Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (XHR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Hello, everyone. And welcome to the Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Charlie and I'll be coordinating the call today. I will now hand over to our host, Amanda Bryant, Vice President of Finance to begin. Amanda, please go ahead.

Thank you, Charlie and welcome to Xenia Hotels & Resorts third quarter 2023 earnings call and webcast. I'm here with Marcel Verbaas, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer; Barry Bloom, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Atish Shah, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Marcel will begin with a discussion on our performance. Barry will follow with more details on operating trends and capital expenditure projects, and Atish will conclude today's remarks on our balance sheet and outlook. We will then open the call for Q&A. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that certain statements made on this call are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, as described in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings and could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the earnings release that we issued yesterday, along with the comments on this call, are made only as of today, November 1, 2023, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update any of these forward-looking statements as actual events unfold. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to net loss and definitions of certain items referred to in our remarks in the earnings release, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website. The third quarter 2023 property-level information we will be speaking about today is on a same-property basis for all 32 hotels, unless specified otherwise. An archive of this call will be available on our website for 90 days. I will now turn it over to Marcel to get started.

Thanks, Amanda. And good morning, everyone. Overall results in the third quarter were in line with our expectations. Our demand segmentation mix continues to revert towards pre-pandemic levels, as business transient and group demand continues to recover. A couple of important renovation projects have essentially wrapped up and the transformation of the Hyatt Regency Scottsdale Resort & Spa at Gainey Ranch is well underway. Our recently acquired hotels, W Nashville and Hyatt Regency Portland at the Oregon Convention Center, reported a solid quarter of earnings contribution, as they were among our top-performing assets during the third quarter. For the quarter, we reported a net loss of $8.5 million, adjusted EBITDAre $46.3 million, and adjusted FFO per share was $0.26. Same-property RevPAR in the quarter was $158.48, a 0.4% increase, compared to the third quarter of 2022. Occupancy increased 70 basis points, while average daily rate decreased 0.6%. Our results were meaningfully impacted by three of our properties undergoing significant renovations in the quarter. This included the comprehensive renovation at Kimpton Hotel Monaco Salt Lake City, the guestrooms renovation at Grand Bohemian Hotel Orlando, and the transformative renovation at Hyatt Regency Scottsdale. As Barry will discuss in more detail in his remarks, the Salt Lake City renovation has now been completed. The Orlando project will be completed in the next several days. The Scottsdale project is progressing as planned. Excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, RevPAR increased 4%, compared to the third quarter of 2022, highlighting the impact this project had on our results in the third quarter, and we'll continue to have in the near term. Compared to the third quarter of 2019 for the 29 hotels we currently own that were open at that time, excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, RevPAR was down 1.1% in the third quarter. For these 29 hotels, occupancy was roughly 11 points below 2019, while ADR was up 14.3%. While expense growth continues to put pressure on bottom-line results in the lodging industry, margin contraction for our portfolio moderated in the third quarter. Our hotel EBITDA margin on a same-property basis declined by 169 basis points, compared to the third quarter of 2022, which was in line with our expectations. Excluding Scottsdale, margins contracted just 60 basis points, which is a significant improvement compared to the second-quarter margin decline. Recall that property-level expenses in the third quarter of last year started normalizing, as many of our properties filled open positions and resumed services, as the year progresses. Turning to our individual markets, in the third quarter, the strongest RevPAR growth occurred in several markets that are more dependent on business transient and group demand. Houston, Dallas, Portland and Nashville reported double-digit RevPAR growth, while Pittsburgh and San Francisco experienced high single-digit RevPAR growth. Due to renovation disruption, Phoenix and Salt Lake City were our two weakest RevPAR markets in the quarter. Several leisure-oriented markets, including Napa and Savannah, experienced mid-teen percentage RevPAR declines. We are clearly seeing signs of leisure demand normalizing from its historically high post-pandemic levels, both within our portfolio and in overall industry data. However, our portfolio has always benefited from a balanced mix of group, business transient, and leisure demand. We are continuing to see the gradual shift back to our pre-pandemic segmentation mix. Group business remains a bright spot. Group room revenue in the third quarter was up a little over 3% over the third quarter of 2022. Excluding Scottsdale in both periods, our group room revenue was up about 9%. We continue to see meaningful improvements in group business at our important group-oriented hotels in Orlando, Portland, Atlanta, and Dallas. By way of reminder, we estimate the group has historically been about a third of our overall business mix. Group revenue for the full year 2023 is up about 13% versus last year for our same-property portfolio, and up about 16% if we exclude Scottsdale, where the meeting space is now mostly unavailable. Group ADR for the full year 2023 is up about 4%, again excluding Scottsdale. Atish will provide an early look into our 2024 group base during his remarks. Business transient demand continues to improve during the third quarter. Overall, occupancy improved on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays, compared to the third quarter of 2022, while weekend occupancy was down slightly, compared to the same quarter last year. Two of our four strongest RevPAR growth markets reflected results from our most recent acquisitions, Hyatt Regency Portland at the Oregon Convention Center and W Nashville, with RevPAR increasing by 26.8% and 17.3%, respectively, at these hotels for the quarter. Both properties are benefiting from significant growth in group business, as they continue on our path towards stabilization. For 2023, group room revenue on the books at both properties has increased by more than 40% over 2022 levels, driven by solid increases in room nights. Business transient production is also driving growth, as both properties increased volumes with important corporate accounts in recent months. Our other top-performing markets for the quarter were both located in Texas, where the Houston and Dallas markets reported third-quarter RevPAR growth of 25.2% and 14.2%, respectively. Our hotels in these markets not only drove outstanding third-quarter results, but they are also well-positioned to capture additional growth in the coming years because of favorable market dynamics and important capital investment in recent years. Overall market fundamentals reflect the favorable supply and demand backdrop. Texas continues to be a high-growth state, both in terms of population growth and business incubation and relocations. Supply growth through 2025 in our specific sub-markets is also benign. The Dallas CBD sub-market is expected to peak at 2.3%, the Houston Woodlands sub-market at 2.7%, and the Houston Galleria sub-market is expected to see no new supply over the next two years. In terms of earnings contribution, our Houston properties peaked in 2015, and since that time have successfully broadened their base of business and reduced reliance on city-wide conventions. We also invested a significant amount of capital into our three Houston hotels, leading up to and through the pandemic. The two western received about $50 million in capital, mostly by renovating and upgrading guest-facing areas. And in 2020 and 2022, we invested approximately $12 million in additional capital expenditures at Marriott Woodlands, primarily on significant improvements to guest rooms and guest bathrooms. We are pleased to see the benefits of these investments as the market continues its recovery from the pandemic, and as economic activity in the region continues to improve. Despite the significant capital expenditure we have made into these hotels during our ownership period, our overall investment basis of approximately $360,000 per key, on average for the three hotels, remains attractive, especially given their excellent locations, high quality, and extensive meeting facilities and supporting amenities. I would now like to turn to our Scottsdale project. As I mentioned earlier, this transformational renovation is progressing as planned, from a schedule and cost perspective. While the disruption to our short-term results is significant, this disruption also continues to be in line with our expectations. As we anticipated, demand in the Phoenix, Scottsdale market has softened a bit this year, particularly after a very strong first quarter that was aided by the Super Bowl in early February. The market is experiencing similar signs of moderating leisure demand that we are witnessing in other markets. As we indicated when we initially announced this transformational renovation, our strategy revolves around further optimizing the demand segmentation mix of the resort, and being able to drive greater and higher-rated group business. We also aim to create and upgrade the experience that will allow the resort to compete more effectively within its luxury competitive set for higher-rated corporate, transient, and leisure demand. This competitive set includes a number of resorts that have also received significant capital investments in recent years. The expansion of our meeting space, the significant upgrades through our pool complex, the relaunching and revitalization of our food and beverage amenities, the substantial investment in our upgraded rooms products, and the ultimate branding to a Grand Hyatt Resort are all important components of this transformation. When we initially discussed this project, we indicated that we believe the record 2022 results at the resorts were driven by an unusually high level of post-pandemic domestic leisure demand, as well as expenses that were well below normalized levels. We also spoke about viewing 2019 as a more normalized year, both from a demand segmentation perspective and earnings base for the property. Given the resort's aging facilities and an expected normalization of leisure demand in the U.S. overall in the Phoenix Scottsdale market in particular, we completed an extensive analysis of long-term supply and demand trends, the competitive landscape, and the challenges and opportunities that the resort presented. Everything we are seeing in the market this year has further increased our confidence in the decision we made to commence this transformative renovation and upbranding to a Grand Hyatt, from both a scope and timing perspective. The Phoenix Scottsdale market continues to be very attractive for all segments of hotel demand, which will be bolstered by the expected economic and population growth in the markets in the years and decades ahead. With a well-located and upgraded and expanded Grand Hyatt Resort, we believe we will be able to compete very effectively in the Scottsdale luxury resort market. As a result, we expect the resort to grow earnings significantly over both the 2019 pre-pandemic peak year and the outsized leisure-driven results we achieved in 2022. As a reminder, we have a relatively low investment basis in the resort, and we will continue to do so after making this approximately $110 million additional investment. Our anticipated gross investment basis of less than $700,000 per key upon completion of the project is especially attractive when compared to recent sales of comparable resorts. We remain extremely excited about the resort's future and continue to believe strongly that this project will be a meaningful driver for portfolio earnings growth in the years ahead. Despite a lot of economic and geopolitical uncertainty right now, the year has unfolded largely as expected, as it relates to our portfolio performance. While we have been impacted by substantial renovation disruption as anticipated, we are optimistic that our continued investments in our portfolio will drive attractive returns. Atish will provide additional details regarding our revised full-year 2023 outlook. We have slightly lowered the midpoint of our projected adjusted EBITDAre range to reflect the recent demand trends. However, we continue to believe that our portfolio is well-positioned to outperform in the years ahead, given its high quality, excellent locations, diversity of demand mix, and recent and ongoing capital investments. I will now turn the call over to Barry, as he will provide more detail on our portfolio's performance and an update on our capital expenditure projects.

Thank you, Marcel. And good morning, everyone. As Marcel indicated in his remarks, the leading markets, in terms of RevPAR growth in the quarter, include many of our hotels that cater to group and business transient customers, supporting our view that the recovery has extended beyond leisure-oriented properties. As expected, results in the third quarter reflected renovation impact along with challenging year-ago growth comparisons. The quarter began with occupancy of 63.7% in July, with an ADR of $245.01, resulting in RevPAR of $156.12, a 1.2% increase compared to July 2022. August occupancy was 62.6% with an ADR of $237.23, resulting in RevPAR of $148.54, a 2.1% increase compared to 2022. The strongest month of the quarter, as expected, was September with occupancy of 65% at an ADR of $263.51, resulting in RevPAR of $171.18. However, this represented a 1.9% decline from September 2022. Excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, same-property RevPAR increased 4% in the quarter compared to the third quarter of 2021. Similar to last quarter, average daily rates in our same-property portfolio moderated in the third quarter, declining 0.6% compared to the third quarter of 2022, which has grown substantially over the third quarter of 2021. As expected, rate declines in some of our leisure-oriented hotels in the third quarter exceeded that of our same-property portfolio, compared to the third quarter of 2022. However, rates at these properties remain well above 2019 levels. For instance, rates in Key West, Napa, and Savannah are approximately 26%, 21%, and 12% above third quarter 2019 levels, respectively. Same-property occupancy for the third quarter improved by 70 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2022. Most of this improvement was driven by higher mid-week occupancies, as weekend occupancies declined slightly compared to last year. Reflecting our commentary regarding further opportunity for recovery, particularly in the corporate segment for the 29 hotels we owned at the time and excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, Monday to Thursdays are still down approximately 16% in occupancy from 2019 levels, while weekend occupancy is down approximately 11%. We continue to see rate growth due to compression, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, but are seeing some softening in rates on weekends. Business from the largest corporate accounts across our portfolio continues to improve year to date, and we estimate that room night demand is still down about 20% from 2019 levels. We continue to benefit from healthy group momentum with pace being driven by increases in both room nights and rate. Including our two most recent acquisitions, Hyatt Regency Portland and W Nashville but excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, group room revenue on the books for full year 2023 is currently about 16% ahead of last year, and about 6% ahead of 2022 levels for the fourth quarter of 2023. We believe there is continued opportunity for further recovery and growth in group business, even as we close the gap to 2019. Our current group room revenue on the books for 2023 is about 3% behind 2019 levels, excluding Scottsdale in both periods. Now, switching gears to expenses and profit. Third quarter same-property hotel EBITDA was $51.2 million, a decrease of 7.9% on a total revenue decrease of 0.8%, compared to the third quarter 2022, resulting in 169 basis points of margin erosion. Excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, the margin declined by just 60 basis points. This decrease in hotel EBITDA margin in the third quarter was consistent with our expectations. The margin declines were moderate in the second half of the year as we lap the lower staffing levels that were in place last year. Although rooms and food and beverage department margins decreased in the quarter compared to the third quarter of 2022, salaries and benefits stabilized and over time were significantly reduced, as staffing levels normalized. A&G expenses grew a little over 1% compared to the prior year, and property operations and maintenance expenses declined by approximately 1%. Utility expenses grew by approximately 6%. Now turning to CapEx. During the third quarter, we invested $35.5 million in portfolio improvements, bringing our year-to-date total to $69.5 million. In the third quarter, we continued guestroom renovations at the Grand Bohemian Hotel Orlando, which is expected to be completed in the next few days. Earlier in the year, we completed the comprehensive renovation of all public spaces, including meeting space, lobby, restaurant, bar, Starbucks, and the creation of a rooftop bar. At the Park Hyatt Aviara Resort, we completed a significant upgrade to the resort's fitness amenities and spa, which reopened as a branded Miraval Life in Balance Spa. Finally, at Kimpton Hotel Monaco Salt Lake City, we completed the comprehensive renovation of meeting space, lobby, restaurant, bar and guestrooms in the third quarter. The $110 million transformer renovation and upbranding of the 491-room Hyatt Regency Scottsdale is underway and proceeding as planned. Major components, including the meeting space expansion, pool complex, and guestrooms, have all been contracted in line with budget levels, and all phases remain on track to be completed by the end of 2024. Our expectation for total capital expenditures this year is now at a range of $120 million and $130 million, a reduction of $5 million in the midpoint due to the timing of deposits and cash flow. We are excited about the projects we have underway and look forward to their completion. With that, I will turn the call over to Atish.

Thanks, Barry. I will provide an update on our balance sheet and discuss our guidance. First on our balance sheet. At the end of the third quarter, our leverage ratio was about 4.7 times net debt to EBITDA. All of our debt is at fixed rates. The quarter-end interest rate was about 5.5%. Our next debt maturity is in August 2025. We continue to have a fully undrawn line of credit that, together with our unrestricted cash, reflected approximately $670 million of liquidity at quarter end. During the quarter, we bought back just over $5 million of our senior notes in the open market at roughly 1% below par. In addition, we continue to repurchase shares. Year-to-date through today, we've repurchased 6.5% of our outstanding shares at an average price of $12.72 per share. We have approximately $73 million remaining on our Board repurchase authorization. We paid a $0.10 per share dividend in the third quarter on an annualized basis that reflects a yield of approximately 3.4% on our stock. It also reflects a payout ratio under 40% projected FAD, based on the midpoint of our FFO guidance. Second, I will turn to our full-year outlook. We have lowered our expectation for RevPAR growth by 50 basis points to 4.5% at the midpoint. While third-quarter results were in line with prior guidance, our revised outlook reflects tempered fourth quarter expectations. This reflects lower weekend demand than had been previously expected, as leisure demand continues to normalize. It also reflects the continued improvement in business transient demand, albeit at a slightly more gradual pace than we had previously estimated. On a preliminary basis, we estimate October RevPAR declined 2.3% versus last year. Excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, October RevPAR increased about 2.4% versus last year. The impact of the Scottsdale renovation on RevPAR was about 100 basis points higher in October than it was in the third quarter. As a reminder, October has historically been the most significant month of the quarter with nearly 50% of our fourth-quarter EBITDA earned during the month. As we look ahead to November and December, our pace is significantly impacted by the Scottsdale renovation. Transient room revenue pace for the two months is 2% lower than last year. Excluding Scottsdale, transient pace is up 6%. As at the end of the third quarter, group room revenue pace for November and December was down about 4% versus last year. Again, excluding Scottsdale, the pace for the two months was up 2%. As for the hotel's EBITDA margins, we expect them to decline approximately 200 basis points during the fourth quarter, compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Excluding Scottsdale, fourth-quarter margins are expected to be flat to slightly positive. As to adjusted EBITDAre, we have lowered the midpoint by $4 million to $250 million. Our adjusted FFO guidance of $167 million at the midpoint is $1 million lower than prior guidance. This is a result of the $4 million in lower expected adjusted EBITDAre, offset by slightly lower interest expense and slightly lower income tax expense. Our G&A expense guidance is unchanged. On a per-share basis, we expect an FFO of $1.51 at the midpoint, which is $0.005 higher than prior guidance due to buybacks since we last reported. Looking ahead to 2024, while it's still early, there are a few data points that we can offer for now. First, on our group outlook, as of the end of the third quarter, we had about 45% of our group revenues for next year already definite. That group room revenues for 2024 is pacing flat. Excluding Scottsdale, the group pace is up about 10% for next year. Second, on corporate rates. We expect corporate negotiated rates for 2024 to be in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range. That's based on preliminary feedback from our operators. Third, on new supply growth. Across our market tracks, we expect supply growth to be up just over 1% next year, based on our weighted geographic room mix. This is considerably lower than annual supply growth has been over the last few years. While we will not yet be providing 2024 guidance and will do so when we report the fourth quarter, we are providing an estimate of the impact of disruption from our Scottsdale project. We expect the impact to EBITDA to be about $12 million over the course of next year. By quarter, our estimate is $3 million in the first quarter, $5 million in the second quarter, $3 million in the third quarter, and $1 million in the fourth quarter. By way of reminder, in 2023, the EBITDA impact due to the Scottsdale renovation is expected to be about $14 million. By quarter, that was approximately $2 million in the second quarter, $5 million in the third quarter. We estimate it will be approximately $7 million in the fourth quarter, which we also expect to be the peak absolute level of quarterly EBITDA displacement from the renovation. So as we look at next year, we will see the largest year-over-year net renovation impact in the first half. By the time we get to the second half, we will be lapping this year's heavy disruption. Despite less renovation disruption next year, we expect EBITDA from the Scottsdale property to be lower than in 2023. This is because leisure and group demand were particularly strong during the first four months of this year, and the property also benefited from the Super Bowl this year. We expect to undertake some other capital expenditure projects next year that are likely to negatively impact EBITDA, similar to what we've done in any given year. While it's a bit premature to pinpoint that impact as we have typically done, we will do so when we next report. I'd like to conclude by mentioning that the Company continues to be well-positioned with no near-term debt maturities, a high-quality portfolio, and strong relationships with industry participants, including brand managers, lenders, and others. We're executing and on track on several potential high-value projects that we expect to continue to drive strong growth in the years ahead. With that, we'll turn the call back over to Charlie for our Q&A session.

Our first question comes from Bryan Maher of B. Riley Securities. Bryan, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thank you. And good morning. Just one area I wanted to address, and I don't think you really talked about it much in your prepared comments was, you have a pretty formidable liquidity position between your cash and your availability. We have a marketplace, where hotels are starting to be handed back to lenders. I suspect we haven't seen the bottom of that, but I would welcome some commentary there. Marcel, how are you thinking about allocating your capital between future buybacks you've been pretty aggressive this year and acquisition opportunities over the next 12 to 18 months?

Yes, good morning, Brian. In response to your question, we still find ourselves in a situation where we aren’t seeing the level of acquisition opportunities that we had anticipated going forward. Considering our current stock price, we believe there is substantial value, especially when compared to our assessment of the external value of these properties. It's crucial for us to strike a balance by maintaining sufficient liquidity to seize acquisition opportunities when they become more appealing. We definitely see significant value in our stock at this time. Additionally, we have several capital expenditure needs, primarily focused on Scottsdale, along with other projects over the next few years, which also necessitates maintaining enough liquidity for these high-potential initiatives, alongside our buybacks and keeping reserves for future acquisition prospects.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bill Crow of Raymond James. Bill, your line is open. Please proceed.

Great. Good morning.

Good morning.

Curious if you take out Scottsdale, good morning. If you take out Scottsdale from the equation, how much does RevPAR have to grow next year in order to have flat EBITDA?

Well, we're still in the budgeting process. But if you take Scottsdale out of the equation, I think it's probably in the low to mid-single-digit range to get to flat EBITDA, just based on initial indications on expense pressures on the rest. Yes. I think Barry did obviously get into a little bit of what we're seeing, just with the overall expenses and growth in expenses, and we are certainly at a much closer level to full staffing than where we were in previous quarters. That’s why you're seeing the moderation that we saw in the third quarter too compared to the margin contraction that we had in the second quarter of this year. So, if you think about the fact that we had 40% RevPAR growth in the third quarter of this year, excluding Scottsdale, and our margins contracted by 60 basis points, I think that leads you to kind of that range that Atish is talking about.

Thank you for your insight. I have a follow-up question regarding the booking activity. It appears that there was a slowdown in bookings around the middle of the year or perhaps even a bit earlier. I'm curious about your observations regarding short-term bookings during this period.

Yes, I mean, I think if you think about fourth-quarter pace with short-term bookings, it is still very much a reality, and I think we're seeing that extend into 2024 as well, where all Atish talked about overall pace for '24 and where we are, it's pretty heavily front-loaded, which we take as a good sign that business is responding quickly. Now, we are starting to see properties push to try to put more business on the books in the last half of 2024, which quite frankly is pretty easy because in most of our large-scale group properties, the first two quarters are in really good shape.

Okay, thanks. That's it from me.

Our next question comes from Dori Kesten of Wells Fargo. Dori, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Thanks, good morning.

Good morning.

With some time now under the new GM sell at the W Nashville, have you seen a notable shift in operations that you were looking forward to put the hotel kind of back on the trajectory to stabilized yields?

Yes, I would definitely say so. We had an excellent third quarter regarding room operations, both in terms of RevPAR and in comparison to our competitors. Much of this success has stemmed from a fresh approach to optimizing operations at the property. The significant group business we saw contributed greatly to Q3, and we anticipate it becoming an even larger part of our operations as we move forward. The banking contribution was also strong. However, there is still work to be done, particularly with the various food and beverage outlets at the hotel. We're revisiting our marketing strategies, including digital and social media plans for each outlet, to enhance performance. We're working on some initiatives that we aren't ready to disclose yet, but we believe they will help improve the property and reduce the gap we currently face with our food and beverage outlets.

Okay. I think last quarter you said maybe the hotel is about a year behind, where you thought it might take a year longer to stabilize. Is that still fair?

Yes, I think that's still fair. I would reiterate what Barry said. We obviously are really kind of undertaking this path of kind of revamping some of the F&B operations here. It's still relatively early days with the new GM in place. I believe you've seen the property yourself, and you know what outstanding facilities that we have there. We are still very confident in the long-term prospects for the hotel. Clearly, it has taken a little bit longer to stabilize, but it's a great market, a great asset, and we're still very excited about the growth prospects there.

Yes, okay. Thank you.

Our next question comes from David Katz of Jefferies. David, your line is open. Please proceed.

Hi. Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I want to go back to some of your prepared remarks. We appreciate the detail around Scottsdale and how that rolls into 2024. I think you did suggest that there could or would be more projects in 2024. What I'm trying to envision is whether they could have the same kind of impact to Scottsdale, or we start to get into more of a cash flow pivot or harvest mode?

Yes, thanks, David. That comment was really meant to indicate that there are, in any given year, some projects that we do. We don't expect to do anything next year of the magnitude of the project in Scottsdale. While I was giving the displacement number for Scottsdale, I'm not really rolling up any in all displacement for next year, just given that we're still in the budgeting process and capital planning mode. That's really what that comment was meant to indicate that there, in any given year, we have some other smaller projects. We expect to have several other projects next year that we'll work on as well.

So should I think about those magnitude-wise, as something order of magnitude similar to what you did this year, excluding Scottsdale? Is that a fair way to think about the outlook?

Yes, I think that's about right. We don't have a specific number for those projects, and the timing will obviously vary compared to the projects we completed this year, specifically Grand Bohemian Orlando and the project at Salt Lake. However, it seems like a reasonable estimate to consider.

Yes, I would like to add that there might be some additional disruption beyond the $12 million you mentioned for Scottsdale. This year's total disruption is about $18 million, with $14 million attributed to Scottsdale. This means approximately $4 million comes from other projects this year. We are not able to specify the details of these additional projects yet, as we are still in the process of finalizing the capital budget for next year and assessing what we might want to pursue. We will provide more detailed information during our next earnings call at the beginning of next year.

Got it. If I could sneak one more quick one, I would appreciate it. One of the other public REITs announced a transaction recently, and I'm just wondering whether you think the capital markets landscape is better, worse, or the same, and whether there's a message in that or not?

You know, from a capital markets perspective, maybe just, I don't know if you want to be more specific about what you're asking about exactly what transaction. Are you talking about company-wide transactions or you're talking about a specific individual asset acquisition?

Well, I mean, what prompted the question was the Boston asset that Sunstone sold and whether there is a message in that about receptivity or underwriting conviction and the receptivity of the capital markets? That's what I was getting at.

Thank you for the clarification, David. From our viewpoint, there are still transactions being completed, and there remains interest in well-located and quality assets. Our ongoing transactions related to research and development, as well as our pipeline, are likely to be positively regarded when evaluating hotel assets. We are all aware that interest rates have notably increased. You may have noticed some recent refinancings with mortgage rates in the high 8% range. I believe people are assessing debt and considering refinancing in the future at hopefully more favorable levels, which gives them confidence in their long-term returns. However, the market is still not very robust for larger asset acquisitions, both in terms of the number of available assets and completed transactions. We continue to see more activity in smaller deals compared to larger ones. Nonetheless, there is definitely interest in the lodging sector. From our perspective, we see a promising path for growth in a portfolio like ours.

Thank you. I appreciate it.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Bellisario of Baird. Michael, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Good morning.

Just a couple of quick clarifications. First, on the fourth quarter outlook. It sounds like the top line is expected to decrease slightly. Is that correct? Or should we expect any additional expense challenges that you are incorporating into the updated full-year guidance?

No. Mike, I think you got it right. It's really RevPAR-driven. I mean if you look at everything else, how we're thinking about the renovation impact or the expense backdrop that hasn't changed. It's really top line-driven and primarily associated with the two things that I mentioned. The demand, a little bit lighter on weekends, and then BT ramping but ramping up slightly slower.

Got it. Just wanted to clarify that. And then just on the 24 numbers for Scottsdale, just to clarify there, if it's net positive for renovations. But you expect the year-over-year to be down. Is that sort of at least net three negative sort of like-for-like? Is that all in the first quarter then? Or is that going to be spread out more between 1Q and 2Q?

Yes, it's mostly first quarter. That's where we saw kind of more of a strength. At least relative to this year, there's a tad bit in the first month of the second quarter, but it's mostly first quarter.

Got it, okay. And then just last one for me, probably for Barry here. I think you mentioned meaningful improvement in group performance, group trends in a few of your key market. Any incremental color you could provide there on maybe what's driving that optimism in that upside?

Yes, I believe it's partly a return to normal group patterns, where we are observing a more diverse mix of corporate groups, association groups, and SMERF groups, distributed throughout the year in more traditional ways. The significant surge in corporate demand has lessened. While this is a highly profitable segment, we are seeing a shift back to more typical group sizes we've previously discussed. There was considerable pent-up demand from corporate clients, and associations usually book their events well in advance. Now, we are receiving bookings from association groups earlier than before, and we're also getting high-quality summer business at many resorts, including sports and standalone groups. Overall, there is a more balanced mix of groups throughout the year, which is positively affecting our occupancy rates and room prices.

Helpful. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Aryeh Klein of BMO Capital Markets. Aryeh, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thanks. And good morning. Maybe just on the balance sheet with some higher near-term CapEx and EBITDA next year impacted by renovations, how high are you comfortable with leverage getting to? Or maybe just where do you think it'll kind of peak out at?

Yes. Thanks, Aryeh. Well, pre-COVID we had been running the Company from kind of this range of low three times to low four times, and that continues to be our target range and the optimal level for us, given the asset profile. That said, there is a lot of recovery potential here over the next couple of years, and we pointed to some of that in prior conversations, as well as the materials we posted. We do expect there'll be a natural delevering for the Company, as we go forward here over the next couple of years, given the EBITDA growth, particularly from some of the newer investments, as well as the CapEx. As we think about next year, I think as we talked about earlier, it is a little bit of a balance here, given the level of CapEx we have with other uses that we deem attractive, including buybacks. I think where we are leverage-wise, roughly speaking, is about right. We're north of that low four times higher end that I had mentioned. Again, as we look further out, we think we can comfortably get back into that range. I would say we're fine kind of in the high-fours, maybe even a little bit higher, just given the recovery potential of the business.

Appreciate that. And then on the Hyatt and Scottsdale, curious about how you think about maybe starting to hold down or if you would consider that in an effort to accelerate the renovation timelines? If not, I guess why not?

We thoroughly assessed the situation to determine the best approach. If any action was to be taken, it would have been over the past few months rather than in the future. We analyzed closely to ensure that we wouldn't jeopardize our financial position in the short term or hinder the ramp-up process if we needed to reopen the hotel. The positive aspect of this hotel is that it has distinct areas where we can manage renovations effectively, allowing us to work on one side while keeping the other side operational. Currently, we are focused on completing the first half of the guestroom renovations so that the second half can be available when the pool complex is finished early next year. We have a strategic plan in place for staging the entire renovation to minimize disruption and expedite the process as much as possible. We believe that by not completely closing the resort, we are optimizing cash flow without significantly delaying the completion of the renovations.

Thanks. And if I can squeeze one more in. Just looking at San Jose, you know, it's obviously a challenged market, but I suppose that occupancy dipped a little bit from last year with tech companies returning to office. What you’re seeing in that market and how do you think that kind of evolves into 2024?

Yes, I think one of the challenges there is that while there has been more return of tech to office, there have also been significant layoffs. So that has masked a little bit of the opportunity to grow occupancy in that market. It's also true that when people were not in the office, we attracted business from people who were visiting the office, meaning employees who were paying their own way to come into the market to be in the office a couple of days a week. That business has changed a lot. Tech layoffs and requirements to be in the office more days have forced people to be more local to the office. The Q3 of this year also had a particularly good setup for us in that hotel on the group side, as we continue to work with the adjacent convention center on driving more business into that center, but we had always known that that would be soft. Those are kind of the two or three components that led to some softening there. The flip side is we have seen rate improvement there through the period as well, in part because, it's not the ideal outcome, but some of that's because we didn't have some of the lower-rated group business that we ordinarily would have in that hotel during Q3.

I appreciate the color.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Austin Wurschmidt of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Austin, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Thanks. And good morning, everybody. I'm curious if the recent softness in leisure demand that you highlighted kind of changed your outlook for this segment at all heading into 2024? Were there any specific markets or hotels across the portfolio that you'd highlight?

Yes, I mentioned earlier that we're observing a slight decline in both occupancy and rate in the key leisure markets we've discussed for quite some time, specifically Napa, Savannah, and Key West. In Key West, we experienced some advantages from renovations completed last year, which resulted in growth in Q3. As I noted before, the rates in these markets remain very strong and we have not encountered significant rate pressure. Each of these markets has its own specific dynamics that would require more detailed discussion. Napa has certainly felt the effects of the tech slowdown and layoffs on the West Coast. However, we are pleased with our performance in Savannah, even with a decline compared to last year. Charleston has also performed well in Q3. Key West continues to be a strong market for investments. Looking ahead to 2024, we do not anticipate anything resembling the declines we've seen this year. In fact, we are optimistic that occupancy levels will return to more normal rates, although significantly higher than in 2019.

From our perspective, we've been in these leisure markets for a long time. We didn't just jump into these markets in the last couple of years, right? So we're in some really long-term, proven high-demand leisure markets, where we feel very good about the long-term prospects on where those will stabilize and normalize. It’s important to note that we have seen significant rate growth in those markets, even still compared to 2019. So it doesn't really change our outlook, as it relates to those particular markets. I think what we're seeing is really what we kind of expected, which is a softening of the overall domestic leisure trends. As Atish pointed out, that is a little bit more significant in the fourth quarter than we initially anticipated, but it's also not quite being made up by business trends accelerating as much as we were projecting a quarter ago. It's really kind of the balance of those two things. However, we feel good about our position in leisure markets and confident in the strength we continue to see in group demand, which aligns with our expectations for growth over the next couple of years. Our assets are more heavily dependent on that type of business, which is being evidenced by the additional ballroom at Grand Cypress, where we're expecting good growth over what we saw in '17, '18, and '19. The developments in Scottsdale are also aimed at making our hotels extremely attractive for all three demand segments, and we expect increased group business to be very important for the long-term success of those properties.

Yes, that's a smooth transition into my next question. Regarding the corporate segment, you mentioned the 16% difference in occupancy compared to 2019 levels. How does that compare to the start of this year? Are there any specific markets where corporate demand has fallen short of your expectations for the fourth quarter or your initial budgets? Are there particular hotels or markets, or is it a broader trend?

Well, I think part of it, it's twofold from my perspective, and Barry can jump in as well. Orlando, for example, is a component of that. Grand Bohemian Orlando, which is really a business transient hotel, for the most part, has some group elements to it, not significantly driven by leisure. That renovation being extended out a little bit has certainly had an impact in the beginning of the fourth quarter. Some of our more business-oriented hotels are some of the ones that have undergone renovations this year too. We have seen an improvement in corporate transient as the year has progressed, where you still need additional growth, especially on the Monday nights and the Thursday nights. Tuesday and Wednesday nights are performing very well. The real occupancy delta is driven by what you're seeing on Monday and Thursday nights, which are really dependent on return-to-office activities and more travel by larger corporate accounts that need to occur on those nights. We haven't quite seen that yet.

That's helpful. That's all from me. Thank you.

Thank you. Our final question comes from Luis Ricardo Chinchilla of Deutsche Bank. Luis, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. Thank you so much for taking my question. I was wondering if you could comment on your refinancing strategy, acknowledging that you guys have, you know, a pretty good rate, it's fixed, and that, effectively, you have plenty of liquidity? Any insight on what you are thinking, and perhaps if you would be more inclined to be more conservative in leverage? So although I know this was already asked, if you could provide like a range where you feel comfortable in a deteriorating fundamental environment.

Thank you for your question. Regarding the first part about refinancing, our next maturity is on August 25, which is a ways off. There are potentially many options we can explore for that debt maturity, depending on what pricing is available and attractive. The high-yield market remains an avenue for us, and we have a solid track record there. We also have other financing tools at our disposal. It’s a bit early to finalize a specific strategy, but we are confident in the options available to the company. As we approach the maturity date, we'll make more informed decisions, but it is still nearly two years away. Concerning your second question about our balance sheet and leverage, the leverage range we discussed previously, from low three to low four times, still seems appropriate. Looking at the business over the next few years, we see significant upside, which we've detailed in terms of potential EBITDA levels. That’s our main focus when considering leverage levels for the company. While we haven't provided guidance for next year yet, we're keeping the bigger picture in mind regarding our desired leverage levels in relation to the growth prospects and stabilized EBITDA we anticipate from our projects and investments. This overview reflects our thinking about leverage in the context of our planned capital expenditures and share repurchases, which we intend to remain active in.

Thank you so much for your answer.

Thank you. We have no further questions registered at this point. So I'll turn the call back over to our Chair and CEO, Marcel Verbaas, for any closing remarks.

Thank you, Charlie. Thanks for joining us this morning. We'll see many of you over the next few weeks. For those of you we won't see, I wish you a good rest of the year and a good holiday season. We look forward to connecting with everyone at the beginning of next year again.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.