Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Armstrong World Industries Inc. Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, today's program may be recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Tom Waters, Vice President of Corporate Finance. Please, go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Good morning and welcome everyone. Please note that members of the media have been invited to listen to this call and the call is being broadcast live on our website. With me on the call today are Vic Grizzle our CEO; and Brian MacNeal, our CFO. Hopefully, you have seen our press release this morning and both the release and the presentation Brian will reference during this call are posted on our website in the Investor Relations section. I advise you that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual outcomes may differ materially from those expected or implied. For a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may affect Armstrong World Industries, please review our SEC filings, including the 10-Q filed earlier this morning. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement beyond what is required by applicable securities law. In addition, our discussion of operating performance will include non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of SEC Regulation G. A reconciliation of these measures with the most directly comparable GAAP measures is included in the press release and in the appendix of the presentation. Both are available on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Vic.

Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone, and thanks again for joining us today. I'm pleased to be with you today from our corporate campus in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Armstrong, like many companies, is adapting to a new normal of hybrid work activity. Here at Armstrong, safety protocols are in place and our physical spaces have undergone a first phase of modifications to allow our organization to return to the office safely. We're actively working on more permanent changes to our facilities, including the use of new ceiling and grid solutions to create healthier spaces for our staff and visitors. Our manufacturing and distribution facilities continue to operate well and safely. Quality and service levels are high and our connectivity to customers, enabled by our digital tools, remains excellent. Overall, demand in the quarter improved sequentially much as we had expected. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Q3 was 14% better than Q2, down 11% versus prior year. In addition, we saw sequential improvement within the quarter, as daily Mineral Fiber sales improved from down 15% in July to down 11% in September. And October has continued this trend and is progressing better than September. Our top seven territories, which had lagged significantly in the second quarter, returned to the overall national average during the quarter. But the New York metro area, our highest AUV territory, continues to lag. Overall, sales of $247 million were down 11% in the quarter versus prior year. Volume was down 10% and Mineral Fiber AUV was slightly negative. Positive like-for-like pricing improvement and favorable product mix were offset by negative channel mix and negative territory mix, primarily driven by the lag in New York metro area. In addition, sales to big box customers were up in the quarter versus 2019, which is good from a volume perspective, but given the lower sales price in this channel, it was also a headwind to mix. While the overall demand trends in the quarter progressed largely as expected, there were some developments that we observed that I want to share with you to provide context on the market conditions. As expected, construction activity picked up in the territories most impacted by COVID-related restrictions in the second quarter, namely the seven largest territories we referenced on our last call. The easing of state and local regulations on job sites and the increasing ability of contractors to work with the newly imposed restrictions both helped this situation. However, as the quarter progressed we saw delays emerge in previously less impacted territories, namely the South and the Midwest following the migration of the virus. This shift in regional activity reflects the impact of increasing COVID cases on construction activity and the overall uneven nature of the market reopening. New construction activity has fared pretty well overall, as existing projects continue toward completion, while smaller and midsized renovation projects experienced greater headwinds. In our conversations with our customers, it is clear that there remains a lot of near-term uncertainty as building owners work to determine the best path forward to adapt their facilities to enable the safe return of occupants. This is also true with schools, with some remodel activity remaining on hold, as many students learn from home. Also in the quarter we continued to experience softness in our low visibility flow business. These are the small discretionary repair/remodel type projects that flow through our distribution partners and often without a specification. In addition to the uneven opening of the markets, we also experienced minor business interruptions in the quarter due to protest activity in certain cities and Hurricane Sally, which closed our Pensacola, Florida plant for a few days. Thankfully our team at the plant is safe and we're back up and running. The Armstrong team and our partners continue to earn my admiration as they overcome obstacles and continue to deliver for our customers. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter of $92 million was down 19% from 2019. The pandemic-driven volume decline is really the entire story as the business continues to operate well and as expected otherwise. Brian will provide more details on our financial results in a moment. But it has been an impressive performance by our operations team in an extraordinary environment. I could not be more proud of the work that they have done thus far. Despite the challenges in the market, our strong cash flow performance continues, and we remain on track to deliver over $200 million in adjusted free cash flow. Based on this continued strong cash flow generation and our confidence to continue to do so, our Board has approved a 5% increase in our regular quarterly dividend to $0.21 per share, and we are restarting our share repurchase program. The third quarter was also notable, in that we completed two M&A transactions. The previously discussed acquisition of Chicago-based Turf Design, the leading provider of custom felt-based ceilings and walls, and then on August 24, we acquired Moz Designs. Moz is a Northern California-based designer and fabricator of custom architectural metal ceilings, walls, dividers, and column covers. Moz brings unique capabilities that can be utilized to improve the product offerings of our three existing metal ceiling facilities and further strengthens our already leading position in the growing category of metal ceilings and walls. As cleanable surfaces and partition solutions are now more important than ever, I'm delighted to welcome the Moz team to the Armstrong family. This transaction marks our seventh acquisition since 2017. We are truly building an unmatched platform of specialty ceilings and walls and we are not done. Our M&A pipeline continues to grow as we see more and more opportunities to build out the most unique set of capabilities in the industry, and our financial strength allows us to do so. Now with that, I'll pause and turn the call over to Brian to review our financial results, and then I'll be back to talk about the creation of healthy spaces that is dominating the conversation in these times.

Thanks, Vic. Good morning to everyone on the call. Today, I'll be reviewing our third quarter results. But before I begin, as a friendly reminder, I'll be referring to the slides available on our website, and slide three details our basis of presentation. Beginning on slide 4, for our overall third quarter results, sales of $246 million were down 11% versus prior year, a significant sequential improvement from the second quarter when year-over-year sales were down 25%. Adjusted EBITDA fell 19% and margins contracted 370 basis points, again a substantial sequential improvement from the second quarter when year-over-year EBITDA was down 36% and margins contracted 590 basis points. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.07 fell 22% and adjusted free cash flow declined by $53 million versus the prior year. I'll address the reasons for this decline in a moment. Our cash balance at quarter-end was $139 million, and coupled with $315 million of availability on our revolver, positions us with $454 million of available liquidity, down $33 million from last quarter as we completed the Turf and Moz acquisitions during this past quarter, and down $24 million from the third quarter of 2019. Net debt of $542 million is $4 million higher than last year as a result of our acquisitions, partially offset by cash earnings and the receipt of $19 million from the sale of our Qingpu plant in China, which was idled. As of the quarter-end, our net debt to EBITDA ratio was 1.5 times versus 1.6 times last year as calculated under the terms of our credit agreement. Our covenant threshold is 3.75 times, so we have considerable headroom in this measure. Our balance sheet is in solid shape. In the quarter, we did not repurchase any shares as our repurchase program remains suspended to preserve liquidity in light of the COVID-19 impact on the market. Last week, our Board of Directors approved the restart of the program. Going forward, we will look to return to our customary approach of repurchasing shares subject to our normal processing protocols. Since the inception of the repurchase program, we've bought back 9.6 million shares at a cost of $596 million for an average price of $62.13. We currently have $604 million remaining under our share repurchase program, which now expires in December of 2023. Slide 5 illustrates our Mineral Fiber segment results. In the quarter, sales were down 14% versus prior year, but sequentially improved from the prior quarter when year-over-year sales declined 26%. COVID-19 driven volume declines were the key driver. AUV was a headwind, as positive like-for-like pricing and favorable product mix were offset by the channel and geographic mix issues that Vic mentioned. While sales in our key seven territories improved sequentially and converged with the performance in other territories, performance within these key seven territories was inconsistent and was a headwind to overall price and mix for the Mineral Fiber segment. AUV in the remaining territories was positive. Adjusted EBITDA was down $20 million or 21% as the volume decline fell through to the bottom line and AUV was a drag. Continued manufacturing productivity and cost reduction initiatives, lower raw material and energy costs, and SG&A cost management were all positive in the quarter. WAVE equity earnings were down due to lower sales and also as a result of a year-to-date true-up of allocated costs from Armstrong and Worthington. Moving to Architectural Specialties segment on slide six, sales were up 1% as the acquisitions of Turf and Moz contributed almost $8 million in the quarter and offset COVID-driven organic sales decline of 12% which were sequentially better than the 22% decline we experienced in the second quarter. While current period sales activity was challenged given state and local restrictions, we continue to have exciting wins and have been awarded the Kansas City International Airport and the Princeton University Residential College projects. These jobs will ship in 2021 and 2022 and demonstrate our continued ability to win complex and iconic projects. Despite flat sales direct margins expanded significantly driven by the higher margins of the Turf and Moz acquisitions relative to our base business and ongoing productivity in the network particularly at acquired facilities. Slide seven shows our consolidated results for the quarter and clearly illustrate the impact of COVID-related volume declines. Slide eight shows adjusted free cash flow performance in the quarter versus the third quarter of 2019. Cash flow from operations was down $48 million, largely driven by volume due to COVID-19. Also in the quarter despite lower income in Q3 2020, we actually paid $14 million more in cash taxes than in the third quarter of 2019. This is largely driven by timing in certain discrete items in the base period. Not included in this cash flow bridge are two significantly positive non-recurring cash items. In the quarter, we applied a $27 million tax refund related to the sale of our international operations. And we received $19 million from the sale of our closed Qingpu facility in China. We have received an additional $2 million from the sale in October and this transaction is now complete. Slide nine shows our year-to-date results. As you can see sales were down 12%, adjusted EBITDA is down 18%, and adjusted free cash flow is down 16%. Slide 10 is our year-to-date bridge. Again COVID-related volume declines are the main driver followed by the geographic and customer AUV issues we've called out. For the year product mix and like-for-like pricing are both positive contributors to sales, but mix is a headwind to EBITDA due to geographic and channel mix. Input costs deflation and the savings we are driving in manufacturing and SG&A despite our acquisitions helped mitigate the sales fall through to the EBITDA. Slide 11 reflects our year-to-date free cash flow. As with the quarter, operating cash flow was impacted by volume declines due to COVID-19 the tax refund in Qingpu sales proceeds mentioned earlier are excluded. Capital expenditures reflects the delaying actions we are taking to finalize or to prioritize cash in the near term. Interest expense is lower as a result of our refinancing in September of 2019. WAVE earnings were impacted by volume declines. Slide 12 is our guidance for the year. We now anticipate full year revenues in the range of $920 million to $935 million were down 10% to 11%. Overall the decline will be entirely volume as we anticipate AUV to be essentially flat for the full year. EBITDA will be in the range of $320 million to $330 million as the sales decline drops down and is partially offset by productivity and the impact of our cost containment actions. Actions are in place to drive $40 million to $45 million of savings in manufacturing and SG&A down slightly by $5 million from our previous outlook as we invest for future growth. Our cash flow guidance is adjusted from our prior outlook as we have taken capital expenditures up acquired the working capital of Turf and Moz and adjusted the seasonal trajectory of our fourth quarter to account for continued sequential improvement. These are challenging times but Armstrong is laser-focused on controlling what we can control investing to drive growth and building on an already best-in-class platform. Our ability to execute two meaningful acquisitions during a global pandemic is testament to our focus and confidence. I have no doubt that we will emerge on the other side of this crisis in even stronger position to grow and create value.

Thanks, Brian. Healthy spaces is the dominant topic in commercial construction conversations today. 92% of architects and designers surveyed said they are having conversations with their clients on how to make their spaces healthier and safer. And it's a universally known fact that we spend 90% of our lives indoors. And even though healthy spaces have always been important this pandemic has made it an even greater priority possibly the highest priority and the standards for which health and safety are measured are being raised to a whole new level. At Armstrong, we have been the leading supplier of ceilings and spaces where healthy has mattered the most in operating rooms, in ICU wards, and other isolation room applications. Now we are bringing that experience to today's conversation about creating healthy spaces and how to create one. We believe a healthy space and safe space is a space that protects us and fosters a feeling of well-being and comfort that allows people to be at their best. So where do ceilings come in? You're already familiar with how ceilings play a role in acoustics and aesthetics and in making the most of natural and supplemental light in interior environments, all of which are part of the healthy spaces equation. As the structural capstone of any space, the right ceiling system can make a meaningful difference by bringing the additional elements of healthy spaces together. Our ceiling grid and partition solutions contribute to maximizing ventilation and minimizing the transmission of harmful pathogens. In most buildings, the ceiling system is part of the supply and return air ducting. We're already very in tuned with that with our current solutions for health care spaces. We are now adapting this technology to be more affordable and effective in the office, the classroom, and other settings to meet the new definition and the new standards for a healthy space. I'm very pleased to introduce a new family of products called 24/7 Defend. These products represent innovative new solutions against harmful pathogens and other particles in indoor environments. Our 24/7 Defend product family already includes infusion partitions and CleanAssure disinfectable products, which are proven cleanable products. What's new is the AirAssure family of gasketed ceiling tile products that self-seal to the grid system and a new integrated VidaShield ultraviolet air purification and ceiling tile system. When placed in our standard grid system, AirAssure gasketed ceiling panels form a tight seal and reduce air flow leakage into the plenum by 300% over standard ceiling panels. Reducing air leaks significantly increases the effectiveness of air ventilation and filtration systems allowing more air to flow through the return air vents where it can be filtered and purified ensuring greater air quality. In addition to allowing more filtering and cleaning of air vent spaces, AirAssure can also reduce the risk of pathogens traveling between spaces in a building, further protecting a greater number of people. In addition to offices and health care facilities, this is vital for schools and senior living facilities as they are being asked to create more isolation rooms to prevent the spread of infections. Reducing air leakage with AirAssure is an easy way to retrofit existing rooms and is available with our popular Sustain and Total Acoustics solutions. Now in a complementary way, the new patented scientifically proven VidaShield system pairs an active ultraviolet air purification system with Armstrong ceiling panels to provide cleaner, safer air in any commercial space. An unobtrusive drop in ceiling system that draws air into a chamber above the ceiling, exposes the air to UV light, neutralizing harmful pathogens and then returning clean air to the room. VidaShield can be used as a stand-alone solution or for even better results can be integrated with AirAssure panels. Together these two new solutions reduce the risk of indoor air transmission of harmful pathogens. This pandemic is serving as a catalyst to renovating commercial spaces to create healthy and safer spaces unlike anything we've seen before. And we believe it will continue to evolve for many years to come because healthy spaces are now essential. These new products are just the beginning of the 24/7 Defend family as we have solutions in our innovation pipeline that we will add to this family in the coming quarters. Armstrong is a clear leader in the commercial construction market and we have been for many, many years. As the need for healthier buildings evolves, we will be at the forefront driving positive change in our industry. We believe these changes in the short and long-term will allow market leader like Armstrong to further grow our business and bolster our competitive advantage. Together with our industry-leading position, our digitalization investments, and now with our expanding health spaces platform Armstrong is well positioned for profitable top line growth. With a pending renovation renaissance in the medium-term and a whole new way of thinking about commercial interior spaces longer-term, we are both ready for and excited about the possibilities ahead. And this is all aligned with our commitment to continue to deliver strong returns for our shareholders and to making a positive difference by creating healthier spaces where people live, work, learn, heal and play. And with that we'll be happy to take your questions at this time.

Our first question comes from the line of John Lovallo from Bank of America. Your question, please.

Can you guys hear me?

Great. Yes, we can hear you now John.

Okay, great. Sorry about that. That was on my end. I apologize. So your outlook for flat AUV in 2020, it seems to imply something like 2.5% positive in the fourth quarter. I mean, is this how you guys are thinking about it? Or am I reading this incorrectly?

Brian, do you want to take that?

Yes, sure, John. On the sales side, yes for sure. And we've used the word relatively flat, so plus or minus 1% let's say in that range. But we continue to see that geographic territory channel mix is a headwind for the fall-through to EBITDA.

Okay. That's helpful. Regarding depreciation and amortization, the outlook of $70 million for 2020 within your EBITDA guidance suggests only about $7 million of D&A in the fourth quarter, indicating a significant decrease. Is that correct? If so, what is driving that?

Do you want me to take that Vic?

Yes, please.

Yes. So John yes that is correct. And it's just the timing of assets moving off the depreciation schedule.

Okay, all right. Thank you guys.

Yes. Thanks, John.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson from Thompson Research Group. Your question please.

Hey, good morning. This is actually Brian Biros on for Kathryn. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the Architectural Specialty segment. I think last quarter kind of expected the segment to outperform, the Mineral Fiber segment based on I think the pipeline and the visibility that you guys had. Organic was down 12% in Q3 versus Mineral Fiber was down 14%, so a little bit of outperformance there. I guess was that in line with your expectations? Or are there maybe a few delays that dragged that down a little bit?

Brian, this is Vic. Yes, I think that was aligned with our expectations. Again quarter-to-quarter because of the project nature of that business you can see some different comparisons. On the year, I still expect architectural specialties as we did in the third quarter, but I expect that in total for 2020 to outperform the overall market. We had a terrific quarter in terms of order intake in the architectural specialty, although a lot of that is for 2021 and 2022. But still there's a lot of activity out there and that team is doing a terrific job and winning projects.

Got it. And then trying to understand I guess the regionality. I think you mentioned some of the slower ones that were there in Q2 and Q3 are now back to the national average, excluding the New York City metro. Are those expected to remain at that national average into Q4 and early 2021? Or is there some amount of pent-up demand from being behind earlier that could maybe swing them to be above the average going forward in the near-term?

Yes. I wouldn't put a lot of tailwind to them in terms of pent-up demand. I think a lot of this is just really depending on how these key metropolitan areas are opening up and experiencing the virus. We did see sequential improvement in those key seven territories we highlighted in the second quarter, which was a significant drag for us. And as those territories opened back up and got back up to a run rate that was consistent with the rest of the markets, that's what we expected to see and that's what we saw except for the New York metro area, which continues to lag. But within the non-key seven territories, so the rest of the territories we were seeing sequential improvement there as well. But as the COVID cases caught up to some of those lesser impact territories like the Midwest or South as we were highlighting, we start to see activity slow in terms of the sequential improvement in those areas which makes sense right? The number of COVID cases is impacting the relative construction activity in those markets. So I think this all gets back to normal as we get on the other side of these cities and these territories opening back up and responding to normal market demand conditions. So I think that's going to continue to be the uncertainty here is the rate and pace at which a lot of these territories experienced the virus and then come out of their experience with the virus.

Got it. And maybe just quickly following up on the New York City Metro specifically, I understand that's still lagging. Is there a magnitude you can put on that? Or maybe is it lagging but getting better? Or is it lagging and staying down?

There hasn't been significant improvement, and we're still behind other regions. However, we did see some sequential progress as expected, but we're still not where we want to be. We won't be breaking down the performance of each region individually at this time.

Got it. Thank you.

Fine. Thanks.

Our next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs. Your question please.

Thank you, good morning everyone.

Good morning.

My first question is around trying to think about the pipeline of projects that you have as you head into 2021. I know that you mentioned that there's clearly been some delays and some stops in stores just across the entire country. Can you give us some sense maybe of what that backlog is looking like for you as we think just not even for the fourth quarter but kind of looking a bit further out there? And then I guess within that too can you give us a bit of color as you look at the current bidding activity? Are there any real shifts in terms of maybe average project size? Or things of that nature that could perhaps kind of shape or influence how we think about future volumes versus AUVs?

Yes, Susan, I believe they are closely related. First, regarding the backlog, our best insight comes from our Architectural Specialty business, where the activity and win rate are quite strong. In fact, we achieved our highest order intake in that segment during the third quarter. There are many opportunities and we're successfully securing them, particularly for projects slated for 2021 and 2022. These projects tend to take longer to finalize due to design considerations. We have seen record order intakes for those years in the architectural specialty area, which is further supported by enhanced bidding activity. While bidding activity was down 21% in the second quarter across all sectors, it improved to a decline of only 10% in the third quarter. The number of projects in the third quarter was down 10%, but the overall project value saw a smaller decrease of 5%. This indicates that larger and medium-sized projects remain ongoing, while smaller, discretionary projects are more frequently being postponed due to cautious decision-making. It’s logical that the smaller projects experience delays compared to larger ones. Thus, we are witnessing an upward trend not only in bidding activity but also in our order rates, enhancing our visibility for the upcoming year.

Yes. No, that color is very helpful. Thank you. And I guess my follow-up question is you mentioned in your commentary that you've gotten the authorization to resume buybacks. Can you give us any color on your appetite for buybacks especially given the current valuation? How you're thinking about capital allocation between buybacks versus maybe M&A or some of the other opportunities that you have?

There has been no change in our capital allocation priorities. This reflects our ongoing strategy of reinvesting in our business for growth. Our recent announcement about our new innovation in healthy spaces is part of this investment focus. We are also investing in our digitalization tools. This remains our top priority. In the third quarter, we completed two acquisitions and are actively pursuing additional opportunities. We are pleased with the progress of these acquisitions, and the team's effort to achieve this in the current environment has been commendable. Our second priority for cash use is to enhance the Armstrong platform with unique capabilities. Our third priority involves returning value to shareholders. With improved clarity on the recession's depth and its impact on markets and our cash position, we feel more confident in addressing this third priority. We have funds available for this purpose after focusing on the first two priorities, as seen in our recent dividend increase and our plans for share repurchases. We will maintain a cautious approach due to ongoing uncertainties for the remainder of the year, so while we are restarting buybacks, we will adopt a prudent strategy at least until year-end.

Got you. Okay. Thank you very much for that color. It’s helpful. Good luck.

You bet. You bet. Thank you, Susan.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Phil Ng from Jefferies. Your question, please.

Hey, good morning everyone. I guess on the mix side of things encouraging to see at least some signs of maybe improvement in the fourth quarter, because you're expecting AUV to be positive. But when we think about 2021, there's different elements on the mix side? Is that going to be a big drag again? And do you have enough on the like-for-like pricing where you think AUV is going to return back to like a low to mid single-digit longer-term target when we think about next year?

Yes, Phil, there hasn't been any change regarding the factors influencing the mix in this industry. We are experiencing a unique combination of market dynamics that is causing uneven behavior across different territories and various types of projects. As we transition into 2021 and return to a sense of normalcy in market dynamics, these same factors will persist. We expect to continue seeing a positive mix within the industry and our business. I want to emphasize that while there are variations in territory and regional mixes, the product mix is also favorable for us. Customers are increasingly opting for our higher value, higher performing products as they make upgrades. This trend naturally affects the mix, and we are actively innovating to keep up with it. Additionally, the new products we announced last night, which come at a premium of 30% to 50% compared to our current offerings, will further enhance our mix as demand for healthier spaces continues to rise into 2021.

That's great color. Actually that was my next question Vic. So thanks for tuning that up. I mean, it seems like a very exciting product. How quickly would you be able to ramp it up and see contribution to your bottom line? Is this going to be a big needle mover next year? And I definitely see the value proposition. But is this a more cost-effective solution for your customers?

This is going to be very cost-effective. And I think this is going to be more than cost-effective in terms of the non-discretionary nature to gain confidence for occupants to come back with these spaces. This is going to be a very easy retrofittable solution without tearing down the grid or driving major renovation. You can swap out ceiling tiles and drive an improvement in the air quality. And that's really what we're after here is some easily retrofittable type products to help people make these changes quickly and get their people back into the spaces. So I think this is going to be the start. And I believe that we'll get some good traction on this in 2021. We're in the process of ramping these products now as we speak.

Okay. Just one last question for me, Vic.

Sure.

Do you see any impact in your business on the plus or negative side with a potential blue sweep scenario with a Biden Presidency and the Democrats controlling the Congress?

I don't think we can make any definitive predictions yet; we'll have to wait and see what happens in the first quarter after the inauguration. However, I believe the dynamics of this business are favorable regardless of which party is in power or who is in the White House.

Okay. Thanks a lot, Vic. Really appreciate it guys.

You bet.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Yves Bromehead from Exane. Your question, please.

Good morning gentlemen. And thank you for taking my questions. Just two on my side. The first one, I just wanted to know if you could comment maybe on the lower demand that you've seen year-to-date in 2020. How much of these projects are just delayed, let's say, and you would expect to see those restarting in Q4 or even 2021? Did you have like a proportion of the probability that you're seeing in your businesses? And I know it's still very early days, but what would be the base case scenario for 2021? Should we expect to recover most of those lost volumes of 2020 into next year? And my second question is actually just on what has been just asked around the Biden and kind of Blue Wave. Coming from a European background where the renovation wave is starting to hit Europe, there's clearly a dynamic where there's a multiplier effect on the energy-saving renovation. So I wanted to know, if you have any sense of what is the current energy-saving renovation today in the U.S.? And where that needs to get to reach de-carbonization let's say by 2050 if Biden does go through? Thank you so much.

Sure. To address your first question about delays versus cancellations, we're continuing to monitor the ratio of each and have not observed many cancellations like we did in the second quarter. Primarily, we are seeing delays, which have now extended into 2021, with minimal delayed activity beyond that. Therefore, we can assume that if these projects do move forward, they are likely to occur next year rather than being canceled. This is something we are carefully tracking. Whether they actually materialize in 2021 will depend on market dynamics and the overall economy influencing those decisions later. For now, they remain delayed, not canceled. Regarding energy, ceilings contribute to energy savings by controlling the air that needs treatment for the occupants' environment. We have long been involved in energy-saving discussions. With one of our recent acquisitions, we have ceiling systems that help regulate the environment through heating and cooling mechanisms integrated within the ceiling. We provide multiple solutions aimed at enhancing energy savings. As we move into this next phase of creating healthier spaces and managing air quality throughout buildings, we believe we will further enhance energy savings by improving HVAC efficiency with our AirAssure ceiling panels. Regardless of the political landscape, we have a significant role to play in the energy savings conversation.

Okay. Thank you so much.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Adam Baumgarten from Credit Suisse. Your question, please.

Thank you for taking my question. Considering that the new construction side is still somewhat lagging as projects are completed, and given the weak starts we've observed over the past few months, when do you anticipate that the recent downturn will begin to impact your results next year?

Yes. I think for what we see in new construction, and it's a very interesting dynamic when you look at the new construction which gets a lot of the headlines, the new construction impact on 2020 business has actually been fairly light. It's been more of the discretionary R&R projects, which you could hold back. And again, when you think about it that way it makes sense that some of these shorter cycle type projects would be held back first. But when you know a ceiling system is 18 months out from a new construction start there's a pretty good lag there for things that are not done this year that will start to show up in the second half of next year and into 2022 on a lag basis. So we continue to expect new construction activity overall to be paused or a headwind to overall demand. I'll remind you though it's 30% of our business. The other 70% is driven by R&R activity. And that's the headwind we really see and feel this year. But I went back and looked at 2008 and 2009 and 2010 what happened during that time frame, when new construction goes negative R&R activity picks up. And although in 2009, we had really a deep drawdown in R&R activity as you would expect, but the following year it bounced back to positive territory. Now whether that happens next year, I think there's some dynamics, the pandemic, the vaccine, there's a lot of things that have to play out. But that's a data point for I think everybody to go back and to look at, and that's how we think about it. New construction again is going to be, I think a headwind for at least a year or so as it lags into the system. R&R is really the driver of the business. And we have some real opportunities there that we're excited about.

Got it. Thanks. And then just switching over to the AirAssure. And you mentioned some of the HVAC savings and given the 30% to 50% premium, can you quantify, why it's worth maybe putting that in outside of the safety benefits obviously, but just from a cost perspective what kind of HVAC savings a building could experience, if they put this product in?

It will depend on the specific HVAC system currently in place, but we anticipate significant savings for HVAC systems. We are collaborating with HVAC suppliers on this development. Many buildings are already at their HVAC capacity limits, so our solution will enhance their efficiency in air collection, allowing them to bring in fresher air and improve air quality. We believe there will be substantial savings and additional capabilities that would otherwise require upgrading the HVAC system. The total savings will vary based on the size of the building and the level of capacity currently used by the HVAC system.

Got it. That was helpful.

Okay. Good. Thanks, Adam.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes from Truist. Your question please.

Thank you. A question on the cost savings program. It looks like I see about $9 million of manufacturing and SG&A on Slide 5 in the Mineral Fiber segment. Is that what was realized in the quarter? Or are there some other numbers hidden in Architectural Specialties or other parts of the income statement?

Brian do you want to take that?

Yes. Sure, Keith. Thanks for the question. Yes that five you're seeing in the quarter on Mineral Fiber is a net number. So there's some additional savings there that are being offset by some of the investments we're making there to bring some of this innovation to market. And the other part of it is down in that SG&A line. And then to your third point really some of it also shows up in AS. So we're on track...

What's the total number in the quarter I guess is the question?

Yes the total was $12 million.

Okay. And I know you lowered it $40 million to $45 million with some of the investments that you were talking about. It still leaves a pretty healthy amount for the fourth quarter, which I'm having a hard time reconciling with the guide, where the margins are pretty weak compared to the fourth. Can you kind of explain what's going on in there?

Vic do you want me to add it.

Go ahead, Brian. Yes.

Keith it's some of the investments we're talking about with the launch of the new products the healthy spaces and some of the digital efforts we're implementing to drive that growth.

Okay. Let me ask a question on a different topic for Vic primarily. You gave us a really good number on the order rates being down 5% in dollars in the quarter which is a pretty big improvement.

That was bid activity.

Are you noticing any signs of increased renovation efforts from businesses as they return to their offices and implement social distancing measures? For instance, are they utilizing your new products to create healthier environments? Is there any indication of this happening, or is it something we should expect in the future?

Yes. So let me correct. The numbers you cited were not order rates but there was a bid activity. So just to be clear, the minus 5% on value is bid activity that we track across all verticals. There's a lot of activity Keith in terms of the renovation required to get the folks back in the spaces. And it's really across all the verticals, as we talk to the architectural design community. There's no big wave that I would point to that's saying it started and it's going to happen in the fourth quarter. That's not what we're seeing. I think this is actually going to be something we're going to see feathered in over the coming quarters as there's different rate and pace of back-to-the-office, back-to-school in various parts of the country. So I really don't anticipate it happening all at once or in a big way. I really see this as a continuation and feathering in of new renovation activity as the market comes all the way back. I think it's a net positive. Clearly when the market gets back, this increased level of renovation will be additive to an overall stable market condition.

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Okay, Keith. Thanks.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David MacGregor from Longbow Research. Your question please.

Yes, good morning.

Good morning, David.

I have a few questions. It was interesting to note that the AUV in Mineral Fiber was positive on a like-for-like basis. I would like you to discuss that in relation to the weakness in the New York market and other major metropolitan markets, where I assume pricing might be more competitive as companies compete for volume. Can you share your observations on the competitive landscape in these different types of markets?

Yes, like-for-like pricing was positive as we implemented a price increase in February, and we've successfully maintained it. Our teams did well to hold onto that pricing during this deflationary period across various territories. I wouldn't attribute this to New York being more competitive; in fact, the markets have consistently remained competitive. They are no more competitive now than they were six months or a year ago. We're continuing to innovate in our services with digital tools and product innovation, which helps us win specifications and effectively distribute those specifications. We are performing well in this environment, and I expect to see positive like-for-like pricing continue in the fourth quarter and into next year. The average unit volume is influenced by a mix of channel and territory factors.

Great. Right. Thanks for that. The key seven markets that you identified last quarter and you discussed briefly this quarter, their recovery contributed how much to the growth this quarter?

We didn't call that out specifically, David but it sequentially improved back to its proportion of the overall sales pie if you will, which is something that was lagging in the second quarter. So we're glad to see it sequentially improve back to that level in aggregate. Again, as I highlighted, New York Metro, a high AUV territory for us continues to lag of those seven and putting additional pressure on our mix and our AUV overall.

Right. The $40 million to $45 million cost containment, what's the carryover benefit to 2021 of getting a full year of that next year?

Brian, I'll let you take that.

Yes. David, we've been pretty consistent that we're going to put those back in. So they're temporary cuts. They're not permitted structural cuts. And so, I expect, those to come back into next year.

Back in. Okay. And lastly, just, I realized it's still early, but as you look forward to 2021, how do you think about raw materials and sort of inflation within that part of the P&L?

It's really hard to call. We're really not out looking some of those dynamics just yet. So it's really hard to say, David, at this point.

Is there any way you could say what you're seeing in the market right now, in terms of conditions and maybe allow us to extrapolate off that?

In our current situation, we're experiencing net deflation.

Okay. Okay, great.

Yes.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI. Your question, please.

Hi. Thanks a lot guys. I have a question regarding the AUV. I know you indicated that it could be up 1% or down 1%, basically flattish for the year. I was curious, what the potential is for that actually to be positive in 4Q? And what the drivers to an eventual return to positive AUV contributing to EBITDA will be like? So not necessarily locking you down to a time frame specifically, but what would be the things that would be driving the AUV drop down to be positive to EBITDA?

Yes, Brian, do you want to take that first part of that?

Sure. Stephen, we're focusing on these seven key territories and some challenges related to the channel mix that we mentioned during the quarter. As those conditions improve and given the situation in the New York Metro, we're still somewhat behind in those key areas, especially considering the high Average Unit Volumes in those markets. As they begin to improve, that will help our fall-through rate and drive a positive Average Unit Volume in Q4, at least at the sales level.

Okay. What about the...

I'm sorry, Steve, go ahead and follow-up. I was going to add a little color to that. Go ahead.

I was just going to say that, how about take? Do you think that could be a positive to EBITDA? And if not in 4Q, like, what would be the dynamics that would drive that return to positive EBITDA contribution from AUV?

Yes.

Yes. Would you like me to take this or would you prefer to?

Go ahead, Brian. Sorry, go ahead.

I still expect it to be somewhat challenging in Q4. We're not providing 2021 guidance yet, but I anticipate seeing sequential improvement in terms of the drop-down situation.

I believe that some of the unusual market dynamics affecting our channel and territory mix will resolve themselves next year as we return to more normal market conditions. After that, the industry dynamics will take precedence, creating opportunities for mix improvements through renovations and specifications, especially as we focus on total acoustics and our new AirAssure products. I remain optimistic that the mix will continue to improve moving forward.

Got it. And then, how about on the capacity side? I think last quarter you had indicated that you had the potential maybe to make reduction shifts or things like that. But I think that at that point you didn't really feel like that was something you wanted to do or it was necessary. Do you still feel like that is something that you don't need to do? Or is that something that you are beginning to implement in your plan?

Well, we did that. Let me be clear. We did reduce our shifts and we rightsized our manufacturing activity to match the demand environment that we're in. And to make sure that we had a healthy inventory level to plan for any potential disruptions. So, no, we did that and we continue to operate very lean and efficiently.

Okay, that sounds good. I apologize for the misunderstanding. Lastly, I find the new products particularly interesting, especially the gasketing, which seems like an excellent idea. I have a couple of questions regarding that. Has this been tried before? I'm curious why this isn’t already an industry standard. Are there any technical issues associated with it? Additionally, is there a marketplace solution for an installation method that achieves similar airflow efficiency without changing the ceiling tiles? Those are my two questions.

Yes. In various healthcare facilities and data centers, we have implemented a gasketed grid system to install the same ceiling tiles. This is the first gasketed ceiling tile available, which allows individuals to retain their existing grid system and retrofit with the new gasketed tiles, achieving a sealed system quickly and affordably. I believe this is a significant innovation for a large installed base that requires retrofitting. We have considerable experience in sealing ceilings for those specialized healthcare scenarios and data centers, and we are addressing the problem in a new way with this first-ever gasketed ceiling tile. It’s very promising, and I think this will enable a cost-effective renovation for schools and offices, and we are eager about its potential.

Sounds like a great idea. Thanks guys.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Justin Speer from Zelman & Associates. Your question please.

Thanks everyone. I want to break down the trends across different verticals. I believe we all have a good understanding of how some of these verticals relate to one another. Throughout the quarter, particularly regarding the tenant improvement aspect of our business, can you discuss how things have trended in areas like office, education, and health care? Additionally, as you engage with distribution contacts, what does the project pipeline look like in these sectors moving forward?

Yes. We observed sequential improvement across all verticals. If you look at the bidding activity, there was some differentiation among the verticals, with education showing stronger activity heading into the summer months this year. Many initiated renovation projects in schools early while kids were on break. However, that activity began to decline earlier in the summer due to the advanced timeline. This was one of the notable differences we identified among the verticals. Overall, we had a solid season in education considering the circumstances, but the timing was slightly off, which was reflected in the bidding activity, showing relative weakness across the various verticals. Nonetheless, we continued to see sequential improvement in each vertical. Transitioning from a decrease of 21% in projects to a decrease of only 10% is a significant improvement.

So if for whatever reason, because things out of your control, the pandemic worsens or maybe the macro deteriorates further and perhaps we see an air pocket emerge in activity because the pipeline for whatever reason dwindles. That SG&A comment you made about some of those costs rolling back, would you potentially suspend that if you were to see things deteriorate on the top line?

Yes. If we experience more government-mandated shutdowns or additional restrictions that significantly decrease our volume back to current levels, we would definitely reassess those costs and consider what we want to scale back. We manage this business to align it with the conditions we face. Currently, we're investing in our business to support growth and our digitalization initiatives. I expect those investments to continue.

That makes sense. And I don't know how much visibility you have in terms of channel inventories. How do those look? Any insights that you have there in your conversations with distributors?

Our distribution partners have done an excellent job servicing our customers in a fluctuating demand environment, and I believe they have adjusted their inventories to align with current demand. As we move forward and observe an improvement in demand, their inventory positions are adapting accordingly. We should expect this trend to continue into the fourth quarter and into next year.

Excellent. Excellent. And then lastly for me just on the project wins that you mentioned in Architectural Specialties. Are those needle movers when juxtaposed against maybe the projects rolling out of backlog? Are they more than offsetting that? Or how should we think about I guess the broader picture with respect to these product wins that you articulated?

Yes. It's a good question. I think that they're definitely needle movers. These are large projects. The Kansas City Airport is a very large project. It's not only Architectural Specialties, but there's Mineral Fiber on that job as well. The projects that we have won and taking orders for this year is equivalent to the same time last year. In the face of the pandemic and as bad as the economy has been, that business has taken in the same amount of orders as it did last year at the same time. So that gives you a flavor of how successful that business is doing against a pretty tough backdrop. And so they're definitely needle movers in terms of the impact that they're going to make on the backlog going into next year.

Excellent. And then the recent acquisitions that you made. You've had a good track record of at least out of the gate revenue synergies as you harvest I guess or as you push those through your funnel and through your network. How should we think about revenue synergy potential for these acquisitions going forward?

Well, I think their historical track record is pretty good. I think we're going to have a nice contribution to both of those businesses being bolted on to a large platform like Armstrong in our go-to-market our distribution channel. Now, I think there's going to be some terrific revenue synergies in both of those businesses as they get integrated into the Armstrong go-to-market platform.

Thanks very much guys. Appreciate it.

Okay, you bet.

Thank you and this does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Vic Grizzle for any further remarks.

I just want to thank everybody for joining us today. Again, third quarter against a very strange and challenging backdrop. I'm very proud of what our team has done in terms of two acquisitions in the quarter. We had record quarter order intake in our Architectural Specialty business and we launched a whole new family of healthy spaces solutions that we're really excited about to help building owners and occupants get back to life and get back to work. So, we're excited about all of these things. And again thank you for joining our call today. We look forward to talking to you next quarter.

Thank you ladies and gentlemen for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.