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Earnings call · FY2025 Q2
Executive readout · one minute
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Confident
Net tone +62 · moderate hedging
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| Metric | Period | Guided | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
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Adjusted EPS
full year 2025
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$1.87 – $1.89 | Non-GAAP |
How the reported period landed and where the business moved.
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Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Bella, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Q2-225-9-Source-Earnings conference call. All lines have in place a mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dirkus Chopra, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.
Thank you, Bella. Good morning and welcome to NICEHORS' second quarter 2025 investor call. Joining me today are President and Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Yates, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Sean Anderson, Executive Vice President of Technology, Customers, and Chief Commercial Officer Michael Lewers and Executive Vice President and Group President of NiceHorse Utilities, Melody Birmingham. Today we'll review NiceHorse's financial performance for the second quarter and share updates on operations, strategy, and growth drivers. We'll open the call for your questions after our prepared remarks. Slides for today's call are available in the investor relations section of our website. Some statements made during this presentation will be forward-looking. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements. Information concerning such risks and uncertainties is included in the risk factors and MDA sections of our periodic SEC files. Additionally, some statements made on this call relate to non-GAAP earnings measures. Please refer to supplemental slides, segment information, and full financial schedules for information on the most directly comparable GAP measure and a reconciliation of these measures. With that, I'll turn the call over to Lloyd.
Good morning, everyone. Let's begin on slide three. At NYSORCE, our mission remains clear and consistent, deliver safe, reliable energy that drives value to our customers. We do this through disciplined capital deployment, operational excellence, and fostering constructive regulatory relationships. We believe these fundamentals will continue to drive strong results, balance sheet strength, and a dependable dividend. These principles form the cornerstone of NISORS's business strategy, consistently providing excellent value to shareholders. By focusing on regulated utility operations in high-quality regions, maintaining diversity across areas and energy types, and disciplined capital investment, NYSource continues to excel. Turning to our key priorities on slide four, our constructive regulatory foundation is further evidenced having received final orders in Virginia and Indiana this quarter. Our ongoing focus to refine our operations through AI efficiency and continuous improvement initiatives is transforming the way we work. We're pleased to report second quarter adjusted EPS of $0.22, bringing our year-to-date total to $1.19. This performance keeps us firmly on track to deliver on our full-year commitment. As a result, we are narrowing our 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to the upper half of the previously stated range of $1.85 to $1.89. Let's move to slide five. Our operational excellence differentiates us. We are rapidly advancing our internal AI capabilities to transform how we operate and create a sustainable competitive edge at NISORS. Our work management intelligence solution is now fully deployed across all NIPSCO and Columbia operating companies, delivering up to 24% improvement in field productivity, equivalent to more than 83,000 incremental work hours. through smarter, analytics-driven scheduling, and greater efficiency and dispatch time. Building on this success, we are expanding AI into other critical areas of the business. In supply chain, we have launched a generative AI-powered analytics initiative to transform procurement processes, unlocking greater efficiency and deeper insights by leveraging the full scale of the NISORS platform. We are also exploring how AI can support system reliability and improve storm response during severe weather events. AI and analytics are becoming foundational to how we deliver value. We remain committed to scaling these capabilities to optimize performance, elevate service, and support our long-term strategic goals. Using our advanced mobile leak detection capabilities to address large-volume leaks across our territory, we completed 9,966 miles of leak survey in the second quarter, bringing our total miles driven to 18,665 year-to-date, exceeding our goal. We also launched the final phase of our work in asset management, or WAM. This marks a major milestone in our digital transformation. The WAM program delivers enterprise impact reaching nearly 5,000 end users. It has converted over 500 million records and integrated data from 23 host systems, thus underscoring the scale and complexity of this initiative. We have now successfully standardized how we manage fieldwork and assets across the enterprise, improving asset visibility, streamlining scheduling, and enabling real-time decision-making. On slide 6, we continue to make strong progress on our regulatory agenda. Since our last call, our Virginia rate case was approved. The final order authorized a $40.7 million revenue increase and a 9.75 ROE with rates already in effect. This outcome supports $442 million in investments from 2023 through 2025, including critical safety, compliance, and reliability capital additions. It also reflects our continued ability to work constructively with stakeholders to deliver timely and balanced outcomes. In Indiana, our NIPSCO electric rate case was approved in June, providing $257 million in revenue uplift. This marks our seventh settlement in the last 10 years across both electric and gas businesses in the state. These outcomes reinforce the strength of our stakeholder relationships and the predictability of our regulatory environment. Our work in Pennsylvania continues to demonstrate the value of our risk reduction strategy in alignment with stakeholders. We continue our track record of constructive regulation working through our rate case, expecting a final order in the fourth quarter. Building on our regulatory momentum, we are also advancing initiatives that support broader economic development. These efforts strengthen our existing communities by expanding the customer base and helping to distribute fixed costs more efficiently. For example, our team strategically revitalized a dormant point of delivery station in Skippers, Virginia, unlocking the capacity to support two new industrial customers. Both companies are leaders in sustainable innovation, one transforming municipal waste into renewable energy and the other repurposing coal ash through advanced recycling processes this initiative not only reactivates critical infrastructure but also drives forward environmentally responsible industrial growth nipsco continues to drive strategic growth across the service territory supporting a diverse range of new developments in advanced manufacturing logistics, and technology. Notable projects include GITech's first U.S. manufacturing facility in Merrillville, Slate's automotive 1.4 million square foot electric truck plant in Warsaw, and FedEx's $60 million investment in new distribution center in Gary, collectively projected to generate over 2,600 jobs. These investments underscore the state's emergence as a hub for innovation, sustainability, and workforce development. Now before I hand it off to Shawn, I want to give you an update on our strategy to support data center development in Northern Indiana. Our application to the IURC to support the GenCo operating model remains under review and the settlement modification on July 18th was further evidence of our ongoing efforts efforts to address stakeholder concerns. We continue to believe GenCo offers a compelling option to meet data center needs while also driving differentiated value to the region, including our existing customers. We still expect an order in the third quarter. Regarding our data center engagement, we continue to have constructive dialogue with a range of counterparties interested in the compelling fundamentals which our service territory can provide for data center investment. We know well the state of Indiana is great for energy development. We are excited about the prospects our strategy can provide to new customers and the growth it can bring to the state and our local communities. Our team is very focused on maximizing this opportunity for the many stakeholders involved, our existing customers, our communities, our policymakers, and of course, our shareholders. We remain hard at work to convert this opportunity into a reality and continue to believe we are on track. Sean, I'll now turn it over to you.
Thanks, Lloyd. I'd like to start on slide seven. Our generation transition began in 2019 with a launch of a multi-year strategy to enhance energy capacity and improve our energy footprint in Indiana. As part of this initiative, we executed a series of strategic projects that have significantly expanded our renewable energy portfolio. This includes short-term contracted capacity resources, expanded demand-side management programs, solar facilities, battery storage, and new natural gas peaking resources. Today, the portfolio is nearly complete, with Gibson approaching finalization and Templeton Wind progressing according to schedule, on track for commercial operation in 2027. We are proud to report we've been able to deliver these investments on time and within budget, a testament to our disciplined planning and execution. Our ability to successfully execute this large-scale, multi-phase initiative not only demonstrates our operational excellence, but also reinforces our confidence in tackling complex endeavors, particularly when called upon to enhance the safe and reliable energy delivery to our communities. With the same strategic rigor and commitment to execution, we are well-positioned to deliver resilient infrastructure which supports increasing energy demands while managing stakeholder needs. With this in mind, I'd like to briefly address two policy related items which relate to our financial strategy and our infrastructure development plans. First, the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill does not impact our renewable development project plans. The remaining project scheduled to come online after 2025 is Templeton, with a commercial operation date in 2027, and importantly, it still qualifies for tax credits under IRC Section 45. Second, as we discussed in our Q1 earnings call, we remain on track to retire Schaefer by the end of 2025 and Michigan City by the end of 2028. We are continuing to work with policymakers to evaluate alternatives to this plan, including the potential to utilize these facilities on an extended timeline. We'll work closely with federal and state regulators to ensure we make decisions that are in the best interest of our customers and all stakeholders. Our capital investment outlook shown on slide eight emphasizes the flexibility across our portfolio as we assess the best fit plans for our stakeholders. Our 19.4 billion dollar five-year capital plan remains diversified and executable. We are not reliant on any single project or technology. Our growth across six states demonstrates the strength and diversification of investment driving our best-in-class development plans. In addition to the substantial electric generation investments I highlighted a moment ago, 48 percent of our base plan is attributed to gas system hardening, supporting the modernization of our gas infrastructure. Our ability to allocate capital across states and between gas and electric enables NISORS to optimize recovery and respond dynamically to evolving needs. Additionally, we continue active engagement to advance the commercial development of over two billion dollars of identified upside projects and look forward to sharing a more comprehensive update during our third quarter plan refresh. Beyond these plans, slide nine highlights our incremental investment opportunities, data center generation and T&D facilities, MISO transmission, PHMSA compliance and more. These are not included in our base or upside plans but represent meaningful long-term value creation opportunities. We are working to commercialize these initiatives while building the investment thesis with stakeholders to optimize the value these opportunities can create. Turning to slides 10 and 11, our second quarter adjusted earnings per share was 22 cents and one penny above the same period last year. Year-to-date adjusted EPS is $1.19 up 13 cents from the same period last year. This growth is driven by strong performance in both our NIPSCO and Columbia segments, which continue to outperform expectations. Our commitment to operational excellence through initiatives like Project Apollo and WAM has enabled our businesses to deliver consistent and high-quality results. We are reaffirming all long-term financial commitments on slide 12, 6 to 8% annual adjusted EPS growth, 8 to 10% rate-based growth, and 14 to 16% FFO to debt through 2029. Additionally, we are narrowing our 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to the upper half of the range. We've seen growth in our economies driving tailwinds into year-to-date results from increased customer count and usage as well as constructive financing success and regulatory execution. Our plan is built on a realistic foundation and modest demographic growth assumptions. We are seeing strong tailwinds across our jurisdictions. For example, metro growth in Columbus, Ohio was 38 percent higher than the national average last year, and we're observing similar trends in other parts of our service territory. Over the trailing 12-month period ending in June, we observed customer growth at nearly 1% in our electric business and 0.6% in our gas business, both surpassing our forecast. Let's turn to slide 13. In the second quarter, we advanced our financing plans with the issuance of $1.65 billion of senior notes. This builds on our first quarter activity and positions us well to meet our 2025 funding needs while maintaining our 14 to 16 percent FFO to debt target. Over the summer, S&P, Moody's, and Fitch each completed their annual credit reviews and reported no changes to ratings and maintaining stable outlooks which reflect the strong credit profile of NYSource. We believe the successful refinancing of our $1.25 billion August maturity effectively eliminates any near-term refinancing risk. This proactive step not only secures our capital structure, but also reinforces our financial flexibility and stability. With this transaction behind us, our forward-looking debt profile is significantly de-risked, and we now face minimal refinancing exposure in the foreseeable future. This positions us to focus on strategic growth initiatives with confidence backed by a strong and resilient balance sheet. We use practical interest rate assumptions in our plan despite a persistent high-rate environment, and economic growth across our service territories continues to advance. These fundamentals give us confidence in our 2025 earnings outlook and leaves NYSource well positioned to deliver strong financial results as we narrow to the upper half of our 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range. We continue building a track record of execution and growth on slide 14. Our commitment to investors, employees, customers, and all our stakeholders is central to everything we do. Our regulatory execution, year-to-date financing activity, and thoughtful investment plans position us well for 2025, and we expect we'll continue across the plan horizon. Even with this upward trajectory and guidance for 2025, we continue to project an annual 6-8% growth rate, the value of which compounds through our plan horizon with continued outperformance. 9Source offers investors a diversified and fully regulated utility with the opportunity to invest in programmatic gas infrastructure and long-term energy transition for a fully integrated electric business. The emerging opportunity to support unprecedented energy development and power demand resulting from robust economic development, onshoring, as well as new data center developments truly differentiates the value proposition relative to many alternatives in the marketplace today. And with that, we'll open the line for questions.
At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Julianne DeMolin-Smith with Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, team. Thank you guys very much for the time. I appreciate it. Nicely done. Can you hear me okay?
Good morning, Julianne. We hear you fine.
Hey, excellent. Hey, look, if I can, I'm just trying to marry up some of the comments from your call here. You know, given how fast the data center market is evolving, and given the comments you just made about the Columbus metro area, for instance, you know, amongst other service territories here, how are you thinking about that opportunity, especially in the NIPSCO territory? Your load forecast, your 24 IRP, could you potentially view that as stale at this point? And how do you think about the scale and scope of the opportunity, especially since it hasn't fully come together yet? Is it, you know, is there an upward bias to the numbers there, of the 2.6, for instance?
So let me, wait, that was a lot of questions in that one question. Let me start there. I wouldn't characterize this as an upward bias in the numbers, first of all. So I think the way to think about this is there's a huge demand for data centers in northern Indiana, and that hasn't backed off at all. What I'll tell you is that we're taking the time to really execute this opportunity in a thoughtful and disciplined manner. And we got it by four principles, and I've talked about these before, right? Protect the existing customer base, serve new customers with speed and agility, Earn an appropriate adjusted return for our shareholders and maintain NISORC's financial integrity. You know, I've talked about this being a 2025 event. I talked about that in the fourth quarter of last year. And as I said in my script, we're very focused on that. And I believe we're right on track. We're where we need to be with respect to this opportunity. easy. And when we have something to tell you, it'll be comprehensive, and we'll get that to the market as soon as possible. We'll be very transparent with that. So that's where we are right now.
Yeah, and Julie, maybe I'll just add one bit, which is we have seen demand across the gas footprint in Ohio and Virginia specifically for pipeline expansions to serve on-site generation for data centers. Those inquiries continue to come in, and we continue to work collaboratively with our states and with our communities as there's a lot of excitement to expand the infrastructure development across all of our states.
Got it. And then if I can vary that up a little bit with the conversation on timing, right? Because I think you guys just said a second ago in the prepared comments about your confidence in a final order here, I suppose, on the Genco by the end of September. How do you think about potential to provide any kind of example transaction or something that is a little bit more tangible for the stakeholders to look at and understand what you're proposing here, as well as just maybe commentary about the timeline itself on these larger loads?
So you just kind of married two process together, which we look at as separate and distinct. One is the JANCO declination process. That process is moving down the path we're confident that we'll get an order by the third quarter of this year independent of that but related is the process with the counterparties as i said those conversations are ongoing i think they're complex if you go back to the four pillars i just talked about we're really focused on meeting uh those four pillars and when we have something to announce with that process, we'll let you know. But two separate processes.
Okay, all right, no, fair enough. Hey, Lloyd, I definitely didn't mean to open that can of worms on marrying those two together, all right?
I'm glad you're keeping the can open. All the best, guys.
Question comes from the line of Nicholas Campaniello with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks for taking the time. I'll just ask one more follow-up, if I could. Just two separate processes. You have the counterparty contract process. You also have a third-quarter update, where I think you're going to be refreshing the long-term plan, it sounds like. How do those two juxtapose against each other?
Let me punt that to Sean on the third-quarter plan, Sean. Yeah, Nick, appreciate the question.
You know, we've been pretty sure to update the plans whenever we have the information credibly in front of you, whether that's quarter by quarter or if we do a full-blown refresh. So on the first instance, what we know about our regulated utility business is that it continues to need infrastructure investments, and we're going through the process of refreshing the 19.4 base plan to better understand the timing of cash flows and how those would sequence forward. What's driving that is increased need for generation, transmission, distribution, and system maintenance across the gas and the electric side of the business, same fundamental drivers that we're seeing those in place. We're also seeing more economic development and strategic growth initiatives. So we're focused on refreshing that plan and plan to have an update on the third quarter call. That said, we've got $2.2 billion of identified upside CapEx, and we'll see some of that upside CapEx flow whenever we see those projects become commercially viable and socialize with stakeholders. We don't have any of those to change place right now, but we do expect those to come to fruition here before the end of this year. So the $2.2 billion of upside CapEx plan will be another piece that we're trying to refresh and flow into the base plan as identified over the next five years. And then beyond that, we've got the incremental investment opportunities and specific to the data center opportunity itself. Once we have those concrete answers, we'll start to flow that information through our plans. And once we reach the same standard, credibility with counterparties, stakeholders, and surety of the cash inflow and outflow, we'll also roll those through our plan and make sure that we understand what the forward-looking guidance would be around our financial commitments. So all three of those could work at any time. We're not going to wait just for the third quarter call to do that per se, but obviously we see that as an opportunity to refresh thoughts on all three of those elements and plan to do so in Q3.
All right. That's very helpful. And then just a quick one, if I could, you're at the high end or you're above the midpoint, I guess, of 25 and you have an annual EPS growth target. So are we now kind of, when we think about where you could be in that target on the base plan today, 26 and 27, should we be basing that off of 188 today? Is that the way think about it.
Yeah, the base would be how we achieve results at the end of this year and then six to eight percent annual growth rate beyond those actual results. That's exactly right, Nick.
Thank you very much.
Thanks, Nick.
Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for the time today. Morning, thinking about the supply picture overall can you speak to turbine queue positions and just your confidence and ability to deliver new supply to meet any large load growth and then i'm curious kind of related to that you made some comments around the planned coal retirements and potential longer life to those assets how does that fit into the supply picture as you add load So, I'm going to throw this over to Michael Lohrs.
So, I appreciate the question, and I would just say Lloyd's highlighted and Sean have highlighted our disciplined approach associated with this. What I'll say and what we've provided is that we have put ourselves in a beneficial position associated with Qs in order to be able to have the equipment necessary to deliver on the opportunities. So we feel like we are in a good place and in a strong position to deliver on the fundamentals professionals, including being able to serve new customers with that speed and flexibility.
He talked about the extension of the coal plants. Melody, why don't you talk about where we are with the coal plant extensions?
Sure. Good morning. So, as you all know, the president passed an executive order earlier this year in April, and that order was shortly followed up by an executive order that was issued by Governor Braun in Indiana. And the order did call for the continued operation of all plants, all generation to meet the capacity needs. We've been working very closely with the state of Indiana. Our president, Vince Parisi, our team in Indiana has worked closely with the governor and his office to understand what that will look like in Indiana. Our plan is still the same to retire our Schaefer plant by the end of this year. However, we will make sure that we work closely with the state so that we're aligned. And so no changes have been made as of this point, but we will ensure that we understand what the governor's direction is and that we support that direction. But nonetheless, unless our plan is and remains the same per Shaper.
Understood. Thanks for the commentary there. And then turning to the financing strategy, how do you see the Genco playing into this in terms of potential impacts to near-term or medium-term earnings with the Genco structure before assets are in service or I guess abilities to structure around that and, you know, avoid any financing impacts until assets are in service. Do you see a path forward there without any earnings impacts? How do you think about that overall? Thank you.
Thanks, Rich. Yeah, I'll take that. I think we see a lot of flexibility in the structure as well as in the negotiations with customers. And then on top of that, the flexibility that we've built by strengthening the balance sheet over time, being thoughtful around raising equity as needed, and delivering on the commitments that we've committed in front of us. That includes the outperformance of the base business which continues to strengthen funds from operation and cash flow quality derived just from the work that we do each and every day. That's a critical element that continues to strengthen our financial flexibility and we believe that that can help support the operations that we need to as we move forward into the future flexibility needed. We've not disclosed exactly how we'll finance Genco. We'll retain the flexibility to evaluate that once we have the use of cash and the customer contracts that we will be delivering upon in front of us. That'll be something we'll evaluate to optimize the overall value and minimize the financing costs and friction involved with bringing on the infrastructure that we've talked about. So we retain a lot of the flexibility and the outperformance, both in terms of the strength and in the balance sheet and the base business producing incremental cash flows has put us in a great position to capitalize on this opportunity fairly efficiently.
Great. I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. In terms of the practical dynamics, so if the Genco application is approved in September and at that point, is there a lot of the contract terms that have already been pre-negotiated or would that cascade a series of negotiations um and legal discussions to be able to hit your targeted goal of achieving deals by the end of the year yeah so thanks for the question as i said earlier those are two separate processes i know we continue to our discussions with the counterparties and there'll be a set of terms associated with that
The GenCo declination process, we expect to get an order in the third quarter of this Those are two separate processes. We would not go back and renegotiate, is another way to think about it, yeah.
Yeah, but I mean, if you don't get the declination filing, I mean, that presumably stops that process and you're saying that you're just working at it regardless of the outcome.
Well, remember, the declination file, the order is a tool for us to, it gives us the opportunity for, remember I talked about our second pillar, speed and flexibility for our new customers. This is just a tool that facilitates that speed and flexibility. If there's a negative order, there are other tools, including House Bill 1007 out of Indiana, that allows us to implement, you know, these large low customers. So it is not the only tool to utilize this. Michael, you want to add anything to that?
The only thing I would add to it is saying, as we're working this, we're working multiple and parallel streams on many items. As was mentioned earlier, there's items around equipment. We're working those streams. We're working the regulatory streams as well, contractual streams, as well as many other parts of the processes. In doing that, and as mentioned before, we'd like to ensure that we consider all the alternatives that occur within those different processes so that in the end we can deliver on the opportunities both for our customers and for our stakeholders. So it's not one or the other or one and in spite of we are we are working multiple components to be able to ensure that those paths can come to fruition.
Okay and then an unrelated question on Schaefer Given HB 1007 and some of the recent state policies, can you speak to some of the cost recovery attributes of the recent initiatives in the state that are in place now to ensure timely recovery of any ongoing costs associated with keeping SHAPER on longer and how that could impact the review that's underway regarding potential life extension?
I think there's some things that got matched in there. House Bill 1007 has nothing to do with keeping Schaefer operating. I think Melody mentioned earlier we're in conversations with the state and at the federal level to understand that if we keep Schaefer operating, what those cost recovery mechanisms look like. So those conversations are still ongoing. Okay, thank you.
Your last question comes from the line of Steve Friegeman with Wolf Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Great. Good morning. Good morning, Steve. So just one on the Genco declination case, could you just remind us what process is left from here? I think there's filings from the parties, the non-signing parties due Friday, and is that the last event until we get in order pretty much? It's Friday the 8th, right?
Yeah. So that is the last step of the process. All the final filings are due, and then we continue to inspect an order from the commission by the third quarter.
And then lastly, Lloyd, sorry, I'm going to ask you to repeat this, but just I heard in your preparer remarks that you're, you know, very focused on converting this into reality and on track, but I didn't hear 2025. And then I heard in a question earlier that you're committed and expecting to get this done during 2025. Could you just clarify that you think you can convert this into reality in 2025?
Absolutely. I said, this is a 2025 event, and we are on track to execute that. And I said, we're two and a half quarters into the year, and we are on track to execute this opportunity. We're right where we need to be. Okay, that's super helpful.
Thank you.
That concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Lloyd Yates, CEO, for closing remarks.
Again, we continue to thank you for the questions and your interest in NYSORCE and hope you have a great rest of the day.
That concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.
SEC filing · Item 2.02
Filed Aug 6, 2025 · complete as-filed document
SEC periodic report
Filed Aug 6, 2025 · complete as-filed document