Plug Power (PLUG $1.50 +3.45%) reported Q3 2026 results on November 9, after the market closed: revenue of $200.6M, 3.8% above the $193.3M consensus of 13 analysts and $3.9M above our forecast of $196.7M. Our preview, published November 2, called a small revenue beat above the $194.8M floor Plug had set on October 15, when it said revenue grew more than 10% from Q3 2025. Revenue grew 13.3%.
We also said the headline gross margin would slip from Q2's near break-even and that a non-cash gain on Plug's convertible notes and warrants would push GAAP earnings per share well above the adjusted figure. Both happened. The gross margin was -2.7%, against -0.9% in Q2, and Plug reported GAAP net income of $99.8M, or $0.07 a basic share, on $192M of mark-to-market gains.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for PLUG:
Our forecast against the results
| $M unless stated | Our forecast | Consensus | Actual | Our error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equipment and infrastructure | 97.0 | n/a | 105.7 | -8.7 |
| Services | 31.0 | n/a | 29.0 | +2.0 |
| Power purchase agreements | 27.5 | n/a | 27.7 | -0.2 |
| Fuel | 41.0 | n/a | 38.1 | +2.9 |
| Revenue | 196.7 | 193.3 | 200.6 | -3.9 |
| Gross profit | -9.0 | n/a | -5.4 | -3.6 |
| Gross margin | -4.6% | n/a | -2.7% | -1.9 points |
| Loss-contract provision release | 5.0 | n/a | 10.4 | -5.4 |
Consensus is the 13-analyst mean captured on October 27, the figure the preview used. Revenue lines exclude "other" revenue of under $0.5M a quarter.
What the model got right
The floor did the work. More than half of the consensus range, $180.1M to $201.1M, sat below what Plug had already disclosed. We started from the $194.8M floor and built each product line up from Q2. The total came in $3.9M above our number and $7.3M above the consensus.
Equipment led, as management said it would. CFO Paul Middleton had said the second half would "mostly come from equipment volume". Equipment and infrastructure revenue rose to $105.7M from $81.9M in Q2, the biggest single move in the quarter. Plug deployed 1,136 GenDrive fuel cell units, more than double the 540 of Q3 2025.
The margin slipped, and GAAP EPS jumped. Both calls rested on reading the 10-Q rather than the headline. Q2's -0.9% gross margin included a $15.7M release of loss-contract provisions, and the stock's 28% fall in Q3 meant the convertible notes and warrants, which are marked to market, would produce a gain. The notes added $108.3M and the warrants $84.2M. Plug put the effect at about $0.12 a share, so without it the result is a loss of about $0.05 a share, against our -$0.06 and the -$0.062 consensus.
What the model got wrong
The product mix. Equipment beat our number by $8.7M, but services and fuel came in $2.0M and $2.9M below it. Fuel revenue fell from $39.5M in Q2 to $38.1M, where we had assumed it would keep growing from Q2.
The size of the provision release. We assumed Plug would release about $5.0M of loss-contract provisions, close to Q3 2025's $4.3M. It released $10.4M. That accounts for the whole gap between our -4.6% and the reported -2.7%. Without the releases, the gross margin was -7.9%, a little weaker than the -7.1% underlying margin we modeled and an improvement on Q2's -9.7%.
Margins by line. Equipment ran at -0.4% against the 3.6% we assumed, so the extra volume did not carry the margin we expected. Power purchase agreements did better than we modeled, at -16.1% against our -27%, and fuel worse, at -51.9% against -45%. Services ran at about 30.5% before the provision release, against our 27%; Plug called its service margin about 31%.
Cash and the balance sheet
Unrestricted cash was $134.1M at September 30, in line with the October 15 estimate, and net cash usage fell to about $28M from about $61M in Q2. Restricted cash was $468.9M, $146.3M of it current. Operating expenses were $69.9M, helped by a $25.8M gain on selling property, plant and equipment and weighed down by a $16.6M impairment.
The notes and warrants that produced this quarter's gain work both ways. They are marked to the share price every quarter, so a rising stock in Q4 would turn the gain into a charge.
What management said
“Our third quarter results reflect continued progress toward a stronger, more profitable Plug. We grew revenue, improved margins, and significantly reduced cash usage through disciplined execution.” Jose Luis Crespo, CEO, Q3 2026 results release
What changes for Q4
Plug kept its 2026 revenue growth guide of 15% to 16% and its target of positive EBITDAS in Q4. On 2025 revenue of $710.0M, the guide means $816.5M to $823.6M for the year. With $542.4M booked in the first nine months, Q4 needs $274.1M to $281.2M, or $277.6M at the midpoint. That is 38% more than Q3 and 23% more than Q4 2025, and slightly below our preview's $281.4M and the $285.0M consensus, because Q3 delivered more of the year than we assumed.
Two things decide whether Plug gets there. The first is volume: revenue has to rise about $77M from Q3, and management has pointed to equipment, which rose $23.8M from Q2 to Q3. The second is margin. Positive EBITDAS in Q4 needs gross profit to cover operating costs. Middleton put the cost run rate at "roughly $75 million a quarter" in August; on $277.6M of revenue that needs a gross margin near 27% before depreciation and stock pay are added back, against -2.7% in Q3 and 2.4% in Q4 2025. Those add-backs close part of the gap, but the margin, not the revenue, is the number to watch in Q4.
Sources
- Plug Power Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K filed November 9, 2026 (SEC accession 0001104659-26-124487; see PLUG documents).
- Our Q3 preview: Plug Power (PLUG) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
- Consensus: PLUG analyst estimates, 13-analyst mean captured on October 27, 2026.
- Quarterly history: PLUG financials and earnings calls.
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.