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Earnings call · FY2025 Q4
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Vanessa and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Agnico Eagle Minds Limited Q4 2025 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then the number two. Thank you. Mr. Ammar Al-Jundi, you may begin your conference.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our Agnico Eagle fourth quarter and year-end 2025 conference call. I'd like to remind everyone that we'll be making a number of forward-looking statements, so please keep that in mind and refer to the disclaimers at the beginning of this presentation. This morning, we're pleased to announce another strong quarter, capping off a remarkable year. In 2025, as gold prices hit new highs throughout the year, Agnico Eagle delivered on our production targets, we delivered on our costs, and we did it responsibly and reliably. While the price of gold went up $1,700 year over year, our cash costs went up $76 per ounce. This means we delivered over 95% of this gold price increase to the benefit of our shareholders, delivering on our core mandate of providing gold upside leverage to our owners. In 2025, we repaid almost $1 billion in debt, we built up almost $3 billion in cash, and we returned over $1.4 billion directly to our owners through dividends and share buybacks. all while continuing to invest heavily in our future through the largest exploration budget we've ever had and through continued strong investment into our five key growth projects. In an exceptional year for gold, Agneco Eagle delivered on our commitments to our owners, to our employees, and to our communities. This strong momentum continues into 2026 and beyond, supported by a stable annual production profile of between 3.3 to 3.5 million ounces over the next three years at peer-leading costs, while reporting record reserves, record resources, record inferred ounces, and an increase to our dividend. While 2026 cash costs are forecast to be up a little over $100 per ounce compared to last year, more than half of that increase is from the assumption of higher royalties and a stronger Canadian dollar. Excluding those assumptions, our cost increase is about 4% to 5%. This would be at or slightly below the inflation we saw in the industry last year. So, good cost control on the factors that we can influence. Our reserves are at a record 55.4 million ounces, up 2%. Our resources are at a record 47.1 million ounces, up almost 10%, and our inferred ounces are at a record 41.8 million ounces, up a remarkable 15.5%. 2025 was an exceptional year and our near-term prospects look even better but the real story this morning the real excitement is not in looking back or even the next three years the real excitement this morning is that Agneco Eagle is in the best position we've ever been in and we're already aggressively advancing our next phase of growth and growth per share This morning, we want to focus on our plan to increase production by up to 20% to 30% over the next decade, with a path to over 4 million ounces of annual production by the early 2030s. This growth is from the highest quality projects in the best jurisdictions in the world. This growth is from projects we already own in jurisdictions we know well, with existing teams, and, in most cases, leveraging off existing infrastructure. This is important because our job isn't simply to grow, but rather it's to grow value for our owners on a per-share basis. And in our industry, growing in stable jurisdictions, leveraging existing infrastructure not only delivers to our owners the best return on capital, but also the best risk-adjusted return on capital. Next slide, please. These assets were, over the past few years, we've been investing substantial time, energy and money, and where our investments are accelerating, that we're at a point where we see a step change in production per share starting in 2030, and we're eager to share our progress with you this morning. At Detour Lake, the largest gold mine in Canada, where we're executing a plan with the potential to deliver an additional 300,000 to 350,000 ounces per year through the development of an underground mine. We've added 4.3 million ounces of resources during the past year in the high-grade mineralized corridor that's amenable to this underground mining. And we're tripling our investment from $100 million to $300 million as we accelerate our work towards a go-ahead decision mid-2027 and potential to start underground production as early as 2028. At the Canadian Malarda Complex, the second largest gold mine in Canada, where we see an opportunity to add a remarkable 400,000 to 500,000 ounces per year through our fill-the-mill strategy, we've added 9 million ounces of reserves since our last technical update. We're ahead of schedule on the ramp, expected first production from East Gouldie this quarter, and ahead of schedule on the first shaft, expected to commission in 2027. We're making excellent progress evaluating opportunities to fill the mill further via the Marban open pit, via Wasamac underground, and via a second shaft. All three with targeted first production by 2033. At Upper Beaver, which is expected to produce over 200,000 ounces per year, we're ahead of schedule again on both the ramp and the shaft. We're increasing our investment from $200 million to $300 million to accelerate the development of the project with the goal of bringing production forward to 2030. At Hope Bay, where we're working on a study that supports a 400,000 to 425,000 ounce per year operation, we saw a 46% increase in inferred mineral resources, primarily from patch 7. We expect a study update and potentially a project approval as soon as May of this year. We continue to make good progress at San Nicolas and hope to have permits to move forward shortly. These projects alone have the potential to add 1.3 to 1.5 million ounces of highly profitable annual production, and in each case, we've made excellent progress and we're moving forward aggressively. With that introduction, I will now turn over the presentation to our CFO, Jamie Porter, to review our third quarter and full year
results. Thank you, Omar. As Omar mentioned, we delivered record financial results in 2025, driven by a strong operating performance, disciplined cost control, and a supportive gold price environment. We finished the year with a solid fourth quarter, producing approximately 841,000 ounces of gold at total cash costs of $1,089 and all in sustaining costs of $1,517 per ounce. Costs increased quarter over quarter, primarily due to higher royalties, lower production volumes, and higher costs at our Meadow Bank mine associated with extending mine life. Despite higher costs, we delivered a number of financial records in the fourth quarter, including record-adjusted earnings of approximately $1.4 billion, or $2.70 per share, and record-free cash flow of over $1.3 billion, or $2.62 per share. For the full 2025 year, we exceeded the midpoint of our guidance, with gold production of 3.45 million ounces, underscoring our consistent track record of execution. Total cash costs and all-in-sustaining costs were $979 and $1,339 per ounce, respectively. Both were slightly above the top end of our guidance ranges due to higher royalty costs, driven by an average realized gold price of $3,454, nearly $1,000 per ounce above our guidance assumption. Higher royalties, our total cash costs would have been $937 per ounce, $42 per ounce lower and below the midpoint of our guidance again reflecting strong cost discipline and execution by our operating teams with this performance we generated strong leverage to the gold price capturing approximately 95% of the increase in gold price and margin expansion and delivered record financial results across the board including approximately 4.4 billion in free cash flow for the year we turn to the next slide our record financial performance and continued margin expansion benefited our shareholders both through increased direct returns and through a materially stronger balance sheet. In 2025, we repaid approximately $950 million of debt and increased our cash position by $1.9 billion, ending the year with $2.9 billion of cash. We delivered record shareholder returns through share buybacks in dividends, totaling approximately $500 million in the fourth quarter and a record $1.4 billion for the full 2025 year. We are in the strongest financial position in our company's history, and we believe we are exceptionally well positioned in the current gold price environment. We expect to continue to increase shareholder returns. We increase the quarterly dividend by 12.5% to $0.45 per share, and at current gold prices, we expect to be more active on share buybacks. To support this, we intend to renew our normal course issuer bid in May and increase the purchase limit up to $2 billion. In 2025, we returned approximately one-third of our free cash flow to shareholders, and we see the potential to increase that to 40 percent or higher this year with flexibility depending on the gold price and the needs of the business. At the same time, we remain focused on further strengthening our financial position. As a reminder, given our strong profitability, we are required to pay a significantly higher cash tax liability related to the 2025 fiscal year this February, which is approximately $1.3 billion, and we have the cash on hand to fund that obligation. Lastly and importantly, we continue to deploy capital in a disciplined manner to advance our highest return organic growth opportunities. While current gold prices are driving strong cash flow generation, we remain committed to disciplined capital allocation with a continued focus on enhancing long-term shareholder value we move on to the next slide we've updated our guidance and continue to expect stable production levels over the next three years we're especially proud of the work our team has done as we were able to provide an improved outlook for 2028 relative to consensus supported by a life of mine extension at meadowbank and higher levels of production from canadian malaric fosterville and kitala We turn to cost. The midpoint of our 2026 guidance ranges are $1,070 per ounce for cash costs and $1,475 per ounce for all unsustaining costs. Approximately 60% of the increase in cash costs relative to 2025 reflects higher royalties, driven by a higher budgeted gold price of $4,500 per ounce and the impact of a stronger Canadian dollar. The remaining 40% of the increase reflects expected inflation of approximately 4% to 5% and the impact of lower-grade mining sequences. Beginning in 2026, to enhance consistency and comparability across our Nunavut operations, we have adjusted the calculation of total cash costs and all-in-sustaining costs to exclude certain payments at Amaruk that are made to the NTI, an organization representing the Inuit of Nunavut. These payments have similar characteristics to mining duties we pay under the Nunavut Mining Regulations, which are already excluded from the calculation of total cash costs and all-in-sustaining costs remain hundreds of dollars per ounce below those of our peers, reflecting the quality of our asset base and continued cost discipline. expenditure guidance that reflects our focus on reinvesting in the business to lay the groundwork for our next phase of growth. We are accelerating capital at Detour Underground and Upper Beaver through mid-2027. In addition, Hope Bay represents an attractive growth opportunity. If approved, we expect additional capital of approximately $300 million beyond what is currently reflected in the guidance for 2026. Dom, Natasha, and Guy will provide further detail on these projects later on the call. Together, these projects represent compelling opportunities that deliver strong returns with significant upside and the potential to create value for decades to come. Overall, our updated guidance reflects a consistent and reliable business at peer-leading costs as we continue to advance our pipeline of growth projects and remain well-positioned to deliver meaningful leverage to higher gold prices. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dom. Thank you, Jimmy. Good
morning everyone. In my part, I will cover the operation and key project highlights for Quebec, Nunavut and Finland. Q4 has been a very stable, again consistent quarter that contributed to a strong 2025 on production and cost. Thanks to all employees and management team for their commitment, engagement, but specifically about the collaboration to keep improving the business. And a good example of that collaboration is about how we are or around how we are better usage we do a better usage of our data it is highlighted here in the outlook at around the last six months they've worked on telemetry to analyze the data the behavior of the equipment and the behavior of the operator to better understand how and they've been involved to improve the number of hours on the transmissions and motors from 3,000 hours up to now 6,000, 7,000, 8,000 hours. This has been done by building an in-house expertise on analyzing data and finding trending and then getting back to the operator, getting back to the trainers to go in that direction. So this is a very good way to be more efficient. And this is also something which is transferable to other operations and other projects that we're currently building. So through that collaboration, now we're transferring that to Goldex, and then it's going to go also to other divisions. Same thing with the fleet management system. We're piloting right now at LZ-5. So specifically, we're going to have a dispatch system into our ramps. For you that have already been underground into a ramp, you could see how it could be a mess sometime. So we're now bringing that to another level. And all that knowledge is going to be rolled out also at Odyssey say in Amarok later this year. Another good news on the outlook is Middle Bank mine life extending up to 2030. Middle Bank have played a very important role in smoothing our 2026-2030 production profile by bringing those additional ounces. Thanks to the Middle Bank team for this key contribution. Those answers are, yes, higher risk. No, higher risk. I mean higher costs, but low risk into, let's say, current infrastructure. So that's very positive. And thanks for the team also to keep looking for more options to potentially extend it beyond 2030. This is still under review. Next, Mallartic Fill the Mill strategy. So, back in 2023, when we released our first or updated study on that, we had 9 million The mine life was going to 2042. With the good drilling done, we've been able to potentially extend by double that mine So, with the first shaft, which is illustrated on the first line here at the bottom in the ramp, we're still very in good position to deliver that on time, on budget. but since we are adding more answers that could bring us up to 2056 between 2057 so this is why the second line is now into play how could we bring those answers faster into the time so the team is working on that to potentially have a second shaft in operation in 2033 that's a one part of the vision of the 1 million answers again back to the 2023 we at the time set a vision okay how could we bring that to one million ounces using just one-third of the meal? The first second shaft is a good example, and as well, in the last three years, we've worked to bring also more band and wasamac. Two satellites, our body, that's going to be transported to Malartic, and that also could bring more ounces. If you add, you do the sum of that, we're at the one million ounces. We are progressing well into the studies, and we're targeting to give you more information on that, potentially end of Q3, early Q4 next year, that you're going to be able to have a better view on all of them. So very positive news. The fill the mill strategy is taking place and there's still room also at the mill. If you do the sum all of that, you're going to be at 46,000 ounces per year. So there's still over 25 drills running into the region around Canadian Malartic and who knows where we're going to be in three years from now. Next slide. At Hope Bay back in 2021, after the acquisition of TMAC, we quickly set a target to bring it over, let's say, north of 350,000 ounces per year to make that project economical. So the good news is we are reaching that now, and we are looking to release and to give you more information about that in May this year. The study looks like 6,000 tons per day, north of 400,000 answers per year, so we're reaching our target. We're going to be able to start to, let's say, first kickoff of 10-year life of mine. This is what we're looking for. And if this goes forward, we're going to be able to spend, we're well prepared to spend an additional $300 million on top of what we're guiding right now. So it's very positive. and the study is built on strong foundations using Melodyne and Amarok mine benchmark so we know what's going to be the cost we know how we're going to operate that it is backed with historical background historical information on the OPEX, on the CAPEX how it's going to cost to build secondly we are over we're going to be over 50% of engineering that was a clear target we're reaching that and on the execution it's not our first barbecue in Nunavut So we know how to do it, it's going to be the same team using the same contractors or partially same contractors, and we know it's going to be a success. On that, I will pass the mic to my great teammate, Natasha.
Thanks, Dom, and good morning, everyone. I'll cover the operational highlights for Ontario, Australia, and Mexico. The regions delivered full-year production as planned and demonstrated balanced execution across the portfolio, and at the same time, they continue to advance initiatives to further optimize our performance. At MACASA, we're very proud of the team as we've achieved record gold production. And in 2025, anticipating declining reserve grades in the coming years, the team proactively initiated work to increase mill throughput. And now in 2026, we continue to advance these initiatives with a target to increase throughput to 2150 tons per day by the end of 2027. At Fosterville, we're taking a very similar approach to managing declining reserve grades. We now have a plan to increase the milling and mining rates to 3,300 tons per day by 2028 through various optimization efforts. And this plan is expected to support annual production of somewhere around 160 to 190,000 ounces starting in 2028 and into the early 2030. And we continue to see significant upside at Fosterville through exploration to support mine life extension. At Detour, despite the pit delays this year, the mill achieved record annual throughput of 28 million tons. That represents a 35% increase since the mill expansion began six years ago. I just want to take a moment to commend the site team for this achievement. It was a lot of hard work to get there, so I just wanted to say a quick thank you to The team is now focused on further optimization with a revised timeline to support a more measured ramp up to 29 million tons, giving the team a little bit more flexibility and to optimize processes and embed sustainable operating practices. Now moving to the next slide, the mill optimization that I just spoke about to 29 million tons is part of DTOR's next phase of growth, which also includes the development of an underground operation. We're advancing on both fronts, and we have a clear line of sight to achieving 1 million ounces of annual gold production in the early 2030s. In 2025, we made good progress in advancing permitting, in exploration, in high-intensity drilling, in establishing the key infrastructure on surface, and of course developing the exploration So, given our increasing confidence in the underground project, we've decided to accelerate approximately $200 million of capital through to mid-2027. This acceleration of capital is expected to de-risk project construction and ramp up, and also could accelerate the development towards the main ore zone. At the same time, we're also assessing to begin incremental underground production from a shallower western extension zone as early as 2028. So since our last project update in June 2024, the mineral resources have increased significantly. As a reminder, only 4 million ounces were included in the underground study update in June 2024, while our year-end mineral resources are now roughly at 6 million ounces in measured and indicated and another 6 million ounces in inferred. And considering the continued exploration success, we feel that there is an opportunity for a larger underground mine than the one we first envisioned. The combination of exploration success and this higher gold price environment has given us a lot of optionality at Detour that we're in the early stages of evaluating. This could include a higher milling capacity, a larger underground scenario, or a larger open pit. You know, we said, um, when the study was completed in 2024 that this was just a snapshot in time, and we continue to believe that. So stay tuned. We feel that further opportunity is still ahead at Detour. Now moving to Upper Beaver. The project continues to advance very well there. The exploration ramp is ahead of schedule, and in the fourth quarter, we began shaft sinking, um, and by year end, the shaft reached a depth of 155 meters. The team has done an excellent job and given their strong execution, we're now planning to spend an additional $100 million from now until project sanction that's expected in mid-2027. Again, like the Detour Underground project, this acceleration of capital is expected to de-risk the construction and ramp up and also accelerate initial production to 2030. Now, I've said this before, but the Upper Beaver project could unlock significant long-term value across the company's wider Kirkland Lake camp. In addition to the potential extension of the mineralization at depth at Upper Beaver, the project could also support a centralized mill strategy for satellite deposits that are nearby, like Upper Canada or Enoki McBean. All in all, the Upper Beaver project is progressing very well. I would like to end by just thanking the teams for their passion, their persistence, their incredible efforts in 2025. It's very much appreciated, and I look forward to continuing to advance the optimization efforts with you and the key projects. With that, I'll pass the call over to Guy.
Thank you, Natasha, and good morning, everyone. First of all, I would like to take a moment to thank all of the exploration team at the different mine sites and regional exploration offices across the company for an excellent year for safety productivity and cost control we had more than 120 drill rig in action through the year in 2025 and safely completed nearly 1.4 million meter of core drilling while controlling our unit costs that were slightly lower than previous year our commitment to innovation led by our drilling excellence team continue to pay off and will be an important part of our success moving forward as we are undertaking 2026 with an objective to exceed 1.5 million meters of drilling on slide 14 the 2025 exploration drill program across our operation and key pipeline project combined with the acquisition of marban project next to the canadian monarctic complex led to a very strong mineral reserve and mineral resources total at year-end 2025. Year-over-year, our mineral reserves are up 2.1% to 55.4 million ounces. Our measured and indicated mineral resources are up by almost 10% to 47 million ounces. And our infer mineral resources are up by an impressive 15.5% to 42 million ounces, demonstrating the strong exploration upside of our asset. As we can see on the graph on the right-hand side of that slide, if we look globally since the merger in early 2022, despite the fact that we've mined approximately 15 million ounces over that period of time, we'll still manage to significantly grow our mineral reserve net of mining depletion to a record of 55.4 million ounces through successful exploration, conversion, delivery of studies, and smart acquisition over the last four years. From a result standpoint, I would like to comment on three projects. On slide 15 in Malartic, the great result produced throughout the year at East Goldie, Odyssey, and the Parallel Eclipse Zone led to an addition year-over-year of about 470,000 ounces in underground proven and probable reserves and of 2.9 million ounces in inferred mineral resources, including 600,000 ounces from the newly discovered Eclipse zone parallel to the East Goldie close to our planned mining infrastructure. And on the adjacent Marban project, 128 drill holes were completed totaling in excess of 39 kilometers of drilling in 2025. An initial mineral reserve declaration of 1.58 million ounces was made from 52 million tons at 0.95 grams per ton as part of our fill the mill strategy. The initial mineral reserve was calculated from the existing drill hole database at the time of the acquisition and did not incorporate any of the 2025 drilling. We plan to deliver an updated study of the Marban project at the end of 26, incorporating new drilling as well as additional opportunities for synergy with the Canadian Monarctic Complex relating to workforce, equipment, and facilities in order to optimize Marban as part of our fill-the-mill strategy. Now, on slide 16, a detour. Drilling has continued extremely well in the year with 215 km of drilling completed, mostly focused on the infilling and expansion of the mineral resources towards the west to advance the underground project. Two areas were specifically targeted, one below and around the center point of the current reserve open pit illustrated here in orange on this graphic. The result in this area continues to support the two-mining approach with several wide intervals which combine widths exceeding 200 meters locally between 1 and 2 grams per tonne, including narrower high-grade intercepts reaching up to 10 grams over 10 meters that could be mined sooner from underground, while keeping the option to mine the much wider lower-grade surrounding mineralized envelope in a future larger open pit scenario. The other area being targeted is located three kilometers to the west and outside to the west of the current ultimate open pit scenario, close to the underground exploration ramp currently being developed. This area also returns strong results up to 10 grams over 10 meters and remains open at depth into the west. At year-end 2025, the resources amenable for underground mine project now stands at 5.5 million ounces in measure and indicated, and 5.8 million ounces in inferred. This will provide a much larger mineral resources base for the upcoming update of the DTOUR underground project, compared to the 2024 initial study that incorporated only 4.6 million ounces in the first iteration of the mine plan. And last but not least, at OPEI, we had six rail rig operating through the year, completing an excellent total of 131,000 meters of drilling in 2025. We continue to see strong results in the patch of an area, both at depth and in the southern extension. The excellent results provided through the year led to the addition of 1 million ounces year-over-year in inferred resources, mostly from the Patch 7 area. With a strong addition of mineral resources since the acquisition of the project in 2021, we have a much larger resources base to support the project redevelopment plan that was discussed earlier by Dominic. In 2026, exploration will continue to focus on growing and converting resources to reserves to support the project development and deliver an updated reserve estimate at the end of 2026. So all in all, an excellent year in exploration that translates into a significant addition of reserves to support our short to medium-term production growth vision, but even more importantly, a very significant increase of 15% an hour in for resources that makes us confident in a bright future. These results keep demonstrating the phenomenal exploration upside of our portfolio of projects and the outstanding work being done by our great exploration, technical services, and operation team across our different operation and key value driver projects. And on that, I will return the microphone to Amar for some closing remarks. Thank you, Guy.
At Agnico Eagle, we are proud of our record of growing value per share for our owners over decades, not only by providing full leverage to gold prices, but also, importantly, by growing gold production per share. As we look forward, we're excited that, even as the second largest producer of gold in the world, we see a clear path to a decade of continued and meaningful increases in production per share at peer-leading costs with exceptional risk-adjusted returns. And we're already working on additional projects that have the potential to add even more growth, including early work on Hammond Reef, Timmins East, and Northern Territory. Next slide, please. As you can see, we continue to work hard for all of our stakeholders and we will continue to build off the same foundational strategic pillars that have served us well over the past 68 years. We're going to continue to focus on the best mining jurisdictions based on geologic potential and political stability. We'll continue to be disciplined with our owner's money, making investment decisions based on technical and regional knowledge, creating value through the drill bit and through smart acquisitions where and when it makes sense. We are uniquely well-positioned with a quality project pipeline leveraging existing assets in the best regions in the world and where we believe we have a strong competitive advantage. We will continue to be focused on creating value on a per-share basis and on being leaders in our industry in returning capital to shareholders, as evidenced by over 42 years of consecutive and growing dividend payments and increasing share buybacks. In summary, 2025 was a great year for the gold market. 2026 is off to an even stronger, albeit volatile, start. And while we don't have a crystal ball to predict prices next week or next month, we do remain constructive and positive on the long-term gold price going forward due to global, structural, financial, and political currents that are not easily changed. Our goal is not only to give our owners full upside leverage to gold prices, but to give them more gold per share over time. We've done that for decades, and we have a solid plan in place to continue to do that over the next decade, All while having the highest quality assets in the best jurisdictions in the world at peer leading costs. At Agnico Eagle our business is going well and we're in the strongest position in our almost 70 year history. Thank you again for joining us on this call operator may I ask that we now open up the call for questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen will we now begin our question and answer session. should you have a question please press star followed by the one on your touch tone phone you will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised should you wish to decline from the polling process please press the star followed by the two and if you're using a speakerphone please lift up the handset before pressing any keys and we have our first question from Lawson Winder with Bank
of America please go ahead thank you very much operator and good morning Amara Jamie and team thank you for all the comments today if I could just tackle the subject of M&A right off the block and I understand that it's probably a little bit sensitive right now but any color you could provide would be helpful but has Ignico decided if they would tender their shares the offer currently
out on foran well thanks Lawson look like any M&A activity you know the decisions are up to the various shareholders and there's a lot more shareholders than us so that's not really something I would be comfortable
discussing okay I thought I would try anyway but I completely understand and And then maybe just sticking with that theme, there has been an acceleration in M&A activity in the gold space in recent years, but even in recent quarters. What is the current view from Ignico in terms of M&A? And of course, I mean, I acknowledge that you have tremendous growth potential in the existing portfolio, but I mean, opportunities do emerge from time to time. What is the thinking on that, particularly with respect to jurisdiction, but also just respect to your thoughts on, you know, potential urgency around M&A? Thanks, Omar.
Well, it's an excellent question. And I'll start. M&A, like exploration, like project investment, is a capital allocation decision. And it's our owner's money. And we take that seriously, and everything we invest in is designed to create value for our owners on a per-share basis. What does that mean for M&A? That means a couple of things. The first part is, are you positioned to be able to identify and assess good opportunities to invest your owner's money, including an M&A? And I think we're very well positioned. You know us. We know everybody in the communities and the regions we work with. We have good relationships. We have, in many cases, a very good understanding of the various assets out there. So we are well positioned, and this is important. Like, it's easy to buy stuff. It's hard to buy stuff that makes money for your owners. So the first thing is, are you positioned to have a knowledge advantage? and I think we are well positioned there but what I would say Lawson is we are willing to move and we have moved when we see an opportunity on the M&A side that actually creates value per share we're not interested in just getting bigger the hard part is actually creating value per share and so that's going to always be the driver not only of M&A but but all of our capital allocation decisions.
Thank you very much.
We have our next question from Fahad Tariq with Jefferies.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Maybe just to clarify, there were a few cost productivity initiatives mentioned in this presentation. I remember there were a lot more also mentioned in the last quarter presentation. Is this already incorporated in the 2026 ASIC guidance, or is this further improvement from the guidance that's provided? Thanks.
Dominique speaking. I would say it's partially included, but not all. We all, Natasha and myself, the role to put the bar at the right place for budget and guidance,
but we keep some flexibility in that. Okay. And then just on the underlying inflation, I think the comment was made, and this was in the press release, somewhere around 4% underlying cost inflation. Can you just remind us, like, or any other color on consumables versus labor. Fuel is probably a tailwind at this point. And any key labor agreements that are coming up
for renewal in 2026? Yeah, so if Jamie, I can comment on that. I'd say, I mean, our biggest cost, apart from taxes now, is labor. It's about 45% of our overall cost structure. And, you know, we've seen labor inflation running at around 4%. You know, across the other consumables, you know, chemicals, reagents, equipment, parts, and supplies, there's some fluctuation. But overall, I think across the industry last year, inflation, cost inflation ran around 5%. So, you know, 4% on labor, 5.5%, 6% on everything else.
And, you know, I'll make the comment, when you observe what's really pushed costs up in the past, It hasn't been so much that labor costs went up, you know, 6% instead of 4%. It's been when you can't get the labor and when you can't get the parts. At $5,000 gold, you know, we anticipate there is going to be more pressure on workforces. But one of the advantages we really believe we have at Agneco is our lowest turnover in the industry. We've been the number one employer in the regions we operate for decades. We have really good relationships with our people, and more than whether it's 5% or 6%, it's going to be, can you keep your turnover low? Are you going to get the kind of productivity that you depend on from really the best workers? And we think we are very well positioned in the market for that.
Great. Thank you very much.
And we have our next question from Josh Wolfson with RBC Capital Markets.
Thanks very much. If everything goes according to plan with the project portfolio, I'm wondering if we should expect CapEx to increase in future years, or should we think about the current run rate as more of a plateau going forward?
Yeah, Josh, it's Jamie here. It's a good question. And I think with the 20% to 30% production growth starting in 2030 and ramping up through the decade, you're seeing the benefits of that capital spending. Assuming we go ahead with Hope Bay and approve construction of that project in May of this year, that would add about $300 million to maybe $350 million of capital. So, you know, if you factor what we've guided, the 2.1 that we guided, another $300 million for Hope Bay, we're about $2.5 billion, $2.4, $2.5 billion of capital this year, plus another $400 million of capitalized exploration. I think that's an appropriate range over the course of the next few years. We will see capitals kind of stay at that elevated level, and then once we start to see that stair-step increase in production in 2030, you'd expect the capital to start to come off.
And it's important to note we are voluntarily accelerating these investments. These are not overruns. These are not things we are voluntarily accelerating because at these prices, these projects really do deliver exceptional returns in the sort of 30% to 60% IRR range. And again, our job is to make our owners money, and if we can make them an IRR of 30% to 60%, that's a good thing. So, you know, we, again, to emphasize, these are voluntary decisions we made to accelerate what we think are the best projects in the world.
I look forward to these project updates and the IRRs at $5,000 gold. Just on the capital allocation side of things, you know, current gold prices, even with the new dividend, And assuming completion of, you know, the $2 billion upcoming NCIB, you know, by our forecast, you're still building pretty meaningful cash at these levels. So when you think about, you know, our projections outline potentially excess of $5 billion in the back half this year of net cash, you know, how do you think about allocating that in the event gold prices stay at these levels or potentially go higher?
Yeah, thanks, Josh. I mean, obviously, we want to have as much financial flexibility and financial strength as possible because it just creates optionality in terms of, you know, how best to grow value in the business. To Amar's point, I mean, we've identified the five key value drivers and how we think we can expand those. But, you know, based on the success that we've had through the drill bit, the projects keep evolving and there could be the potential for, you know, further growth and further accelerations in capital spending. So we do want to make sure that we've got the balance sheet to be able to support that. You know, if we end up between three to five percent of our market cap in cash on the balance sheet, I don't think that's a bad place to be. Again, it just gives us that financial foundation to be able to have the capacity to invest in further growth in the business.
And to tie in that sort of train of thought and maybe Lawson's questions on M&A, I'm wondering on the M&A side, you sort of outlined, Amar, the opportunity to create value per share. But there are a lot of projects the company has that, you know, look outstanding at current gold prices. So, you know, when you think about measuring external opportunities against the internal portfolio, you know, what would make an M&A opportunity really look compelling beyond just per share upside?
That's an excellent question, and I'm glad you put it in the context of, you know, competing with internal projects because, you know, you always want to, it's like anything else, you want to pick the best investment for your owners. You know, I think with regard, so on the one hand, internal projects, you always have more knowledge. You just do. And so that's a bit, that kind of leans towards, you know, if I had something at the same return that's internal versus external, you know, your natural reaction would go to the one that you have more confidence in, which is always internal. That said, you know, what would really interest us and what has really driven us for external M&A has really been exploration upside. You know, everything we buy, you know this industry, if you buy a high-quality asset, you end up paying what seems like a full price. But the real value is, do you have a very strong view on the exploration upside? You know, and that's frankly been the modus operandi of what we've done on the M&A side. The real return to our owners has been from expanding well beyond the initial view of
what was there. Thank you very much. Thank you.
We have our next question from Daniel Major with UBS.
Excuse me. Can you hear me okay?
Great. Thanks. Yeah, a few questions. First one, can you give us an approximate cost estimate of the ounces coming from the life extension at Meadow Bank, like out to 2030?
Probably should have said to Dom because he's got more updated numbers. I think the last number I saw was sort of in the $22 to $2,300. Yeah, right there.
Okay, good.
Okay, thanks, Yissel. I just wanted to point out that those are additional ounces, so it's not like the costs went up. These are just additional ounces that make an awful lot of money at current spot prices. You know, something that's interesting, I'll just throw this out there, Meadow Bank is on our books for, I think, $866 million. In 2025, Meadow Bank made $870 million in cash flow, so it's been really quite a remarkable asset.
Okay, yeah, and sorry, just to be clear, that $22,000, $23,000, that's an ASIC, not
a total cash cost, that's correct. The second one, just to perhaps follow on from the capital allocation question in terms of returning excess cash, to Josh's question, would you consider the combination of buybacks and special dividends in a continued high price scenario, or would you just extend the $2 billion buyback facility?
Thanks, Anne. I think we could really do either. I think there's no reason for us to rule out ever paying a special dividend. That would certainly be a consideration in, as you say, a continually rising gold price environment. If we achieve that cap of $2 billion and we're still generating excess cash beyond what we need or anticipate needing to run the business, then that would certainly be a consideration.
Okay. And then one more, if I could, and it sort of incorporates your current project pipeline and other options. You have us accelerating capital spend and adding more projects to the pipeline. Do you feel at any point the organization's reaching a limit in terms of technical and kind of human capital? And if that is the case, yeah, in terms of other options like Hammond Reef, Taylor, Holt, et cetera, you know, what could they be worth to somebody else? And would it
ever be a consideration to recycle those projects? Again, excellent question. So we always look at how do we get the most money for anything for our owners? So I would say that, you know, we are at a point with what we've got on the table very comfortable, but we are using a lot of our people. And so to the extent that we would look at, say, Hammond Reef or some of the others, they would be scheduled to take that into account, the manpower availability. And a lot of these jobs are very highly skilled, highly specific jobs. But your point is a good point. If it makes sense for someone else to own one of those assets and they view that they can pay our owners more money than we see in it, we would always be open to that.
Great. Thanks. And that's been a great year. Thank you.
Our next question. Oh, pardon me. Our next question is from Anita Soni with CIBC.
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I think we've talked about capital allocation a lot, but I did want to understand the way you think about the downside on dividends. I get you guys are conservative and said you never want to cut your dividend, but how did you sort of come up with the 12.5% pay versus the 25%? Is there some kind of pricing scenario that you're using in order to determine that the dividends and that's like the baseline scenario
that you use? Hi, Anita. Yeah, it's Jamie. There's no specific gold price scenario that we're using in a specific downside scenario to come up with that dividend. The reality is the gold price could pretty well be cut in half and we'd be okay maintaining that level of dividend. So I'm very confident in an increase and you know the increase is 100 million from 800 to 900 million a year uh it's a pretty modest percentage of our overall free cash flow so so very comfortable increasing the dividend to to that level and really we'll use the share buyback as uh you know the we'll either increase or or or reduce that depending on our profitability and and cash flow
generation and then secondly i just wanted to talk a little bit about the um the project so thanks for all the detail on the projects that gives us something to work with to bring to life some of these reserves and resources and that organic pipeline in our models um so could you just uh specifically on um on hope bay uh i guess you're putting out an updated study in may could you give i mean could you give us a little bit of a teaser on in terms of the capex and numbers that that we could potentially be looking at?
Yeah, I need to add them, Nick. Yeah, CAPEX is going to be around this 2 billion. Again, we're still working on it. But that's where we're looking for. The project is going very well in terms of like , we're preparing the field. Like, we're going to have over 400 rooms, new rooms, ready for the construction. We're preparing the land field. We have currently around 100 people working full-time doing engineering to make sure that we're going to be at 50, 60. And this is what you need to be able to have the what is the capex that's going to be spent. When you have a lot of detail, a good amount of detail, it's easy. You could go in tender. You work with a contractor, the supplier, to firm up your number. That's what we did at Miljadin. We end up six months in advance and on budget. At the time, we're looking to do the same thing.
And as Dominic sort of said, and I think he used the expression, not our first barbecue in Nunavut. But, you know, in Nunavut, because of the logistics, if you make a mistake, it's a lot more expensive. And so the team has done a great job on engineering and a great job on preparing the site. You know, I'll add, you know, upgrades to the port facility, upgrade to the lay-down facility, we've emptied already the previous mill building, you know, I mentioned the camp, like all the things between preparation and engineering to make sure that you're in the best possible position for execution, which is important in any project and particularly important in projects that have sort of those kind of logistical challenges.
Just wanted to say congratulations on the growth. that's truly a standout for the senior group. And also on Hope Bay, I think, I remember you took a bit of flack for that acquisition four or five years ago, and it looks like it's going to be, I mean, just by my rough mouth, you're like a sub $300 all-in acquisition and build cost. So, congratulations on that. Thank you, Anita.
And thank you. Our next question comes from Tanya Jiskuskinek with Scotiabank.
Oh, great. Good morning, everybody. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can, Tanya.
Okay, great. Thank you. And thank you for taking my questions. I was just going to continue with Hope, if I could, from Anita's question. Dominic, can you remind me, you said, you know, if we get the go-ahead in May. And by the way, if we do have a mine tour, Dominic, it better be in May or summer barbecue for us to attend. Can you just remind me of what exactly you have permitted up there to do for that $300 million that would be spent in 2026? And what exactly would that $300 million go for?
Yeah, we have all the permits to spend that $300 million. It's not an issue. There are some amendments to do before, let's say, getting into production, but there is no red flag on that. But what we're going to spend is mainly procurement, it's mainly putting steel, concrete and everything we need. Again, we work with barge season, it's always what we need to spend from mid or let's say the first barge in September 26, getting to the September 27, we need to put everything on the boat. So it is approximately eight boats that we need to fill up and to deliver to site and to start some more work. This is one part of the spending. The other part is to do ram development. So keep preparing the field to be ready for full production in 2030. So that's going to be the other part where we're going to spend money.
Okay. Okay. Look forward to that study in May. And then I have a second question, which comes back to this capital allocation again. I wanted to understand, Amar, from you. First of all, as I look at all of these projects and think about the, you know, the timeframe of, you know, 2031 for some of these to come in and 23, should I be thinking that there's about $5 billion of capital to support this growth? Is that somehow how I should be thinking about it? Or maybe Jamie can help me out on that as well.
Yeah, sure. I mean, at a really high level, if you walk through each of the projects, Detour Underground, you know, potentially if you round up a billion dollars, Upper Beavers, a billion dollars, Hope Bay is two billion. Beyond that, you know, we'll be providing an update on San Nicolas likely, you know, later this year. But, yeah, $5 to $6 billion of growth spending over the course of 26 through 2030, I think, is about the right estimate, Tanya.
And I would point out it's sort of subtle, but the team's done a great job in pretty much keeping the sustaining CapEx steady.
And if I can squeeze one more in, I know I could keep it through, but maybe for yourself, Amara, As you think about this capital allocation and as you think about M&A and as you look at obviously returns to shareholders, one thing is how important is it to own 100% of your assets? The reason I ask is if tech was to sell their 50% interest in Sam Nicholas, would that be something you would consider for your capital allocation?
If it made money for our owners on a per-share basis, absolutely we would consider it.
Okay, great.
And thank you. Our next question is from John Tomazos with John Tomazos Independent Research.
Thank you very much. We increased the underground resources at Malartic this year, 7.5 million ounces. should we expect $7.5 million more in the coming year, or are we getting done with it first? Then second, in terms of converting the inferred resources eventually to reserves, Is it more efficient to wait until after 2030 when the first and second shafts might be done? Significant development has been completed and the zones can be either visually inspected or channel sampled or close space drilled from underground without the substantial cost of half-mile or one-mile holes from surface.
So your first question this year, we made a big push at converting the outskirts. When you look at the pale green mineral inventory in the outskirts of East Goldie to bring it to the infertice, this is where you saw the big addition. There's still some mineral inventory in the outskirts, but much less than we were used to have. And it was by design because we wanted to tight fill that, you know, mineralized envelope to bring it to infer. And to your second question, we are already kind of doing some, you know, with the current infrastructure, with the ramp and the upper part of East Goldie. We're going to be doing more and more of that conversion to reserve because you're right, achieving kind of the drill spacing to classify it to indicate it or reserve is much more cost-efficient from underground. So we're going to be having access from the current linkage ramp that goes all the way to the East Gaudi and from the upper part of East Gaudi trying to do as much of the reserve conversion from underground. But there will be also a continuation of drilling from surface. But we've seen over the total number of drill rig that Dominic was mentioning, You know, there's a progressive shift towards much more drilling from underground compared to the drilling from surface. So we were really aiming to bring it to infer from surface, and we're going to be doing a lot more of the conversion towards reserve from underground. For the reason you mentioned, in fact, that in order to achieve, you know, the drill spacing at, you know, 30 to 40 meter drill spacing, it's much easier to achieve that and less and more cost effective to do that from underground.
Is it sort of the maximum capacity to add 2.5 million ounces a year to reserve, or could it be faster?
To resources, you meant, because in terms of reserve...
No, no, from inferred to reserve.
Yeah, from inferred to reserve this year, for example, we've added 470,000 ounces, and our pace is about that to convert about half a million ounces from resources to reserve moving forward. I think that's the achievable pace we're targeting.
So you've got 20 years' worth of that in front of you. I'm kidding you, Guy.
Thank you.
And thank you. We have our next question from Bennett Moore with JPMorgan Chase.
Good morning, Amaran team. Congrats on a record year, and thank you for taking my questions. Could you unpack the slowing of the mill ramp and change of sequencing at Detour Lake a bit further and implications on cost and capex for the next few years ahead of that growth trajectory into
the next decade? You're talking about the timeline, Bennett, for the mill ramp up at Detour?
Yes, and any implications, I guess, also including, you know, incremental stripping and things like
that. Okay, sounds good. So I'll start with the mill. So in terms of the mill, we did reach 28 million tons this year. It's a remarkable achievement for the team. The mill has been in expansion mode for the last six years, Bennett. And so the team was looking to just to take a bit of time to stabilize the throughput and ensure that we have the sustainable operating practices in place. And this just gives the team a little bit of flexibility. So with respect to the timeline, we're looking at still getting the mill up and running to 29 million tons by 2030. And at the same time, when we reran our life of mine plan, we're looking at reaching the million ounces in the early 2030s. So not much of a change on that end.
Yeah, part of the thing with, you know, and this is getting it maybe a little bit pedantic, but it's not just the throughput. It's make sure you don't have any recovery issues. You don't have any reliability issues. So Natasha's point, they've done a great job, and I think we have some of the best people in the world on that, and we always take their advice on how to do things the best way.
Thanks for that. And then coming to Meadow Bank, the mine life, it's nice to see extended to 2030, even if it's incrementally higher cost ounces. but wondering if you could give a better understanding of the opportunity beyond 2030 as it relates to an underground-only mine. I mean, could this be of similar size and scale as we've seen over recent years?
Yeah, the team are looking, targeting, and again, this is very conceptual, 250, is it something possible? We know it is going deeper underground, so we could just keep mining. They're also looking for smallest pushback here and there. They're looking below what we've mined at Goos at the time, below what we've mined at Vault at the time, putting that together to see could we extend the middle bank. Of course, the 5,000 U.S. per ounce gold price is very welcome for Nunavut, for middle bank. It is also very welcome because the drill keeps running. And who knows? We just need one hole, and that could change the picture. So it's very positive. Yes, it is higher cost, but as Amor mentioned, it is on top of with existing infrastructure with minimal capex to deliver that. So we are still working on it. Maybe 2020, I would say not before 2027, we could give you more on that. Let's see how the team is going to be able to work at it.
Thanks so much and best of luck. Thank you.
And thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Amar Al-Jundi for closing remarks.
Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. Please have a, for those of you who get the long weekend, please enjoy it with your families.
And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.