Nicholas Investment Partners, LP
3Q 2024
Open investor letter
MOD · Modine Manufacturing Co
$148.44
-1.15 (-0.77%)
At close · Oct 20
Return incl. dividend (before tax)
Market Cap
$7.95B
Shares
53.11M
Volume · Oct 19
981.98K
Avg daily vol (3M)
1.43M
Price & Indicators
20d MA
50d MA
200d MA
Earnings
Filing
Insider
Congress
Investor day
Close$149.59
Open$155.13
Day$149.04–156.23
52W close$119.68–306.89
Avg vol 30d1.4M
Short int3.1M · 5.9% float · 2.1d
Short vol50%
Last earningsJul 30, 2026
DataJan 2020–Oct 2026
Filing10-Q · Jul 30
Up next
filed Jul 30, 2026
call held Jul 30, 2026
Metrics snapshot
Useful current figures from the complete screener profile.
Revenue (TTM)
$3.37B
Trailing 12 months
Net income (TTM)
$143.80M
Trailing 12 months
Revenue growth YoY
+28.0%
Year over year
Operating margin
10.1%
Trailing 12 months
P / E (TTM)
55.8
Trailing earnings · reciprocal yield 1.8%
FCF yield
1.3%
TTM · current market cap
Return on invested capital
16.1%
Trailing 12 months
Net cash
−$434.50M
Latest balance sheet
Dividend yield
—
Trailing 12 months
Shares change YoY
+0.6%
Year over year · more shares
Price change (1Y)
-2.7%
Trailing year
Short interest
5.9%
Latest settlement · 2.1 days to cover
Quarterly results
* Q4 derived as the full year minus Q1 to Q3.
AI Brief
Q1 FY27 earnings call · Jul 30, 2026
Q1 FY27
TL;DR. Modine delivered 28% sales growth led by Data Centers (+90%) and Commercial HVAC (+22%), with adjusted EPS up 44%, but Data Center margins were pressured by supply chain shortages and performance declined in Performance Technologies; the company reaffirmed its full-year FY27 outlook for 20-35% sales growth and $650-680M adjusted EBITDA.
Bullish
- + Total sales grew 28% to $874.1M and adjusted EPS rose 44% to $1.53 on strength in Data Centers and Commercial HVAC.
- + Data Centers revenue jumped 90% with adjusted EBITDA up 27% and a third consecutive record order intake, nearly doubling backlog.
- + Company reaffirmed FY27 guidance of 20-35% sales growth and $650-680M adjusted EBITDA, implying a fifth consecutive year of record results.
- + Spin-off and merger of Performance Technologies with Gentherm remains on track to close in calendar Q4 2026, with key regulatory milestones completed.
Bearish
- − Data Centers adjusted EBITDA margin fell 730 bps to 14.8% on supply chain shortages, excess labor, and unfavorable overhead absorption.
- − Total gross margin declined 340 bps to 20.8% with lower margins in all three segments.
- − Performance Technologies sales fell 3% with adjusted EBITDA down 3% on weak automotive and commercial vehicle demand and tariff/metal cost pressures.
- − Commercial HVAC adjusted EBITDA margin fell 220 bps to 15.9% on unfavorable mix and acquisition integration inefficiencies.
- − Q1 free cash flow was a $5.0M use of cash, down $5.2M year-over-year due to higher capex and other working capital items.
- − Data Center segment leadership change with departure of data center head Art Laszlo, with CEO Brinker assuming interim leadership.
From the call
AI-generated from the earnings call and 8-K · may contain errors · not investment advice
Mentioned in fund letters
Equibles Rating
blended score · not investment adviceOverall
Sell
SellHoldBuy
Technical
Sell
Momentum
Weak
Sentiment
Neutral
Fundamentals
Weak
Quant / Vol
Very High
Market backdrop
VIX 18.4 · elevated
Equity put/call 0.55
Technical
price trend
50 / 200-day cross
No cross
Price vs 200-day avg
−31%
below
Price vs 50-day avg
−19%
below
RSI (14)
30
neutral
MACD trend
Negative
52-week position
16%
mid-range
Volume (OBV)
Confirms
volume backs price
Momentum
relative strength
1-month return
−24%
trailing
6-month return
−37%
trailing
YTD return
+12%
this year
Relative strength
−45%
vs S&P · 6-mo
Sentiment
smart money
Trend (MA cross)
No cross
50d $186 › 200d $216 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow
Distributing
70 of 644 funds reported for Sep 30 · net -413.3K sh shares · +9 new
Insider flow
Distributing
Net -$776.4K over 90 days · 100% sells
Short interest
Falling
5.86% of float · ▼ -7.5% MoM · 2.1 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Multi-yr high
644 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support
Squeeze score
51
elevated · 0–100
Fundamentals
Revenue growth
−10%
Y/Y
Gross margin
54%
expanding
EPS growth
−34%
Y/Y
Free cash flow
$105.4M
Valuation
P/E 55.8
rich
Balance sheet
$364.6M
net debt
Quant / Vol
risk profile
Volatility
71%
annualized · 1-yr
Max drawdown
−51%
past year
ATR
7.1%
of price · 14-day
Blended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.
Guidance & track record
Latest guidance
· from the Earnings Call filed Jul 30, 2026
fiscal 27
Total company sales
Maintained
20% – 35%
Jul 29, 2026
20% – 35%
changed to
Jul 30, 2026
20% – 35%
Data center segment sales
Maintained
60% – 80%
May 27, 2026
60% – 80%
changed to
Jul 30, 2026
60% – 80%
Commercial HVAC segment sales
Maintained
5% – 10%
May 26, 2026
5% – 10%
changed to
Jul 30, 2026
5% – 10%
Free cash flow as a percentage of sales
Maintained
4% – 6%
May 27, 2026
4% – 6%
changed to
Jul 30, 2026
4% – 6%
this year
Commercial HVAC sales
5% – 10%
Guidance from company 8-Ks · delivered figures from as-reported statements · no analyst estimates involved.
Technicals
trend & momentum for long-term holders Sell
50 / 200-day cross
No cross
Neutral
Price vs 200-day avg
−31%
Bearish
Price vs 50-day avg
−19%
Bearish
RSI (14)
30
Neutral
MACD trend
Negative
Bearish
52-week position
16%
Neutral
Volume (OBV)
Confirms
Neutral
Market signals — smart money & positioning
Mixed
Trend (MA cross)
No cross
50d $186 › 200d $216 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow
Distributing
70 of 644 funds reported for Sep 30 · net -413.3K sh shares · +9 new
Insider flow
Distributing
Net -$776.4K over 90 days · 100% sells
Short interest
Falling
5.86% of float · ▼ -7.5% MoM · 2.1 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Multi-yr high
644 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support
Price context
position in its 52-week range
Range low $120
Now $150 · 16%
Range high $307
vs 200-day avg -31%
vs 50-day avg -19%
Illustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.
Key metrics
the company's own KPIs, from written earnings releases and filings| Metric | Latest | Period | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditures: Commercial HVAC | $6.4M | Three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| Capital expenditures: Corporate | $0.9M | Three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| Capital expenditures: Data Centers | $30.9M | Three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| Capital expenditures: Performance Technologies | $8.2M | Three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| Depreciation and amortization expense: Commercial HVAC | $8M | Three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| Depreciation and amortization expense: Corporate | $0.4M | Three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| Depreciation and amortization expense: Data Centers | $5.4M | Three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| Depreciation and amortization expense: Performance Technologies | $6.9M | Three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| Total capital expenditures | $46.4M | Three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| Total depreciation and amortization expense | $20.7M | Three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| treasury shares purchased for tax withholding | 219,667 | the first quarter of fiscal 2027 filing | — |
Figures exactly as the company stated them in writing · click a metric with a to chart its history · period links open the stating document · "filing" marks figures stated in the 10-K/10-Q · YoY needs an exactly comparable prior-year period
Versus peers
Auto Parts — same industry group| Company | Mkt cap | YTD | Rev growth Y/Y | P/E | Short % shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MOD
this stock
Modine Manufacturing Co
|
$7.95B | +12.0% | -9.6% | 55.8 | 5.9% |
|
ORLY
O Reilly Automotive Inc
|
$72.05B | -2.3% | +6.4% | 28.3 | 3.0% |
|
AZO
Autozone Inc
|
$50.67B | -8.7% | +2.4% | — | 3.2% |
|
SMTOY
Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd/Adr/
|
$39.81B | — | — | — | 0.0% |
|
NGKSF
NGK Spark Plug Co., Ltd.
|
$20.03B | +18.4% | — | — | 0.5% |
Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding
At a glance
key data from every sectionOwnership
Short & Settlement
Smart Money
Financials
Filings
Performance
| 5D | 20D | 120D | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOD | -13.3% | -24.3% | -36.9% | -20.1% | +12.0% |
| SPY | -1.5% | -0.9% | +7.7% | +0.5% | +12.4% |
| vs SPY | -11.8% | -23.4% | -44.6% | -20.6% | -0.4% |