yeah. Is that right, Gunara?

Yes, correct. So if you look about the moving parts of NAI, to what extent the shift towards high-yielding lending to unsecured lending can upset the funding pressures and support the growth?

Yeah. So I think on the consumer estimate side, we'll see that trend continuing. It was quite stable over the last couple of quarters. And what is harder to predict is mortgages. We did expect more growth this year, but competition was really very intense in terms of pricing levels. That's why we stayed very patient, and that's why we see a small decline there. And also in Q3, we had more redemptions in the non-retail segment, especially in the real estate. Again, it depends on the overall market. And for us, nothing changes. We will be disciplined and will not chase volumes in a particular quarter, but more a look at it from a long-term perspective.

And when it comes to risk-related assets?

Well, it's all grown in line with the asset development, and the only thing that we have not disclosed is obviously that we are working on different measures, including SRTs, to potentially offset these.

So you don't expect these headwinds to persist going forward, the 30 basis points headwind that we saw from the mix shift. So you expect this to pay out, essentially, to not persist going forward?

No, it's the same. So as long as we have that asset mix change, you will see high front book RWE density, obviously, given the mix of the assets. The only thing I said is we will work on different measures to offset that RWE growth, and that's not reflecting Q3. It might be Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Amit Brandan from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi. Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first one is on risk costs. How should we think about the 50 WIPs outlook for 26? You have 56 WIPs during the quarter, 52 WIPs year-to-date. Can you talk about the drivers here? I think you mentioned solid underlying trends. So anything that you can give between a split between asset growth and stage three coverage provision risk? And the second one is on cost. You are running well ahead. Should we expect this trend to continue? Anything seasonal that we should keep in mind for Q4 that could drive the number higher, please? Thank you.

Thanks, Amin. On the risk of outlook, pretty much the same answer as I gave to Bunara is, as long as we see that asset mix change going on, you will see high risk cost ratio. What is hard to predict is the redemption profile. If you see earlier redemptions than expected, as well as the mortgage growth, which was more muted than what we expected, which then becomes a technical thing of a denominator. And if you then look at the risk cost ratio, it might be a bit elevated. I think we are still confident that we'll be around the 50 base points for the full year. And on optics, yeah, I think trend is very obvious. Q3 lower than Q2, it should be quite stable for Q4, I would assume. And we don't expect any, you know, one-offs or any seasonal effects for Q4.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of May Nemes from UBS. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Two of these, please. The first one would be on your cache boxes. I was just wondering if you could update us on potential deployment of cache into higher yielding securities. I think you've been feeling uncomfortable in the spread environment, now they've seen some spread widening clearly. Any updated thoughts on that? What's holding you back? What can hold you back from larger deployments going forward? And the second would be just a quick update on your lending pipeline on non-retail. I hear you. It's hard to predict redemptions on repayments, but if you could just talk a little bit about opportunities, particularly in corporate lending and also perhaps in real estate, what you're seeing in the market at the moment. Thank you.

All right. Thanks, Mate. Cash deployment. We are seeing the spread starting to widen across certain asset classes. Obviously, sovereign, I think, is first and foremost, which we have almost no exposure. It's pretty de minimis, under 1%. But that's been the case for a number of years. I think we'll be patient. There's a lot going on. We see some areas that we think could be attractive, but we're going to be disciplined and patient and just assess the overall market as we think risk is repricing generally across the board. And that's something hopefully we'll be able to be the beneficiaries of as we've been patient for a number of years now. And then on the non-retail, I think that's a good question. The reality is you see a pipeline build up. In those times, you see pretty fast redemptions that are unexpected, and that's one that we just got to be patient. We're not going to manage it by quarter in terms of volume growth. We feel pretty good about the pipeline that we have going into the end of the year, but that's just cyclical. It's hard to be quite frank. I think it's hard to pinpoint in any given quarter, let alone, I guess, across the whole year or so. But we'll be patient. We see some good opportunities, but we're never going to chase anything for the sake of volume growth. Thanks, Marta. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Gabor Kemeny from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good morning. Firstly, on the NII outlook, please, I mean, you commented on the deposit flows. How much competitive pressure do you see on deposit spreads? Looking at your NII sensitivity guidance, I guess, how much offset can we possibly assume from deposit spreads drifting a bit from the current levels, limiting the upside from higher rates. That's the first one. And then secondly, coming back to costs, I mean, you keep beating on consensus and expectations. Can you comment on what levers have you found to improve the cost efficiency? And is this kind of fully in line with your budget, or are there any trends which have been more supportive than you assumed initially? Thank you.

Yeah, so, Gabor, on deposit competition, I mentioned the two examples. So, we have seen quite an intense market in Germany, especially for the online deposits, as well as the Bundesrat's offer in Austria. Overall, we would assume that the competition will pick up. If you look at it differently, what we have seen in early days is not so much the deposit pricing that has picked up, other than a few offers that we see in the market, but it translated into much higher mortgage pricing intensity. So the mortgage spreads dropped significantly over the last couple of months, which we think is a reflection of the higher deposit margins that we see on the other side. But going forward, yes, we would expect more intense competition in the market overall.

On the cost side, Gabra, I'd say it's no different than how we've approached it over the past decade now that we've been a public company. It's every quarter you try to strive for just getting a little bit better, and we talk about continuous improvement. There's no silver bullet. It's not AI, which I think is a bit of a cliche. AI is an enabler, just like every other technological improvement that has happened that we've seen. So I think the key is being disciplined, the approach in terms of taking an absolute cost focus as opposed to just looking at cost-income ratio. There's a lot of things that impact the denominator and the cost-income ratio. So, yeah, just more of the same and being very disciplined. We are starting to see more broadly the benefits of a scalable platform, and when you really understand your technology stack, what we call technology operations or tech ops, I think that makes a real difference in being able to control that technology when you in-source as opposed to relying on third parties. And that's something that I think has been consistent over the years. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Jordan Bartlam from Medio Banker. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thanks for the questions. One firstly on other income, or fees specifically. So the fees and commissions was flat on the last quarter, and you're continuing to guide for a stable development for the rest of the year. Just curious what's causing that line not to grow more from here. So the advisory-type revenues seem like they should be growing a bit quicker, and I think the track record there has been pretty stellar. So why is this not really translating into more growth? That would be my first question. And then secondly, on the cost side, again, you flagged a few of the drivers. I just wonder how much more we could expect in terms of cost energy from the Kanab and Bartley's deals, or are they largely done at this stage? So, these are my key questions. Thank you.

Yeah, let me just take the cost, and then we'll address the other question. Jordan, it's not so much any one particular acquisition. We look at it at a group level. That's how we manage things centrally. It's hard to pinpoint to any particular entity or acquisition. It's just part of your continuous improvement cycle. And I think that's a competitive advantage that we look at things centrally. We try to manage in terms of the overall platform. I mentioned the technology operations, but it also is in the central functions. Commercially, obviously, that's more local in terms of customer-facing roles, but I think there's still quite a bit to do on this front. The technology is the greatest enabler, right, coupled with having, I think, a centrally steered business, I think, as a competitive manager.

Yes, Jordan, on the fee income question. So, in reality, we were ahead of plan in the first three quarters. Especially Q3 and Q2 were stronger than what we expected. So, keeping it stable is actually above what we initially forecasted for the fee income. That's the main reason. And the second reason is just given the seasonality of it. Certain fee lines are cut off basically before Christmas, if you think about advisory and the likes. So there's that seasonal effect. And again, we are ahead of plan on the overall line. That's why we think being stable in Q4 is actually a strong outcome.

Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Jovan C. Kimmich from Odo BHF. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Thanks a lot for the call. Maybe at this stage, if you could provide, I mean, what's your rate outlook for the next quarters? And, of course, in kind of, let's say, combination with organic loan growth outlook, where would you see, actually, NII trajectory going into 2027? Of course, I'm not talking a bit, including a PTSP. And I think it's also, I think somebody asked in the call about what's the likelihood of deploying cash into high-yielding security. So, overall, where would you see, let's say, on current rate of NII improving next year or not?

Thanks. Yeah. Thanks, Jorwin. I mean, I don't want to start talking about next year's forecast, but I think it provides some guidance how we think about it. We do not have a rate opinion, so we try to be very neutral in terms of our positioning, but the underlying franchise obviously has the rate sensitivity, as we have discussed, but especially on the deposit side. So I think if you go through the main drivers, obviously the positives are higher rates, higher sensitivity, higher deposit margin. That's something that we'll expect to see in Q4, but also going into 27. The asset mix change on secure consumer and SME is a positive driver, and that's also reflected in the prior quarters. I would say on the more cautious side, I think competition, the deposits will pick up. So that will add, obviously, to the deposit betas. They should go up. And the other thing is, not so much, it doesn't matter so much in the short term, but we see obviously very intense pricing on the mortgage side, and that's why volumes have been low. So there's a mix. I think overall it's a positive trend that will continue, but there are a couple of things that we need to look out for.

Okay, very helpful. Thanks a lot.

Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Domenico Maggio from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hello, good morning. One on credit, if I may. You have this very useful slide on MREL where you basically mentioned that you intend to have a single point of entry with PTSB and that you expect existing MREL resources to still count during a transitional period. I just wanted to check with you, is the transitional period basically 2027, and then from end of the year 2027, you'll basically get a requirement for the combined entity, and therefore the existing REL from PTSB will not count in 2028?

Yes, thank you, Domenico. We are not in a position to disclose that yet. We'll disclose it as soon as we have it, and we'll make it public.

Okay, and capital is 81 and tier two are still expected to count. Is that correct? Because on the slide, you just touched on Mrel, just wanted to make sure that there are no nuances between the two. Or is there a transitional period also for capital?

No. Previously, we already did capital on a group level. AMBRL was on at the OPCO level, and that is going to migrate to group level. I think that's the reason why.

Okay, so no transitional period for ET1 and TR2.

No, I would not assume that.

They would still count. Okay, thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Sighi from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Good morning.

Thank you. Thanks, Jeremy. We've been in the U.S. market for, man, 15 years, so this wasn't a recent development. But just more broadly, your question, or specifically to your question around opportunities, I think Enver touched on it. The one area that's the most challenged is mortgage volumes. And not so much from a volume standpoint, right? People are lending out there. It's just from a spread standpoint, it's pretty anemic. And we'll be patient. We'll stick to our credit box. Consumer and SME, whether it's credit cards, consumer loans, specialty finance, that's actually gone pretty well, I think better than expected this year. So that's been an interesting dynamic or interplay between mortgages and kind of non-mortgages in the retail and SME. And then on the corporate, real estate, public sector, real estate's been the one that's been the most volatile. So we've seen, we've had, I'd say, unusually high redemptions this particular year. But we have a good pipeline. So, you know, not to front run, but we think hopefully that should materialize in the fourth quarter. And then in the corporates, it's a tough slog in terms of just where a corporate lending is at. That's a lot of volume that we don't see really attractive spreads at the moment. In public sector, we'll see how things reprice given just the developments more broadly. But, you know, AI has been a big area of focus for a lot of banks and private credit platforms. We don't have any exposure there. That's something that we've just never been able to get our hands around, to be quite honest. So we'll be patient. We see some good opportunities.

Thanks. And the U.S., obviously, I'm aware of where you've been there for a while. It's just whether there's any growth opportunities, you know, whether that's a better place to deploy capital at this point.

I think on the commercial real estate front, in particular, when you think about resi, industrial, even some idiosyncratic office opportunities, I think the U.S. is pretty attractive. But also, the U.S. is where we've seen the highest redemptions, Jeremy. So it's interesting in the market. We'll be patient, but we see pretty good opportunities. The question is, will they materialize? Okay. That is it. Thanks very much. Thank you.

Thank you. That was our final question for today. I will now hand the call back to Anas Adesaku, CEO, for closing remarks.

Thank you, Operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining this morning. We look forward to being in touch in the coming weeks, in the coming months, and at your end if we don't speak before. So take care. Have a nice day.