Stock Market Research
Data-driven company analysis and original studies from Equibles, grounded in disclosed primary sources and documented methods.
IREN Limited (IREN) Q1 FY27 Earnings Preview and Forecast
We forecast Q1 FY27 revenue of $239.9M for IREN, 8.4% above the $221.3M consensus, because Microsoft's Horizon 1 doubled operating ARR to $1 billion in mid-August. The December quarter looks in line, and funding a $25 to $30 billion capital plan is the bigger question.
How Much Do Stocks Move After Earnings? Evidence From 12,353 S&P 500 Reports
In 2026 so far, 13.3% of S&P 500 earnings reports moved the stock 10% or more on the next trading day, more than one in eight, against one in 23 in 2021, and the average move grew from 3.4% to 5.3%. Technology stocks moved 8.0% on average over the last four quarters, utilities 1.9%.
Upstart (UPST) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast
We forecast Q3 2026 revenue of $370.4M for Upstart, 1.5% above the $364.8M consensus, on $4.12B of originations the company has already published. The risk is the full-year adjusted EBITDA target of about $294M, which needs about $95M in Q4; we forecast $84.4M.
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast
We forecast Q3 2026 revenue of $894.6M for Hims & Hers Health, in line with the $892.8M consensus and the top half of the $880M to $900M guide, with adjusted EBITDA of $88.0M. The bigger test is Q4, where consensus sits above what the full-year guide implies.
Agentic AI Has Overtaken Generative AI on Earnings Calls: Evidence From 5,305 S&P 500 Calls
“Agentic” came up on 20.3% of S&P 500 earnings calls held from July to September 2026, up from 0.2% in early 2024, while “generative AI” fell from 16.8% to 5.6%. Anthropic is now named on nearly as many calls as OpenAI, and DeepSeek, the AI developer named on the most calls in early 2025, has all but disappeared.
Reddit (RDDT) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast
We forecast Q3 2026 revenue of $900.6M for Reddit, 2.9% above the $875.0M consensus, and EPS of $1.41 against $1.32. Ad pricing carries the quarter, while US daily users and the Google licensing talks will decide how the stock reacts.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast
We forecast Q3 2026 revenue of $1.27B for SoFi Technologies, 1% above the $1.257B consensus, and full-year revenue of $4.89B, above the top of guidance. Earnings are the real test: consensus EPS of $0.166 needs a margin about five points above Q2's, and we forecast $0.16.
Are Companies Still Talking About Tariffs? Evidence From 4,952 S&P 500 Earnings Calls
Tariffs came up on 89.0% of S&P 500 earnings calls held from April to June 2025 and on 32.7% of those held from July to September 2026, with mentions per call down 79.7%. Most of what remains comes from calls about tariff refunds, a phrase said 388 times last quarter against three times in all of 2025.
Does a Form 144 Filing Mean the Stock Will Drop? Evidence From 75,654 Insider Sale Notices
Across 75,654 Form 144 notices, stocks did not drop after insiders filed to sell. They beat the median listed stock by 2.23 points over a year and trailed the S&P 500 by 14.03, a gap the same stocks also showed a year later. What a filing reliably signals is a prior rally.
Nebius Group (NBIS) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast
We forecast Q3 2026 revenue of $934.5M for Nebius Group, 3% above the $904.8M consensus, and full-year revenue of $3.34B at the top of guidance. Any year-end ARR above about $7.9B would lift 2026 revenue past the guided range, and the balance sheet is far stronger than CoreWeave's.
Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast
We forecast Q3 2026 revenue of $128M for Emergent BioSolutions, at the top of its $110–130M guidance, and full-year revenue of $690M, above the $645–675M range. The $75M note repurchase is complete, and two smallpox orders the government has not announced yet decide whether 2026 beats.
Buybacks Roundup, Oct 5–11, 2026: One Mega Authorization From Geo Group Lifts the Week
Geo Group's $1.25 billion repurchase program accounts for 97.4% of the week's $1.28 billion total and dwarfs the other three programs combined by 66.8x, even as the company carries negative free cash flow. Three of the four authorizations land on repeat or first-time repurchasers across banks, aerospace and defense, and packaged foods.
Oklo's reactor milestone puts Aurora's economics in focus
Groves strengthens Oklo's execution case, but Aurora's costs, power contracts and financing will decide shareholder returns. A closer look at the customer agreements, cash balance and share issuance shows what the next milestones must establish.
Palantir's guide raise tilts bull, but share-count creep keeps the spread thin
Read on Palantir: U.S. commercial growth, RPO quality, dilution math, and the Q3 2026 print against the $2.16B revenue band that decides the multiple debate.
What Happens After Stock Buyback Announcements? Evidence From 430 Companies
We tracked verified stock buyback announcements across 430 U.S.-listed companies. The typical stock beat SPY briefly, then lagged by 0.9 percentage points after 63 trading sessions.
Introducing Our New Short Interest Forecast Model
Equibles has launched a new short interest forecast model. It predicted direction correctly 61.6% of the time, rising to 72.3% for its strongest signals.
IREN’s AI Cloud build now depends on Horizon execution
IREN has assembled $4 billion of contracted ARR through project finance, customer prepayments and equity. Horizon delivery and cash conversion will determine how much value reaches shareholders.
Do Congressional Stock Trades Beat the Market?
We tested 17,859 congressional stock disclosures. Copying buys or sells after disclosure trailed the S&P 500; buys did not reliably beat sells.
Three First-Time Repurchasers Put $634M on the Table, Led by HNI's $284M Program
The week's three authorizations are all first-time programs, with HNI Corp's $284.3M authorization the largest, and two of the three (HNI and United States Antimony) sit on cash that covers less than half the new ceiling.
What Happens After an Insider Buys? Evidence From 47,458 Open-Market Purchases
Across 47,458 insider open-market purchases, the headline changes with the benchmark: the same stocks lag the S&P 500 by 12.95 points over a year and beat the median listed stock by 2.56 points. The first purchase after two quiet years exposes the trap. Its modest return beats a weak broad-stock benchmark but trails the typical S&P 500 company; the still-larger index gap reflects mega-cap leadership. The weakness persists in shifted windows, so the drought is neither a buy nor a short signal. What does survive the placebo is inverted: the largest insider cheques are followed by the worst relative returns.