Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Valco Energy 3rd Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Landis Blackburn, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Welcome to Valco Energy's third quarter 2026 conference call. After I cover the forward-looking statements, George Maxwell, our CEO, will review key highlights of the third quarter. Ron Bain, our CFO, will then provide a more in-depth financial review. George will then return for some closing comments before you take your questions. During our question and answer session, we ask that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up. You can always re-enter the queue with additional questions. We would like to point out that we posted a supplemental investor deck on our website that has additional financial analysis, comparisons, and guidance that should be helpful. With that, let me proceed with our forward-looking statement comments. During the course of this conference call, the company will be making forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and those actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Valco disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. These and other risks are described in our earnings release, the presentation posted on our website, and in the reports we file with the SEC, including our Form 10-K. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. Let me turn the call over to George.
Thank you, Landis. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Over the past two years, we have streamlined and expanded our portfolio with acquisitions, disposals, and drilling campaigns, all while delivering consistently solid operational results. In the first nine months of 2026, we delivered on our strategy with increased production and sales volumes leading to improving financial results. In Q3, we increased our NRI production by over 20% quarter over quarter to just over 20,100 net revenue interest barrels of oil per day or 25,284 working interest barrels of oil per day. We successfully completed the Phase 3 drilling campaign in Gabon, bringing on our fifth well in the program and releasing the rig in early October. The Baobab FPSO successfully completed its refurbishment and in the field resumed production in June as planned, with our first lifting in 2026 occurring in August and the Phase 5 drilling program starting in September. In Egypt, we continued to execute on our drilling campaign. All of these events have led to improving financial results, driven by increases in sales and continued strong pricing. We delivered $71.1 million in adjusted EBITDAX in the third quarter, more than in the entire first half of 2026, thanks in part to bringing CDI back online. We are delivering on our guidance and remain confident in our ability to consistently execute on our strategy, which we believe will deliver additional value to our shareholders. I would now like to go through and provide a quick update on our diverse portfolio of high-quality assets beginning with Courte d'Hoy. We were excited to have production resume in Baobab in June 2026, and in August we had our first lifting occur in CDI since February 2025. As you know, in line with the project timeline, the FPSO at Baobab ceased hydrocarbon operations in January 2025, spent a year being refurbished in Dubai, and returned to Côte d'Ivoire in April 2026. We are very pleased how well the FPSO refurbishment went, and that it was completed within the initial timeline expected. The FPSO refurbishment was undertaken to extend the life of the vessel and to increase its capacity to support the significant development drilling program at Baobab that was kicked off in September. The plan for this program includes four producers, two or three injectors, and two workovers, providing potential meaningful additions to production from the main Baobab field, where we have a 10-year extension of the license to 2038. The programme began drilling on a batch basis the top hole sections of all wells first. The first well is expected to be completed and brought online in early December, with a new well every six to eight weeks following this first well. With that said, production and sales uplift from the drilling programme at Boiobab will not make a significant impact until 2027. Also, an offshore CDI on the CI40 block is the Kisopu Field, another development with significant upside that we are very excited about. In February 2026, Valco and Petrasi elected to participate in the development of the Kisopu Field. We were confirmed as operator with a 60% working interest in the Kisopu Field just 8km from the Baobab Field. We are actively progressing a field development plan that we believe will be completed in the first half of 2027 using new ocean bottom node seismic data that is expected to help de-risk and enhance our evaluation and development plan. Our current assessment has a field with an estimated gross 2C resources of approximately 100 million barrels of oil equivalent and almost 300 million barrels of oil equivalent in place. Finally, in Cote d'Ivoire, we continue to evaluate the subsurface potential of our new exploration block CI-705, which we operate with a 70% working interest. We continue to see encouraging prospectivity on the block in play types proven throughout the Ivorian Basin, including both structural and stratigraphic traps in the Upper Cretaceous and Albion sections. Recent discoveries by both Murphy and E&I nearby and on trend with CI705 provide additional validation of our play concepts and prospectivity. We have met all first exploration phase work commitments on the block and have been approved to proceed to the second exploration phase, which carries a work commitment including seismic reprocessing and drilling of one exploration well. I would like to remind you that two and a half years ago, we had no assets in Côte d'Ivoire and now have established a sizable position in Côte d'Ivoire consisting of a producing asset with upside at Baobab, operatorship of a discovery at Kissipo with plans to develop, and considerable upside potential on a prospective exploration block. We are excited about the prospects of Côte d'Ivoire and their ability to help us achieve our production growth targets over the next several years. Moving to Gabon, a year ago we began our Phase 3 drilling programme. I would like to note that the working production in Gabon in Q3 2025 was 7,118 barrels of oil per day, and in Q3 2026 we grew production to 9,577 barrels per day. This programme was designed to reverse decline and increase production, and as you can see with our Q4 guidance, we expect production to increase further at Gabon with a midpoint of over 10,000 working interest barrels per day. The programme over the past year has brought online four development oil wells and increased production by 2,500 working interest barrels of oil per day, or an increase of around 34%. We also drill the gas well to help us reduce operating costs associated with using higher-priced diesel and adding production uplift to our existing production. With the well-timed benefit of the gas well providing fuel, we are seeing a reduction in operating costs. In addition, we are reviewing the current operating model of the entire field to look for ways to structurally enhance our business to make the field more cost-effective and efficient as we move forward. We expect this process will lead to a reduction in both CAPEX and OPEX moving forward. We released the rig in early October following completion of the Phase III drilling program. We reduced the workover spend from our initial 2026 guidance range of up to $10 million to no spend due to the excellent ESP life. The wells in Iburi continue to perform well with the chemical treatment, and we do not want to take these wells offline to perform maintenance workovers until it is necessary. Furthermore, if we do need to work over these wells, we can use our mobile workover unit that we have in-country to perform the workovers at an expected material cost-saving compared to using a drilling rig. We are now evaluating the results of the drilling campaign and working the subsurface modelling to evaluate future potential drilling at Atatami. In the meantime, we will look to reduce capex spending in Gabon to only essential maintenance for 2027. Regarding our exploration blocks in Gabon, the Niosi Marine and Gaduma Marine, we continue to work with our partners on plans for the two blocks moving forward. We commenced a 3D seismic survey in November of 2025, which was completed in the first quarter of 2026. This survey fulfilled part of the Exploration Work Program commitment for these blocks. Processing of this seismic data has begun, with immediate products arriving and delivery of final volumes expected by May 2027. Given the proximity of these blocks to the prolific producing fields of Itami and Dusifu, we are excited about the future possibilities for these blocks and will continue to mature prospectivity using the new seismic data. Turning to Egypt, we resumed the drilling programme in Egypt in May of this year. We are pleased with the operational performance and efficiency of the drilling programme. The overall production results have driven an increase in production rates that will continue into Q4. We are further expanding the scope of the Egyptian drilling program and now expect to maintain a continuous drilling program in Egypt into the beginning of 2027. The corresponding production uplift can be seen in our increased Egypt guidance with no impact to our overall CAPEX guidance for this year, which Ron will explain in more detail later in this call. We also plan to continue optimizations, workovers and re-completions that are focused on production enhancement. Egypt production remains strong as we continue to invest to drill development wells and delineate opportunities in Gazelat that could open additional prospects in the future. Turning to Equatorial Guinea. In March 2024, we announced the finalisation of documents in Equatorial Guinea related to the Venus Block P Plan of Development. Last summer, we began a front-end engineering design or feed study. The initial feed study is now complete and confirms the technical viability of our plan of development, but also highlights some of the risks and challenges from the shelf location. We have expanded the review to explore more efficient development opportunities through a sub-seed development versus the original shelf development, which would also significantly simplify the drilling operations and well design, and this evaluation is currently underway. We expect our final investment decision to be made before year-end 2026 and remain excited to proceed with our plans to develop, operate, and begin producing from the Discovery in Block P offshore. We believe that the Venus Discovery is an integral part of our future and helps us achieve our goal of more than doubling production organically over the next five years. In closing, we have an outstanding, diversified portfolio of both producing assets and assets with significant upside opportunities. We are delivering on our strategy through the successful execution of our drilling programs. Our third quarter results were very solid, and we believe that with the continued strong pricing through the end of 2026 and into 2027, we plan to build on these positive results. We remain focused on growing production, reserves, and value for our shareholders. I would like to thank our hard-working team who continue to operate and execute our plans. Over the past several years, we have significantly diversified our portfolio, enhancing our capability to generate operational cash flow while returning capital to shareholders and increasing our credit facility capacity. We are well positioned to execute the projects in our enhanced portfolio and our proven track record of success these past few years to instill confidence for our future. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Ron to discuss in more detail our financial results.
Thank you, George, and good morning, everyone. With the production coming back online in Côte d'Ivoire, and the growth from the drilling at Gabon in Egypt, we anticipated good growth in revenue, profitability, and operational cash flow. As George discussed, operationally we are performing very well. Under the third quarter, we saw the impact being a material improvement in our financial results. We generated $71.1 million in adjusted EBITDAX, up 30% from the second quarter. I'd like to discuss some of the factors that resulted in our solid Q3 financial results and discuss how we see these factors impacting results in the near term. Net revenue was up almost $12 million compared to Q2, with sales about 5% higher and realised pricing about 4% higher. Sales were 18,454 NRI barrels of oil per day in Q3, and we had our first lifting in Cote d'Ivoire since Q1 2025. We've also seen strong sales in Gabon and in Egypt due to successful drilling campaigns. Overall production in Q3 was 20,145 NRI barrels of oil per day or 25,284 working interest barrels of oil per day, an increase of over 20% compared to Q2 2026. Turning to costs, even with a slight increase in sales, our production costs for both Q3 on an absolute basis and on a per barrel basis were lower than in Q2 and were at the midpoint of our guidance. Our focus remains on keeping our costs low to enable us to maximise margins and increase our cash flow. But with higher costs driven by the Iran conflict, we may see some inflationary pressure leading to expense increases in the near term. Looking at G&A, our cash in G&A decreased to $7.4 million. The decrease in general in administrative expenses was primarily as a result of a $1.9 million of non-recurring professional service and legal fees that occurred in Q2. Turning to hedging. As I've discussed in the past, our reserve-based lending facility requires us to have a more programmatic hedging program, which is more consistent over a rolling time horizon. Our strategy prioritised downside protection to safeguard cash flow to help fund capital commitments for the Coat of War, Biobab, FPSO refurbishment, the Gabon Phase 3 drilling campaign, debt servicing, and the surety of our Drividan programme. In the past, we generally maintained between 30% to 40% of our production hedged at any period going out as far as 12 months. With the reduction in capital commitments in Q4 and into 2027, we are looking to opportunistically hedge and work with our RBL group to pragmatically hedge. As you know, the market continues to be very volatile. Our hedges had about $22 million in realized losses in the third quarter, with an additional $35 million in unrealized derivative losses as we mark to market the positions. We had about 33% of our guided Q3 working interest boroughs hedged with costless callers. We will continue to monitor the situation and have a baseline forward hedge position and will only look to add when an opportunity event such as a geopolitical shock or spike into 2027. Moving to taxes, in the third quarter, we reported an income tax expense of $20.3 million, which was comprised of a $25.5 million current tax expense and a deferred tax benefit of $5.2 million. Income tax expense included a £4.1 million unfavourable oil price adjustment as a result of the change in the value of the Government of Gabon's allocation of profit oil between the time it was produced on its present marked-to-market liability. In Q1, we had a state lifting in Gabon, which settled our tax position, and we do not see another state lifting in 2026, with our cost pool maximised with the spend on the drilling programme, which is first to be recovered. Similarly, we do not see a state lifting in Cote d'Ivoire in 2026, and in Egypt, the tax barrels are settled monthly from the government's take. Turning now to the balance sheet and the cash flow statement. In Q3, we invested $86.9 million on a cash basis and $83.9 million on an accrual basis in net capital expenditures, which was below the midpoint of our guidance range. This was primarily related to New Wells Drilled as part of the drilling campaigns in offshore Gabon, Cote d'Ivoire and Egypt. Unrestricted cash at the end of the second quarter was $51.3 million. In April 2026, the aggregate borrowing base under the 2025 RBL facility increased to $300 million. We now have $239 million drawn on the credit facility, with net debt of $188 million. As expected, we saw negative free cash flow in 2026 due to the investment we have made in development drilling and the one-time FPSO refurbishment capital expenditure. In 2027, with continued strong commodity pricing, we expect to reduce capital spending profile coupled with positive free cash flow generation later in the year. We believe that we are appropriately leveraged with a growing production across our highly sought-after West Africa and Egypt developmental areas. We enter 2027 in a strong financial and operational position to continue executing our organic growth story and reduce net debt as we prepare to build cash again to execute on our next major capital project. On the past several calls, I've discussed how pleased we have been with the progress made on our Egyptian receivables, and I'm pleased to state that we remain current with our receivables. In Q3 2026, Falco paid another quarterly cash dividend of six and a quarter cents per common share, or $6.7 million. We also announced the fourth quarter dividend payment, which will be paid in December. Let me now turn to guidance, where I will give you some key highlights and updates. As discussed in the past, the strong performance of our drilling campaigns is driving increases in production and sales that we believe will continue into Q4 2026. For Q4 sales, we are expecting the midpoint of guidance to be about 18% higher than the Q3 actuals. This is driven by a number of liftings, cargo sizes, and mix across all of our assets. In Q4, we expect to have three liftings in Gabon, one regular lifting and one smaller lifting at Cote d'Ivoire, which the operator is scheduled to meet the contracting group's domestic market obligation, and strong continued sales in Egypt. We expect our fourth quarter 2026 NRI sales volumes to range between 21,000 and 22,800 barrels of oil equivalent per day. For Q4, we're projecting total production to be in line with Q3, as we see an additional uplift in Gabon and Egypt, offset by slightly lower production in Côte d'Ivoire, due to drilling operations causing parts of the field to be shut in temporarily. For the total company, we are forecasting Q4 2026 production to be between 24,100 and 26,300 working interests BOE per day, and between 18,800 and 20,900 NRI BOE per day. For the full year production guidance, we are confident in the performance of our diversified assets and we are narrowing the ranges for each area to reflect the first nine months of actuals. Our full guidance breakout is in the earnings release and in our supplemental slide deck on our website with production breakout of both working interest and net revenue interest by asset area. We expect our absolute production cost for Q4 to be in the range of $25.50 to $28 per NRI barrel of oil equivalent. This is slightly lower than the Q3, as we are expecting solid sales increasing, with costs also increasing on an absolute basis. For our exploration expense, we are forecasting a range between $3 million and $4 million for Q4. This is primarily seismic processing work in both the CI705, as well as similar processing work by our partner in the NIOSI and GDUMA blocks. In Q2, we dropped the offshore workover guidance to nil for the full year, as the work in Gabon has not been required due to good ESP performance. We expect cash G&A to be in the range of $7.5 million to $9.5 million. Finally, looking at CAPEX, with the Gabon drilling campaign now concluded, we expect Q4 CAPEX to be primarily from the Phase 5 drilling at Biobab and the continued Egyptian drilling. For Q4 2026, our capital spend is projected to be between $55 and $75 million. For the full year capex, we have expanded our capital budget in Egypt to allow us to drill more wells in 2026, and this was done with no overall increase in total company capital expenditure for the year. This will allow Egypt to exit the year at far higher production rates than we originally envisaged in our guidance call in March. In closing, we saw continued improvements in our Q3 financial results that we guided to in August and expect to continue these solid results into Q4 2026. We are forecasting a continued increase in production, sales volumes, and margins, depending on the stability of current Brent pricing, which should produce favourable strong operational cash flow as we upscale our net back from the greater West African mix of barrels in the fourth quarter. We believe we remain well positioned to continue delivering on our strategy of growing production and reserves while adding meaningful value. In the first half of 2027, we forecast continued growth in our production, driven by Côte d'Ivoire Phase 5 drilling and Egyptian drilling campaigns. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to George.
Thanks, Ron. Our 2026 results across our programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon and Egypt demonstrate continued successful execution of our strategy and our commitment to operational excellence. We have delivered strong operational and financial results over the past several years, where we have met or exceeded guidance on a quarterly basis, and we believe that we can continue to meet or exceed our guidance in Q4 and in 2027. We successfully completed a drilling campaign in Gabon and released the rig in early October, having brought online five new wells at Atami, increasing year-over-year working interest production by almost 2,500 bars of oil per day and driving down operating costs. In Côte d'Ivoire, following successful restart of the Baobab field in June, we had our first lifting in August and Phase 5 drilling began in September. In Egypt, we continue to drill development wells that are profitably increasing production and have extended our continuous drilling program into 2027. These results demonstrate the strength of our diverse portfolio across West and North Africa, offering a lower geopolitical risk profile alongside established production and infrastructure, access to global crude markets and significant organic growth potential. Gabon provides a strong cast generative base. Cordova and Egypt are driving near-term production growth. At EG, we have the Venus Development, and in CDI, we have Kisipo, both of which represent the next major catalyst for Valco, with potential to organically double the company's production. Both of these projects have the potential to materially change Valco. We have successfully delivered major infrastructure projects in 2022 in Gabon, and worked closely with our partner, CNRL, to deliver Baobab refurbishment in 2026. In 2027, we expect to begin the early stages of executing on two of those types of projects that will be developed over the next five years. It takes a lot of work to plan, finance, develop, execute, and operate not one but two new major projects while maintaining our ongoing production base. I believe we have earned the credibility over the past several years, having delivered on our commitments to the market and to our shareholders, and we will continue to deliver with the exciting slate of projects we have over the next few years. Our ability to remain focused on successfully executing our strategy is key to growing the company profitably over the remainder of the decade. There are numerous macro events that we cannot control, but the things that we can control, like operating efficiently and cost-effectively, investing prudently, and maximising our production will help us deliver the forecasted growth and profitability for our shareholders and partners. We are actively working to continue to deliver strong results that will fund our successful capital programs and drive growth, all while also returning value to our shareholders through a top quartile dividend. Maintaining solid results, combined with continued attractive pricing, should generate considerable operational cash flow in 2027 and beyond. We are in an enviable position with a much stronger and diverse portfolio of producing assets with expected significant future upside potential. Thank you, and with that, operator, we are ready to take questions.
Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Stéphane Foucault with OCTIS Advisors. Please go ahead.
Good morning, gents. Thanks for taking my questions. So the first one is around realization in Q4, particularly with regard to discount or premium to brands. How do you see that? And that's thinking about probably what you have already saw, lifting of already taken place at the beginning of the quarter, and then the whole dislocation we are currently seeing. So that would be my first question. My following point for Ron, and he's more around, so 2027, we're in free cash flow positive territory. When would you see, again, the heavy capex year? 28, 29, 30? Maybe less than that. Thank you.
Thank you, Stephan. I'll touch on what we see in Q4. Obviously, when we look at the various production levels and areas, we've got different positions and discounts for bread. So, with issues around the freight, as everyone's well aware, the freight costs are increasing considerably, but we have seen Mark discounts to Brent in the Gabon pricing, but I'll let Ron touch on the other areas. Yeah, so, Stefan, you're quite right.
We've had an October listing in Gabon. We actually got a premium to that, so, you know, there's no concerns on any discount in relation to Brent price on that. CDI is also looking very favourable, and that one's planned for November. Outside of that, we have another two lifts in Gabon. Again, it will depend on what freight does. You know, the prices of freight are moving all over the place at the moment based on the availability of tankers. And then we have a small domestic market obligation, lift a small letter with our partner CNR at the end of the year. And that's a co-load for the state with Esquire. So it's going to go up about a 600,000 cargo. So again, it should be decent pricing. The $64,000 question remains, what is freight cost in trying to get those tankers? But I can tell you the October one and the planned CDI large list in November are already priced in, and those are premiums.
Moving on to free cash flow in 2027. Obviously, we'll look at guidance later on going into the beginning of 2027 for the street. But what I would say is we've got the CapEx campaign for phase five that will continue through the first half of the year. And, you know, that's been signposted for some time. And then we'll be in significant free cash flow territory. When do we step up for the next development campaign? Well, that's something that we hope to come to the street with details on quite soon. Obviously, we're in the process of looking at Venus and the Venus development, but I don't see that being a major 2027 burden at this point in time.
So it's more 28, 29, something like that?
I think, sorry, Stefan, so as I mentioned earlier in the call, you know, we're looking at an FID position for the end of this year. When we look at that FID position, if we go back to our market communications in the middle of this year, we basically were highlighting the production for Venus going into late 29, early 30. We are exploring opportunities where, if we get to FID, is it an opportunity to pull forward? So there's multiple areas where we can get rigged, whether we can secure FPSOs, whether we can secure the long lead items that will come into that. So, let me actually look at... When the expenditures will start to hit for Venus, that's something as soon as we get through the FID position, we'll be able to communicate in much more detail. But I think I would say with Ron that there's minimal impact, in fact, probably no impact in 2027 when we come to the development of Venus. But exactly which period it falls beyond that is difficult to say at the moment. Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from David Round with Stiefel. Please go ahead.
Thanks, guys. Actually, just on what you're talking there, so on the Venus FID, can you just talk about the critical path items towards achieving that in Q4? And then I think you alluded to it there, and I think you alluded to it in the presentation. Are you able to expand on the work that is going on behind the scenes in terms of sort of the bits and pieces that are going in to help you form your decision around development concept?
Yeah, as you're aware, David, thanks for the question. As you're aware, we've published what the original plan of development was, which was basically off-the-shelf drilling and long-reach wells. We've been working. It's considerably hard to look at more efficient and drilling from a vertical position, which makes the development completely subsea. So what we have been looking at is, given the amount of activity there is in the industry right now, is looking at the opportunities for FPSOs, looking at the timing and opportunities for the drill ships, and in particular, the timing of long lead items such as the trees and well heads, But at any point when you place orders, it's looking at between 16 to 18 months. So when we're looking at what are the key works that are going on right now, there are two key aspects that are happening right now. One is the completion of the engineering interface, which we've more or less completed, the documentation around the revised POD, and having that revised POD delivered to a board with the economics and financial solutions at the various oil price scenarios. So we have the sensitivity around to give us security around the project. And at that point, we then deliver that to the government to get the amended POD approved so we can then go forward and execute. So we are in a position right now where, and I made the statement earlier, that our commitment towards an announcement on Venus with the FID is imminent within 2026. We're comfortable with that, and the actual authority to go ahead will then depend on the government's position on approving the amended POD. However, as you would expect, we haven't been doing this in isolation, and we would expect a rapid approval of that POD as soon as we submit it.
Okay, that's really helpful. And my follow-up, please, just on Egypt.
With the drilling program continuing into 2027, can you give us an indication of what the profile there looks like? Are we talking about offsetting declines? Could we see further growth on the back of that program, please? I'll let Thor answer that one.
Yeah, it's essentially a resting decline and an increase.
Sorry, I think I lost you there for a bit, but it sounded like you're saying a rest in decline is the main priority there.
Yeah, increasing production as well, yes.
I think what Thor's getting to, David, is it will be an increase in production as we continue this well program through the end of this year. And we'll be looking, obviously, to maintain that and a rest decline going into 2027.
And I think we mentioned it when I said earlier in the call that the other opportunities were just about to commence drilling our commitment well in Gazelat, which, you know, could open a whole new play for us if it's successful.
Okay. We're good. Thanks, Joe.
Operator
The next question comes from Jeff Robertson with Water Tower Research. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, George. And Baobob, can you talk a little bit about what you would anticipate the impact of the new water injectors to have on production and mitigating decline?
Well, the water injectors, the new water injectors that are within the program at the moment are there to support the production of the new production wells. So we personally anticipate that that pressure support is going to not enhance production but maintain the expected production curves that we forecast for the new wells. There are existing injectors into the reservoir that support the existing production wells, and you can see that when we look at the BSNW numbers coming out from Baobab, it has very, very low BSNW numbers. So the water injection is doing its job. It's not breaking through and coming back to surface, so it is giving the pressure support required to maintain the production profiles. To answer your question directly, we don't anticipate a huge uplift in production from the new injectors, but the new injectors are there to support the profile for the new wells.
And in Egypt, I think you alluded to continuing activity into the first half of 2027. What goes through the thought process is to maintain a program there, and how much opportunity do you have? Um, already identified that you could add to add for add new wells offset production and maybe maybe even grow it.
Yeah, we've got a, I guess, a portfolio of opportunities there to take this out for another three years already identified. That essentially maintains production and slightly increases production over time.
Operator
The next question comes from Bill DeZellum with Tietan Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and congratulations on the great production increase. Would you please remind us, or maybe this is new information, but I need help understanding with CI705. That you will be required to relinquish 25% of the blocks area. Would you walk through the dynamics of that and the puts and takes behind that, please?
Yeah, I mean, I'm trying to recall we've got a new map of 705 on the slide deck, but if you could have visited, it certainly is in one of our slide decks. So 705 is a very large block. The block extends from the beach down to about 2,500 meter water depth. So when we look at going to the next phase, which we have committed to and we have received approval from the government for, when we look at that, there is a requirement to relinquish 25%. Now, what we've looked at is in the shallow area near the beach, the geology there is... More of a structure that is almost guaranteed not to be hydrocarbon bearing. It's more of a granite shell. And if you look at slide 8 on the deck, you'll see that darker blue shaded area next to the beach. That is the 25% area that we've relinquished. The prospectivity on that particular area we see is not just negligible but close to zero. So we're not relinquishing any opportunity for further development. We're linking an area that doesn't have very low geological prospectivity.
And, George, just to understand the reason behind that, the government would prefer not to have any risk of development too close to shore, and so they're asking for that acreage back. Is that essentially the back story?
No, absolutely not. I mean, it is a normal requirement from an exploration block in many of the jurisdictions in Africa that you relinquish 25%. That primarily is to allow the government to go and relicense that area to another operator. So we take the opportunity to look at the lowest levels of prospectivity in those licensed areas that we have to make a relinquishment. And on this case, this just happens to be the area next to the beach. It could have been the deep water area. However, we see prospectivity in the deep water area. So it's not related to nearshore development positions.
Great. Thank you for the remedial question.
Operator
Again, if you have a question, please press star, then 1. We now have a follow-up from Jeff Robertson with Water Tower Research. Please go ahead.
Thank you, George. Just to follow on Block 705, can you share in your caller on when an exploration well might be drilled on that block based on your VALCO exercise or moving on to the next phase?
Yeah, I can. So, we've got a commitment in the next phase to drill the well. We are currently going through and completing our seismic interpretation and analysis, and I think, as I mentioned in the previous call, we took three seismic vintages and combined them together to get a better look at the geological structures. Now, we currently, and I think you can probably see them, you can't see them in the map, but you can see the areas in the map with slide eight where we can see structures of interest both in the shallow, mid-case, and deeper water sections of the block. What we have to determine is, at the moment, is which of those three or four areas that we're excited about contain the highest prospectivity for success. Once we've completed that evaluation, given the disparity in water depths, some of the opportunities are sitting at 150 metres and some of those opportunities are sitting close to 2,000 metres. And of course, as you'd appreciate, that is a completely different type of operation, a completely different type of rig. So once we determine which has the highest prospectivity for us, we'll then go and search a drilling unit that's suitable to work in the water depths that we select. So when I'm looking at those timings and I'm thinking of those interpretations, I'm well into 2028 before I can see any drill bits spinning on this. On the prospects going from
shallow to deep water, would a shallow water prospect high-grade what you see in deep water and, in essence, an extension of the geological system you're looking at?
No, they're not connected. I wouldn't say they're not connected at all. What we're looking at right now is as you move from west to east on 705, there's a correlation with the geological structures that come across towards Baobab and then into the discoveries with Baleen, et cetera, with E&I. So it's not necessarily linked to water depth because we have to link to the geological time and that can move in the water depth structure. But no, as you go from the beach...
Geological structures for us.
Operator
The next question comes from Jay with Weiland Management. Please go ahead.
Jay
Analyst — Weiland Management
Hi, fellas. Two questions. First, on the EBITDAX in the quarter of a little over 70, am I correct in assuming that's pretty much the floor going forward for the next couple quarters? Obviously, pricing is a factor in there, but other than that, are we looking at that as the floor moving ahead?
Well, what I'd say to that, Jamie, is that, you know, obviously, guidance is out there for Q4. Obviously, very strong sales, very strong production levels of cost base are going down. I see growth in that EBITDAX between Q3 and Q4, depending on price. But my modelling's, I've got a full year average, a Brent at 95, and I'm seeing very good growth between Q3 and Q4.
Jay
Analyst — Weiland Management
Okay, and secondly, on the taxes we are paying, what are we paying in Gabon and Cote d'Ivoire, given we have the cost oil in those places, and how long will we be relatively tax-free in each of those locations?
Yeah, and both of them, we only pay the proper oil back barrels, so there is no tax as such. We had a state listing for Gabon in Q1 this year, and we won't have another state listing until 2027. Now, the positive news in relation to the drilling campaign in Gabon is that because commodity prices have held so high, we'll probably be through that cost bull into Q1 in 2027. So we'll be back on to the position where they will have a higher profit barrel split each month, depending on how the expenditure goes and what we've got upcoming in 2027. For CDI, when that cross-spool is basically at peak level through that FPSO rebuild, and obviously we've got the phase-wide drilling, phase-wide drilling, we'll continue right through until the second half of 2027. And, Jamie, our models at the moment, and you've got to look at sort of long-term pricing on there, we're seeing that one basically maximized for about a three-year period. So you'll have a minimal state listing for CDI probably for the next three years.
Okay, thank you. Thank you, Kim.
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to George Maxwell, CEO, for any closing remarks.
Thank you very much, Operator. Obviously, we've had a very strong quarter, and we're forecasting a strong quarter again to end 2026. As I mentioned earlier in the call, we've got some exciting development opportunities within our organic portfolio, and we've managed to progress some of those in the call today with the information around Venus and the information around CI705. The other key development that you're all aware of that comes in a few years will be the Kisopo development on CI40, again, where Valko is the operator. We've got some exciting projects and activities going on right now with the drilling performance in Egypt, which has been an extremely strong performance during 2026, and we see that continuing in 2027 and in 2028. And I'll just remind everyone, these are low cost, high impact wells, five to 700 barrels a day of the new wells coming in for one and a half million dollars per well and delivering within 20 days on each well. So high impact wells. And in addition to that, we've got the high volume, high margin wells coming in on CDI through the phase five drilling campaign. And as the top whole sections have all been drilled, we'll start to see the delivery of these wells in rapid succession, one commencing towards the end of November, and then we'll see them coming in in January and March, and therefore, so exciting opportunities ahead, increases in production ahead, and with the high oil prices, obviously, forecasted increases in profitability. We have been through a significantly heavy capex phase. You can see us coming out of that towards the second quarter of 2027, and then being significantly cast generative into the second half of 2027. So again, we've proven how our ability to execute these projects efficiently and maintain the high production levels and create a portfolio for growth, As I mentioned earlier, through to the end of the decade. So I'd like to thank everyone for joining the call, and I look forward to talking to you again in our 10K call in March. Thank you very much.
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
