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CP · Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd/Cn

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$93.50 -0.42 (-0.45%) At close · Aug 14
Market Cap
$82.19B
Shares
879.08M
All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2025 Q4

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd/Cn Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd/Cn Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Concluded Jan 28, 2026
Jan 28, 2026 50 turns
Period
FY2025 Q4
Runtime
Sources
4 artifacts

Executive readout · one minute

What matters this quarter

CPKC reported Q4 2025 revenue of $3.9 billion (up 1%) and a record core adjusted operating ratio of 55.9% (120 bps improvement), with full-year revenue up 4% to $15.1 billion and core adjusted EPS up 8% to $4.61. For 2026, the company guided to mid-single-digit volume growth and low double-digit core adjusted EPS growth, supported by record Canadian and U.S. grain harvests.

Merger synergies 38 Capital investment 37 Tariff and trade environment 36 Grain harvest tailwind 23 Operational performance and PSR 20 Safety record 20

Management tone

Confident

Net tone +68 · low hedging

Grounding quotes
  • “we fully expect to deliver another year of mid-single-digit volume growth enabled by the strength in our bulk business and particularly, the unique growth drivers the franchise has”
  • “We expect to continue improving margins and ultimately deliver low double-digit earnings growth”
  • “we're super excited about the opportunities ahead”
  • “an industry best operating ratio of 55.9%, 120 basis points of improvement and earnings per share of $1.33, up 3% versus last year”

Forward guidance

3 guided metrics

Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.

Research coverage

4 live sources

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Revenue · derived Q4 3.92B CAD +1.3% YoY
Net income · derived Q4 1.08B CAD -10.3% YoY

Research materials

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Key takeaways

What improved, and what deserves a closer read.

Constructive signals

  • Record CPKC core adjusted operating ratio of 55.9% in Q4, a 120 bps improvement, with full-year OR improving 140 bps to a record-low 59.9%
  • Full-year revenue up 4% to $15.1 billion and core adjusted EPS up 8% to $4.61
  • 2026 guidance for low double-digit core adjusted EPS growth and mid-single-digit volume growth
  • Record Canadian grain harvest of 85 million metric tons (vs. previous record of 78 million) plus a record U.S. harvest, providing a strong growth base into 2026
  • Announced a 5% share buyback program for 2026 and 100 new locomotives joining the fleet in 2026
  • Lowest FRA-reportable train accident frequency among Class 1 railroads for the third consecutive year, with full-year accident rate down 16% to 0.85

Risks & pressure points

  • Q4 reported diluted EPS declined to $1.20 from $1.28 in Q4 2024
  • Q4 saw 22% increase in FRA personal injuries to 1.05, despite a 12% improvement in train accident frequency to 0.91
  • 2026 capex of $2.65 billion, while a ~15% reduction from 2025, still represents a significant capital outlay
  • Macro/tariff environment assumed to remain a headwind in 2026 plans; land bridge volume was backfilled but trade policy volatility persists
  • Q4 grain volumes were weaker than expected, with the larger-than-usual carryover pushing shipments into 2026 rather than Q4

Key moments

Jump directly to management's words in the synchronized transcript.

“Grain harvest, an all-time record in Canada, 85 million metric tons versus the previous record of 78 million metric tons, a significant amount of grain to move that's carried into the full year of 2026.” Keith Creel, CEO

Forward guidance

From the 8-K filed Jan 28, 2026.

Metric Guided
Capital expenditures Initiated
full year 2026
$2.65B
Core adjusted effective tax rate Initiated
full year 2026
24.75%
Other components of net periodic benefit recovery Initiated
full year 2026
$441M

Quarter detail

How the reported period landed and where the business moved.

Capital returned

Buybacks · derived
397.00M CAD
Dividend / share
$0.17
Full-screen source Call document