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ASTH · Astrana Health, Inc.

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$40.81 +3.02 (+7.99%) At close · Aug 14
Market Cap
$2.27B
Shares
55.74M
All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2025 Q4

Astrana Health, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Astrana Health, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Concluded Mar 2, 2026 Audio replay Verified speakers
Mar 2, 2026 51:32 34 turns
Period
FY2025 Q4
Runtime
51:32
Sources
4 artifacts

Executive readout · one minute

What matters this quarter

Astrana Health delivered record FY2025 results with $3.2B in revenue, $205.4M in adjusted EBITDA, and $104.5M in free cash flow, while Q4 revenue grew 43% YoY to $950.5M and adjusted EBITDA rose 50% YoY to $52.5M.

Prospect acquisition integration and synergies 55 Medicaid and D-SNP/HICS headwinds and guidance assumptions 32 Membership growth and geographic diversification 22 Record financial results and multi-year track record 22 Medical cost and utilization management 19 Disciplined full-risk progression 13

Management tone

Confident

Net tone +72 · moderate hedging

Grounding quotes
  • “Estrana delivered another year of record revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow, extending their track record of consistent performance”
  • “In a year marked by regulatory recalibration, industry cost pressure, and broader market volatility. Our model performed exactly as designed, demonstrating stability, predictability, and operating leverage”
  • “We are still on track for approximately 80% of our revenue and more than 36% of our own membership to be in full-risk arrangements by the end of the first quarter, 2026”
  • “across diverse populations engagement remained the core driver of performance annual wellness visit completion rates approached 80 percent in our legacy astronauta markets with meaningful gain”

Forward guidance

10 guided metrics

Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.

Research coverage

4 live sources

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Revenue · derived Q4 $950.52M +42.9% YoY
Net income · derived Q4 $6.00M

Research materials

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Key takeaways

What improved, and what deserves a closer read.

Constructive signals

  • Q4 revenue rose 43% YoY to $950.5M and adjusted EBITDA rose 50% YoY to $52.5M.
  • Full-year revenue of $3.2B, adjusted EBITDA of $205.4M, free cash flow of $104.5M, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.20 were all company records.
  • California revenue grew 50% YoY and revenue outside California grew 90% YoY, with non-California now ~19% of total.
  • Board doubled the share repurchase program authorization from $50M to $100M, with $35.9M remaining at year-end.
  • On track for ~80% of revenue and >36% of own membership in full-risk arrangements by end of Q1 2026, with encouraging early performance from recently commenced contracts.
  • Annual wellness visit completion approached 80% in legacy Astrana markets, supporting better-than-projected 4.5% medical cost trend at Legacy Astrana.

Risks & pressure points

  • Company disclosed it will file Form 12b-25 and anticipates a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting related to acquisition and purchase accounting processes.
  • Approximately 10% Medicaid and low-tens-of-percentages HICS disenrollment expected as headwinds to 2026, with potential rate/acuity mismatch from adverse selection.
  • Care enablement business guided to a sustained 20–25% EBITDA margin range, below the prior 50%+ level.
  • Several full-risk contracts expected to commence in mid-2025 were delayed into early 2026.
  • 2026 guidance assumes no tuck-in M&A contribution despite the company citing many opportunities in the market.

Forward guidance

From the 8-K filed Mar 2, 2026.

Metric Guided
Net income table
Year Ending December 31, 2026
$54M – $74M
EBITDA table
Year Ending December 31, 2026
$208M – $238M
Net Income
2026
$54M – $74M
Provision for income taxes
2026
$38M – $44M
Interest expense
2026
$51M – $55M
Depreciation and amortization
2026
$65M
EBITDA
2026
$208M – $238M
Other, net
2026
$7M
Income from equity method investments
2026
$-4M
Stock-based compensation
2026
$39M

Quarter detail

How the reported period landed and where the business moved.

Capital returned

Buybacks · derived
$15.00M
Full-screen source Call document