Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Pinnacle West Capital Corporation Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Amanda Ho. The floor is yours.

Thank you, Matthew. I would like to thank everyone for participating in this conference call and webcast to review our third quarter earnings, recent developments, and operating performance. Our speakers today will be our Chairman, President and CEO, Ted Geisler; and our CFO, Andrew Cooper. Jacob Tetlow, COO; and Jose Esparza, SVP of Public Policy, are also here with us. First, I need to cover a few details on the slides. The slides that we will be using are available on our Investor Relations website, along with our earnings release and related information. Today's comments and our slides contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations, and actual results may differ materially from expectations. Our third quarter 2025 Form 10-Q was filed this morning. Please refer to that document for forward-looking statements, cautionary language as well as the risk factors and MD&A sections which identify risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our disclosures. A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website for the next 30 days. It will also be available by telephone through November 10, 2025. I will now turn the call over to Ted.

Thank you, Amanda, and thank you all for joining us today. In the third quarter, we delivered strong operational and financial performance, underscoring the discipline and focus that define our strategy. Today, I'll share how we plan to continue to meet rising customer demand and how we successfully navigated a dynamic summer season. I'll also highlight our long-term planning efforts and strategic investments that position us for sustainable growth. Then Andrew will walk through how increased sales and transmission revenue have led us to revise our 2025 earnings guidance, along with our forward-looking financial expectations. Importantly, our long-term planning and resource procurement paid off as we reliably serve customers over multiple record peak days this quarter. I'm proud of our entire team for stepping up during the summer season to support our customers and communities with industry-leading reliability, a hallmark of our company. Our crews battled storms, flooding and extreme heat, yet we were prepared to ensure customers were taken care of with rapid response and operational excellence. Additionally, Palo Verde Generating Station operated at 100% capacity factor the entire summer, delivering a solid performance for our customers and the entire Desert Southwest region. Our peak demand record reflects the strong underlying economic growth in our service territory with weather-normalized sales growth of 5.4% and residential sales growth of 4.3% in the third quarter alone. Arizona's population growth remains robust, fueled by major employers expanding their operations and driving demand for skilled labor. The state's ability to attract and retain high-quality talent is truly a key differentiator and a powerful signal of the long-term economic vitality we're helping support. SEMICON West, recognized as North America's largest Microelectronic Exhibition and Conference, was held outside California for the first time in more than 50 years with Phoenix being selected as the host city. Our region's economic momentum continues to accelerate. Site Selection Magazine recently named Maricopa County, the top county in the nation for economic development in 2025, citing its success in attracting high-growth industries like semiconductors, data centers and logistics. Taiwan Semiconductor reaffirmed its commitment to Arizona, accelerating production of 2-nanometer wafers and advanced technologies. They also announced plans to acquire a second location in Phoenix to support their vision for a stand-alone giga-fab cluster. Meanwhile, Amkor Technology broke ground on a $7 billion advanced semiconductor packaging and testing facility, which is an increased investment of $5 billion over their original plans. The first phase is expected to be completed by mid-2027 with production beginning in early 2028. To support this growth, we're executing our plan for long-term investments in both transmission and baseload generation, which are essential to secure a reliable grid for the long term. In Q2, we announced our role as the anchor shipper on the Desert Southwest expansion project. And just days ago, we announced our plans to develop a new generation site near Gila Bend just southwest of Phoenix, which could add up to 2,000 megawatts of reliable and affordable natural gas generation to our customers. The Desert Sun Power Plant is a 2-phase project designed to serve both existing customers and the rising demand from extra-large energy users like data centers and manufacturers. Phase 1 is expected to begin serving committed customers by late 2030. Phase 2 is expected to support new demand from our queue of high load factor customers. Importantly, we're working with customers now to contract for the Phase 2 capacity using our subscription model, a commercial construct designed to ensure growth pays for growth while protecting affordability for all customers. Investment in generation alone will not be enough to support the growth in customer demand. We're making significant investments in transmission as well with multiple projects underway and more in development. These projects are expected to enhance reliability, resiliency and integration of new resources. They also expand our access to out-of-state generation and regional markets. Transmission investment benefits from constructive and timely recovery through our FERC formula rate and creates opportunities for additional wheeling revenues that support affordability for our retail customers. Turning to our pending rate case. We remain actively engaged with intervenors in responding to data requests and remain on track for a hearing in Q2 of next year. As we approach the end of 2025, our priorities remain clear: executing our mission to deliver reliable and affordable service to our customers, investing in baseload generation and transmission to serve growth, and achieving a constructive regulatory outcome that protects customer affordability while reducing regulatory lag. Thank you for your time today. I'll now turn it over to Andrew.

Thank you, Ted, and thanks again to everyone for joining us today. This morning, we released our third quarter 2025 financial results. I'll walk through the key drivers behind our performance, provide context on our updated 2025 guidance and share our outlook for 2026 and beyond. We reported earnings of $3.39 per share for the quarter, a modest increase of $0.02 year-over-year. This result was primarily attributable to higher transmission revenues and higher sales driven by robust sales growth across customer classes. These gains were partially offset by lower weather-driven sales compared to last year's Q3, higher interest expense, reduced pension and OPEB benefits and an increase in our outstanding share count. Based on strong sales growth along with above-normal weather, an increase in transmission revenues and contributions from El Dorado, we are raising our 2025 EPS guidance from a range of $4.40 to $4.60 per share, up to $4.90 to $5.10 per share. With the ability to derisk future operating expenses, our updated guidance reflects an increase to our forecasted O&M for the year to a range of $1.025 billion to $1.045 billion. Sales growth across all customer classes continues to be strong. We experienced 5.4% weather-normalized sales growth for the quarter, including 6.6% C&I growth, supported by the continued ramp-up of our large load customers and 4.3% residential growth. Year-to-date residential sales growth stands at 2%, exceeding our expectations and fueled by continued customer growth to the top end of our range. We are, therefore, narrowing our customer growth guidance range to the high end of 2% to 2.5% for the year. As we look ahead to 2026, we anticipate earnings per share of $4.55 to $4.75 per share. The expected year-over-year decrease compared to our revised 2025 earnings guidance is due to the projection of normal weather and higher financing and D&A costs as we work through the rate case process. We continue to expect robust customer and sales growth, increased transmission revenues, focused O&M management, and some positive contributions from our El Dorado subsidiary. Customer growth next year is expected at 1.5% to 2.5%, supported by Arizona's ongoing population and business expansion. Last year, we set a post-recession record with nearly 35,000 new meter sets. We're on track to match that figure again in 2025, and our forecast for 2026 customer additions remains strong. For overall sales growth, we expect weather-normalized sales to continue to grow at 4% to 6% in 2026. And with the strong residential sales growth trends and continued ramping and acceleration plans by our extra high load factor customers, including in the advanced manufacturing space, we are increasingly confident in our forecasted long-term sales growth range and are raising it from 4% to 6% to 5% to 7% and extending it through 2030. Our capital and financing strategy remain focused on enabling growth while maintaining affordability and financial discipline. We've updated our capital plan through 2028 to include critical strategic investments in transmission and generation that support reliability and the demands of our rapidly growing service territory. As highlighted by Ted, we look forward to developing these new resources for the benefit of our customers. These investments are expected to drive rate base growth of 7% to 9% through 2028, an increase from our prior guidance of 6% to 8% through 2027. To support this plan, we've updated our financing strategy for '26 through '28, maintaining a balanced mix of debt and equity aligned with our balance sheet targets. For 2026, approximately 85% of our equity need has already been priced with an additional $1 billion to $1.2 billion of Pinnacle West equity forecasted through 2028. On the O&M front, our 2026 outlook reflects our commitment to cost efficiency. We expect a slight year-over-year decrease despite continued customer growth, and we remain focused on reducing O&M per megawatt hour over the long term. Finally, we are affirming our long-term EPS growth guidance range of 5% to 7% based on the midpoint of our original 2024 guidance range. We recognize that regulatory lag will continue to be a factor in 2026. However, we remain confident in our long-term financial strategy. Our service territory offers unique advantages, including strong growth across all customer classes and a diversified economic base that includes advanced manufacturing, data centers, and continued population growth. Working closely with the Arizona Corporation Commission and stakeholders, we're committed to addressing regulatory lag, improving recovery timing and ensuring affordability as we continue serving new and existing customers. This concludes our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call back over to the operator for questions.

Your first question is coming from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies.

Nicely done, I have to say again. Let me start by addressing the gas build, which is a key focus for you. You've made good progress. How are you planning to provide visibility on 2029 and 2030, particularly based on what you've observed so far? Can you discuss what the trajectory might look like as you move forward? Additionally, could you elaborate on the timeline for getting this pipeline constructed and operational, given the tight timeframe we have to develop this generation?

Yes, Julien, thanks very much. And I'll start and then Andrew can talk about the capital plan. The pipeline is expected to be in service in 2029. We're staying very close to that project and remain confident in the milestones between here and there. And so as you know, that was the first key step. The second step then is starting to announce some of the generation capacity projects that we've been working on, Desert Sun being the first major announcement and project that we would expect. And so as we've said, we think about this in really two phases. The first phase is going to be necessary to support committed customers. That's a part of the 4.5 gigawatts that we've already committed to and are building out to serve. And we'd expect to be able to have that phase in service in 2030. So still a healthy margin past when the pipeline is in service, but a schedule that we're comfortable with meeting. Importantly, we've got all the key equipment secured, land interconnection is in place. So I think we're in a good spot to be able to deliver on that timeline. And then the second phase of that project, we've identified the opportunity to be able to serve our subscription customers. We've rolled out an opportunity to subscription customers for 1.2 gigawatts and we're actively working with those counterparties on their desired timing and ramp rate to be able to take advantage of that second phase. And that's one of the benefits of the subscription model is we can ensure that the delivery timeline of that second phase corresponds with the counterparties ramp rate, and we make sure that reliability is protected by keeping those two in sync. Both will, of course, take service from the new pipeline, but we're comfortable with the timing and how that coincides with the pipeline's in-service date. We'll continue to monitor pipeline progress along the way and be prepared to adjust if needed. But we're comfortable with the timeline we've laid out. Andrew, do you want to speak to the capital plan?

Sure. Yes. Julien, as specifically relates to the Desert Sun project, there is some of the capital related to that project, both on the generation side as well as small amounts on the transmission side in the current plan. You've got long lead equipment and land and things like that, that are in the plan. And certainly, given the in-service date that Ted is talking about for Phase 1, you would see that CapEx ramp up as we get closer to the end of the decade. Certainly around the broader capital plan as we work through the rate case and understand the dynamics of the formula rate and continue to develop our subscription model with our customers that will provide us the opportunity to give more visibility as we certainly want to make sure that, that growth pays for growth. But the plan that we've put forward through '28 reflects the beginnings of some of those really big longer lead time investments we're making on the generation and transmission side. You could see it in the 2028 kind of new run rate for transmission investments and some of the additional information we provided about our ability to start to look at that additional $6 billion backlog of FERC-regulated transmission assets and start to begin to develop those in parallel with a project like Desert Sun. So that's the plan. We feel good about the plan through '28. And as we are able to certainly provide more information about the timeline through the end of the decade, and we've tried to start to do that with some of the construction work in progress disclosure that we've been providing over the last few quarters.

Got it. And excellent. Just you kind of teed up the next piece. How is that progress going on the subscription part? You talked about this 1.2 gigawatt opportunity. Where are you in sort of 'filling that bucket' or that opportunity?

Yes, we've got active dialogue. This was Tranche 1 of our subscription and recognize that the timing of Tranche 1 coincides with developing that Phase 2 of Desert Sun as well as the in-service of the new pipeline. So we're working with counterparties now to match that up with their desired in-service timing. But conversations are active, and we remain optimistic in being able to deploy subscription model to both continue to serve part of the 20-gigawatt queue that is ready to begin service in our service territory while also designing it in a way that helps with financing and protects customer affordability. So I think the key elements of the model have been well received by the market. We're actively working with counterparties, and it's going to be a good way to be able to serve that queue both now and going forward.

Yes. Fair enough. One little detail here on '26, you've got this $0.55 bump here on transmission. That's a sustainable level, right? That's a pretty big bump.

Yes. Julien, we'll provide guidance as we go forward, obviously, on that. But I think it's reflective of the trend. We've been very committed to investing in our FERC-regulated transmission business, and that's some of the capital that I've been talking about. So it's because of that need to access resources from further afield and to serve our growth. And given the FERC construct, the formula rate, and the amount of capital that we've stepped into there, this is just a natural reflection of the plan that we've put forward and converting it now into annual earnings opportunity.

Your next question is coming from Nicholas Campanella from Barclays.

This is Fei for Nick today. So quickly, just one clarification on equity dilution, if I could. So since 2026 equity need is 85% taken care of, which is the $550 million already priced as you put in the slide. What's the true incremental equity needs for '26 through '28, especially when we look at the $1 billion to $1.2 billion total equity used for the 3-year guidance period? And also, I guess, how should we think about the cadence of issuing through '26 and '27? And how should we think about any equity mitigation given the strong sales growth backdrop that you just provided in the update?

Thanks, Fei. So yes, on the equity, as you pointed out, we have substantially derisked the need in '26 through all the equity that we've priced both through the block issuance we did in 2024 and our use of our ATM over the last two years. So it would feel like we're in a good position. If we look over the incremental need over the three years, that '26 to '28 period, that's what that $1 billion to $1.2 billion represents. And so certainly, these projects are lumpy. So the cadence of issuance need kind of goes with that. That's where an ATM has worked well for us to date to be able to time our drawdowns and our issuance with the CapEx as we go through some of these larger projects. But your last question around mitigation is really the key one. When you think about that range and our ability to meet our long-term aspirations around a balanced capital structure and to minimize the amount of equity dilution within that balanced capital structure, it really comes back to all the work we're doing both around reducing regulatory lag through the rate case process, to improve retained earnings and our ability to fund that capital from internally generated funds. And then to look to our large load customers in the subscription discussion to make sure that to the extent that we could secure cash upfront to fund those investments that it reduces the need for us to go out to the market for equity. So while that's the range today of forecasted need, we're going to continue to work through the rate case process and the engagement on the large load side to try to mitigate that as much as possible.

Got it. That's very helpful. And secondly, just on the transmission capital investment slide you laid out, I appreciate the clarity on the $2.6 billion cumulative transmission CapEx through '28, and also the $6 billion plus through 2034. Could you just comment on your assumption on annual transmission CapEx post 2028? And how should we interpret the $6 billion plus, especially on what's contributing and driving the upside?

Yes. So we haven't laid out the specifics of the plan post 2028 because these are really the projects that are reflected in the 10-year strategic transmission plan that we file with the commission every other year. There are a host of projects in there, 500 or 600 miles of high-voltage lines that we're developing to meet different needs. And there's some fungibility in terms of do you develop this line with or that line? So we're doing a lot of that work today. The way I would think about it overall is that we went from under $200 million a year of run rate CapEx 5 years ago in transmission for just sort of the local area projects, the things that we do that are 69-kV plus. That number is increasing to the $300 million to $400 million range of just the blocking and tackling CapEx we do on the transmission side. And so the increments above that, that you see almost in the potential for that $850-plus million number to be a run rate. There is a baseline $300 million to $400 million in there. And then the increment above that is reflective of the beginning of investing in the strategic transmission projects. But it's a really long runway, and the number will vary from year to year. But I think if you look at 2028, that is a reflection of the opportunity on an ongoing basis through the combination of core transmission and that increment from strategic transmission.

Got it. That's super helpful. If I could, just another quick clarification. On the robust sales growth guidance you refreshed. I guess seeing a really elevated level of 5% to 7% through 2030, while looking at a 7% to 9% rate base growth is through 2028. I guess can you comment on your confidence level to possibly extend the 7% to 9% rate base growth further into the horizon? And I guess, what could be the key drivers contributing to that?

We have outlined our rate base projections through 2028. One reason for our increased confidence is the upcoming launch of long lead projects, particularly the expansion of our Redhawk natural gas facility in 2028. As we move into 2029, 2030, and beyond, additional large projects will come online, and we are already noticing higher sales growth, particularly from large load customers. As we advance our capital expenditure plan regarding Desert Sun and the $6 billion strategic transmission project we discussed, we will continue to monitor our rate base growth. We believe that there is significant potential for growth in this area. The information on construction work in progress that I mentioned earlier is also a useful indicator of the projects that we have underway, extending into 2029 and 2030, which can help in assessing future growth prospects.

Your next question is coming from Shar Pourreza from Wells Fargo.

This is actually Alex on for Shar. So just on the growth rate outlook, just you guys are still targeting that 5% to 7% of the '24 midpoint. Just in the context of today's new '26 guidance, can you just help frame what you might use as your new base? And will you roll forward the plan as soon as the rate case is concluded?

Sure. Yes. So really, the rate case becomes a precipitant for us to look at all that. And if you think about base years, we really try to set as high a bar for ourselves as we can to make sure that we're consistently meeting or exceeding expectations and doing so in the right way. We want to get to the point where that 5% to 7% becomes evergreen. Right now, we're in a situation where earnings are lumpy. We go and we have a rate case and we get a rate increase, and then there's regulatory lag through a lengthy rate case process. The formula rate is really an important element here to be able to convert that earnings growth rate from being kind of a long-term look at '24 and then look at '28 to something that can be more evergreen. So as we work through the rate case process and the structure of the formula rate, we'll be much better positioned to talk about what all that looks like. Ultimately, that's the goal is to be able to deliver year in, year out, produce more modest increases year-over-year for customers as well. That's a really important part of it. Ultimately, that creates the better stability for us around our earnings growth.

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then just switching gears here, can you provide more insight on the megawatt pipeline related to the hyperscaler side and how you view the capacity needs for the first generation?

Yes, sure, Alex. So we continue to see just a robust pipeline of demand. As we've articulated in the slides, we've got 4.5 gigawatts of incremental demand that we've already committed to. That's in part what Desert Sun is going to be serving as well as future generation and transmission investments that are included in our guidance period and will have to be developed even beyond. But in addition to that, we want to start making progress on committing and serving part of the 20 gigawatts of uncommitted load that is in our current queue. And so that's also a part of what Desert Sun will begin to be able to serve. But of course, we anticipate wanting to be able to offer much more than just that initial tranche of 1.2 gigawatts. So the intent is to contract that first tranche, and then we'll continue to identify generation and transmission capacity expansion opportunities as we get to a certain point in the predevelopment of those projects to where we are confident in the timing and level of capacity available for us to be able to offer, we'll go to the market and offer another tranche service to that uncommitted queue. The bottom line is we anticipate being able to continuously offer capacity to eat into that 20 gigawatts, and we think the 1.2 gigawatts that we've offered recently is just the first step into that trajectory.

Your next question is coming from Travis Miller from Morningstar.

I just want to confirm on the guidance for '26. There's no contribution from the rate case. Is that correct? And then if that's correct, any ideas or guidance you could give on what maybe a dollar increase, so to speak, would be in the back end of the year? Any thoughts there?

Yes, Travis, you're correct. We have not made any assumptions for rate case conclusion that informed our 2026 guidance. As we said, we do anticipate the case resolving in the last quarter of the year. Given that such a small quarter for us anyhow and the timing just didn't seem prudent for us to be able to make any assumptions at this point. But certainly, once the case concludes, that will allow us to step back and reevaluate the constructive nature of the outcome and what that means in terms of forward-looking guidance. So we'd look for further updates once the case concludes on all those aspects.

Okay, that makes sense. Can you elaborate on the 4.5 gigawatts of committed customers? Are any of those customers going to your system-wide base with residential or small commercial? How would you break down that 4.5 gigawatts?

Yes. The 4.5 gigawatts is a nice balance and blend between incremental industrial growth, such as chip manufacturing, TSMC and Amkor being examples of that, as well as their supply basis, as well as, of course, data centers that are already in development or even in service, but we expect to ramp through this period. Importantly, we continue to see just steady and robust residential and small business growth. I'd say that's one of the hallmarks of our growth story is a very diversified story, not too dependent on one industry or customer base or another. Maricopa County just recently ranked top county for economic development in 2025, and it's the third fastest in the U.S.; Phoenix just ranked number one of the top 15 growth markets for manufacturing. All of that is separate from a data center story. It just shows the true underlying growth. We're also pleased to see that affordability still is a hallmark of our service territory, favorable cost of living. Phoenix inflation is growing at about 1.4% versus a national average of 2.9%. So I think there's a lot of drivers behind why we're seeing diversified growth in that 4.5 gigawatts represents all sectors, which gives us confidence in the growth rate, but also means that we've got a lot of infrastructure to deploy to continue to keep up with the various sectors that are demanding it.

Okay, that sounds good. Will most of that 4.5 gigawatts be included in the rate base, or will some of it be part of the subscription model that might fall outside the rate base?

Well, let's be clear, all of our investment goes in the rate base. The subscription model still goes into rate base. We are just contracting with those customers. Think about it as more of a special rate agreement rather than out of rate base, and that special rate agreement just ensures that growth pays for growth and that the timing of their ramp coincides with the timing of the ramp of the infrastructure to be built to serve them, as well as potentially getting their help to finance some of that infrastructure so that we maintain a healthy balance sheet as we grow these rate base investments, specifically for data centers. So it's all going in the rate base. It's just a matter of how you recover the dollars is really the difference in the subscription model.

Your next question is coming from Steve D’Ambrisi from RBC Capital Markets.

I just was hoping for a little bit more color on the year-over-year change in sales growth as an EPS driver. I know for '25 guidance, you had embedded $0.58. And for '26 guidance, it looks like you're embedding $0.39. I guess I would just step back and say it doesn't seem like the magnitude or mix is really that different given both years were 4% to 6% total, of which 3% to 5% was from large C&I. So can you just give a little color there? Is it mix within the C&I classes? Or what's driving the difference in EPS magnitude uplift from sales growth?

Yes, you're correct that 2026 has a smaller contribution. This is due to the variability in the ramp rate of a significant group of customers from year to year. As we've been active in the data center market, we've improved our forecasting abilities on a customer level, identifying those who are testing equipment and those who are ramping up. There is variation among customers, but the number from residential small businesses remains stable. This quarter, our guidance reflects expectations for strong new customer additions and a positive contribution from residential sales, even amidst challenges from energy efficiency and distributed generation. The key factor is the year-to-year variability among our large load customers. We aim to emphasize the long-term relationship with our customers, and we are confident about the growth trajectory in the coming years, including an increase in sales growth guidance by 100 basis points. This also means the extra load factor contribution increases by the same amount. Overall, we're optimistic despite some variability during the year, especially when paired with ongoing customer growth and the continuous conversion of our transmission investments into revenue through our FERC formula. We're feeling quite confident about the overall outcome.

That's really helpful. And I guess like that would be like the put and take versus what kind of we were assuming is just sales growth versus transmission. I know Julien asked about it, but can you talk a little bit more about that? Clearly throughout the rest of the plan, transmission growth steps up materially into '28? And so does that $0.55 benefit scale linearly with the increase in transmission spending? Or is there something that's causing super normal growth in recoveries?

Yes. Over time, it should align with the investment we make. We start seeing returns fairly quickly when we put assets into service. However, we may experience some irregularities in the short term due to the $300 million to $400 million run rate projects, which are smaller and completed within a year or possibly two at the most. We're now advancing into projects that may take longer to construct. We're considering whether we can energize parts of these longer lines in segments to minimize regulatory delays, especially for projects like a 100-mile line. This approach helps us convert opportunities into earnings. Additionally, the transmission opportunity is linked to the broader wholesale market, allowing us to mitigate some of the impacts on our retail customers as others utilize our system, contributing positively to our customer affordability strategy. We are also undertaking some larger projects, which will ultimately support scaling over the long term. However, there may be some irregularities within the year due to the longer lead time projects that exceed the core $300 million to $400 million range, which can take several years to become operational.

Thank you. That completes our Q&A session. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.